December 2014 Greenwich Real Estate Sales on Pace for a Good Month and Good Quarter

The last quarter of 2014 is actually starting to look good. The final November numbers are in from SearchGreenwich.net the gold standard for sales and we had 46 sales last month. Five of these sales are private sales which added to the 41 GMLS sales puts us at the same level as the very good year of 2013.  The 46 sales are also 10 units above the 8 year average of 36 sales.

Sales 2012 - 2014 NovFnl.121414

So far in December what have had only 26 sales versus the 8 year average of 46 sales, but December is always a screwy month for sales. December being further into the winter and the heart of the holiday season you’d expect to have lower sales, but it’s also when tax motivated sales get done and many of these get done between Christmas and New Years so there is yet hope for this December to continue the streak of good sales.

Price Range No. of Dec. Sales
<$1M 6
$1 – 2M 11
$2 – 5M 7
>$5M 2
Total 26

We have fallen to 77 pending contracts down from 85 just a week ago. Inventory is down to 445 active single family homes and will continue to fall. Of those 445 listings only 33 have come on in the last 30 days and only 52 in the last 45 days.

Through November we have 635 sales, If we get another 26 sales in the second half of December, we will end the year with 687 sales; better than 2012’s 660 sales (even with its record 86 sales in Dec. 2012), but not as high as 2013 sales of 724 houses sold. So the year should be down about 5% over last year, but total sales volume will be the highest post-recession year as over $3 million has done so well in Greenwich.

Greenwich Open Houses for Sunday, Dec. 14, 2014 – 15 Open Houses from $585K to $10.85M

It is not too late to find the perfect gift – a new home! There are 15 Open Houses in Greenwich this weekend! The homes for sale range in price from $585,000 to $10,850,000. The times vary so plan your tour carefully.

Please click here for the interactive map. The static map is below. The December market report is below.

Thanks to Rob Pulitano for preparing the list of Open Houses and the interactive map and to Pam Toner for the hot links and the Word document.

Address Town Price Time Broker
246 West Avenue Stamford $585,000 1-3 PM Berkshire Hathaway
57 Richmond Drive Old Greenwich $895,000 3-5 PM Coldwell Banker
14 Cat Rock Road Cos Cob $965,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
285 Bruce Park Ave Greenwich $1,195,000 1-3 PM Weichert
23 Sound Beach Avenue Old Greenwich $1,249,000 1-3 PM Shore & Country
51 Glen Road Greenwich $1,395,000 1-3 PM Berkshire Hathaway
61 Hillside Drive Greenwich $1,475,000 3-5 PM Sotheby’s
17 Lincoln Avenue Greenwich $2,795,000 1-4 PM Sotheby’s
106 Patterson Avenue Greenwich $2,850,000 1-4 PM Raveis
11 Meyer Place Riverside $2,888,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Banker
50 Lockwood Avenue Old Greenwich $3,495,000 11-1 PM Raveis
1 Reynwood Manor Greenwich $3,599,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Banker
22 Stillman Lane Greenwich $4,995,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Banker
20 Langhorne Lane Greenwich $5,995,000 1:30-3:30 PM Raveis
21 Midwood Drive Greenwich $10,850,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Banker

Open House Map.121414

Greenwich Real Estate Sales for November 2014 – Buyer & Seller Recommendations

SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATION

Our market over $3 million has had the best year since the recession. Sales are improving, particularly in the 4th quarter. Sales have fallen under $1 million due to inventory shortages and sales over $3 million are up so the average price is up. The result is a deceptive increase in the average and median price house price in Greenwich.

When you compare the sales to assessment ratios year over year, we have a 7.1% increase in house prices. Old Greenwich, Riverside and Central Greenwich continue to be hot markets as does new construction at any price. The increase in building can be seem from the fact that teardowns are up 57% in the last fiscal year as many people want to build a house to their specifications.

Buyers

Under $2 million we don’t have a lot of inventory and much of what we do have is the leftovers from the summer the market. When new inventory does come on you need to be ready to move quickly by being not only being pre-qualified, but also being pre-approved. If you are pre-approved most of the loan process complete and you only need appraisal. Being able to close quickly gives you a major advantage in the market.

From $2 – 5 million we have good inventory and now is a good time to be looking. With quantitative easing ending interests rate will most likely go up in 2015 and prices are appreciating so now is a good time to be looking.

Over $5 million we still have good inventory, but buying sooner rather than later is still a good idea. Each property in this price range is unique. For many buyers at the high end with fixed criteria the inventory often narrows quickly to only a handful of listings. If you are flexible on what you want, you can still get a deal, especially if you can close before year-end.

If you are thinking about building now is the time to buy so that you can do your design and permitting in the winter and be ready to break ground in the spring.

Sellers

Historically, winter listings were few and far between as the thought was that there weren’t any buyers looking in the winter. I don’t think that will be the case this winter. Reduced oil prices are injecting a $100 billion into the U.S. economy. Unemployment is back to normal levels and people are starting to feel good about the economy.

In 2013 we had a very good fourth quarter which continued through January 2014 even with a bad winter. This year seems to be shaping up the same way and be above the average for the last decade.

Another factor for an earlier listing this winter rather than waiting for the spring market in March is that Wall Streeters are now “fully bonused”. They are getting not only a third of this year’s bonus, but also a third from each of the two previous year’s bonuses. These high-end bonus buyers also close earlier in the year meaning they are shopping earlier. Greenwich real estate sales normally peak in June, but over $5 million April is historically the month with the most sales.

One of the other advantages of putting a listing on in the winter is that the people who show up are serious buyers and we should see even more of them this winter. Last year we had a very good December and a good January and there is a good chance that this pattern will repeat itself this year.

Feel free to contact me if you have any questions about the market for your house.

Mark Pruner, 203-969-7900

Greenwich Real Estate Sales for November 2014 – Part 6 – Supply & Demand

This is the sixth of seven posts on the state of the Greenwich real estate market near the end of 2014. To read the entire report click this link: The Greenwich Real Estate Report YTD – Nov. 2014

GREENWICH REAL ESTATE – SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Our median sales price in Greenwich YTD is $1,881,350 while our median list price is $3,495,000. You can see this graphically in the pie charts below with less than half of our inventory under $3,000,000 while nearly three-quarters of our sales are under $3,000,000.

Greenwich Real Estate Inventory Nov 2014 Pie ChartGreenwich Real Estate Nov Sales Pie Chart

 

An interesting thing to do is to proceed around the pie charts from top and compare the size of the inventory and the sales for each pie slice. The under $1 million inventory makes of up only 8% of our inventory, but represents 22% of our sales.

Conversely, the over $5 million inventory is 34% of our inventory, but only 10% of our sales. The thing to note is that while the number of sales may be much smaller at the high end, the total dollar amount is huge. The 123 sales under $1,000,000 total $90 million dollars while the most expensive single property sold for $120 million. Even if you exclude that one extraordinary sale the next 7 houses total $97 million dollars. .

The robust part of the market is the $1.5 to $4 million market where we have plenty of inventory and plenty of sales. This was not the case last year. Sales activity slowed down over $2 million, but this year $2 – 4 million has been looking good.

Greenwich Real Estate Sales for November 2014 – Part 5 – Months of Supply

This is the fifth of seven posts on the state of the Greenwich real estate market near the end of 2014. To read the entire report click this link: The Greenwich Real Estate Report YTD – Nov. 2014

GREENWICH MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND MARKET COMPETITIVENESS BY PRICE RANGE

We get a bunch of new listings in September as part of the fall market. By November inventory drops as the number of sales and listing withdrawals greatly outnumber new listings. The result is the months of supply curve that you see here where we have tight supply all the way up to $3 million. The current sales rate from annualized November sales (white bars) shows the same thing.

Greenwich Real Estate Months of Supply Nov. 2014

Under $2 Million

Everything under $1 million dollars is a sellers market if the property is priced correctly. Even in this very competitve price range, over-priced properties sit on the market. In this post-recession market buyers at all price ranges, and particularly below $1.5 million insist on value. It doesn’t have to be a bargain, but buyers will not pay more than what they perceive market value is no matter how much they love the house. The average sales price to list price percentage has stayed around 93% for the last several years.

We only had 6 sales between $1 and 2 million in November so the annualized months of supply jumped in this category. December should be a better month as we have 33 of our 85 pending contracts in this one price range.

$2 Millon to $5 Million

Sales from $2 to $5 million have been steady and as inventory has dropped this market has tightened significantly as sales have continued at a good pace. In November we had 17 sales in this price range while our inventory dropped by 35 listings as 18 other listings expired or were withdrawn.

From $2 – 3 million we saw a big drop in months of supply as listings declined by 20 due to 10 sales in November and withdrawals. In addition to the 10 sales we have 19 contracts pending. The result is that months of supply dropped to only 7 months of supply a low number for such a pricey range.

We also had drops in months of supply from $3 – 5 million. We were down 1.6 months of supply from $3 – 4 million and 1.3 months from $4 – 5 million, but we still have an inventory of 106 listings from $3 – 5 million, so there are still plenty of choices.

Over $5 Million

The over $10 million price range has been active since September 2013, with very high end buyers looking and buying. Over $5 million dollars is still a buyer’s market, but the momentum for the past 12 months is clearly towards the sellers. Indicative of this is a drop 5 months in months of supply from $5 – 7.5 million and a huge 10 months from $7.5 – 10 million.

The market is even a better than this huge drop in months of supply indicates. The $5 – 10 million price has by far the largest number of private sales in Greenwich. In the $5 -10 M price range 10 houses sold outside the GMLS while 39 have been sold through the GMLS. There is no good way to calculate months of supply for these private sales, since you can’t know how many houses are offered privately. Bottom line this segment is improving quickly and the raw numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Greenwich Real Estate Sales for November 2014 – Part 4 – Sales, Inventory & Months of Supply Statistics

This is the fourth of seven posts on the state of the Greenwich real estate market near the end of 2014. To read the entire report click this link: The Greenwich Real Estate Report YTD – Nov. 2014

INVENTORY & SALES STATISTICS FOR GREENWICH – November 2014

Nov. 2014 Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 8 3 3 6 24 27 3.7 3.7 2.7
$600-$800K 11 4 4 8 51 55 2.4 2.5 2.8
$800K-$1M 16 8 3 11 48 56 3.7 3.6 5.3
$1-$1.5M 50 21 4 25 91 112 6.0 5.6 12.5
$1.5-$2M 42 12 2 14 77 89 6.0 5.9 21.0
$2-$3M 69 19 10 29 109 128 7.0 6.7 6.9
$3-$4M 60 6 5 11 64 70 10.3 10.7 12.0
$4-$5M 46 3 2 5 30 33 16.9 17.4 23.0
$5-7.5M 79 6 7 13 31 37 28.0 26.7 11.3
$7.5-$10M 24 3 1 4 8 11 33.0 27.3 24.0
> $10M 53 0 0 0 14 14 41.6 47.3 -
TOTAL 458 85 41 126 547 632 9.2 9.1 11.2

As of Friday, 12/5/14, we had only 458 single family homes on the market in Greenwich down 60 listings in only one month. The majority of this drop was between $1.5 and $4 million where inventory is down 39 units.

Overall sales for the 2014 are up from 2012, but down about 5% from 2013, which was a stellar year for sales. All of this drop is due to lower sales under $1 million. If we had more inventory in this price range we would have more sales.

While overall sales are down slightly, all of the price ranges above $3 million are up a lot. Over $10 million sales are up from last year with 14 sales compared to 6 sales last year at this time. The increase in over $10 million sales started in September last year and still continues. Greenwich is looking like a good alternative to many New Yorkers in this price range. In total above $3 million we have already sold 6% more houses than we did all of last year.

When you add up the value of all the homes sold so far this year on the GMLS you have total volume of $ 1,444,968,796 and there are another 83 Greenwich houses that have been sold outside the GMLS that are not included in this figure. Given that overall sales are down 5%, this again shows the impact that the increase in high-end sales have had on the market.