Greenwich Real Estate Sales for July 2015 – Slow Sales, Good Contract Numbers

JULY 2015 GREENWICH MARKET REPORT 

Contracts were down at the end of June so July was not likely to be a stellar month and it wasn’t. We only had 71 sales reported by the GMLS last month. We’ll get a few late sales reported and seven to 10 private sales, but even if we get to 84 sales we will still be below the 98 sales in July 2013 and the 95 sales in July 2014. We will get to our 9 year average of 73 sales and June was a stellar month. With a little time shifting between months we have two above average months.

Greenwich, CT Home Sales 2013 - July 2015 and 9 year average

Greenwich Home Sales 2013 – July 2015 and 9 year average

The good thing is we still have 103 contracts waiting to close. So August should look better than July.

So the raw number looks like this:

As of 8/1/15 Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds  YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 9 2 0 2 12 14 5.3 5.5 ######
$600-$800K 19 7 6 13 20 27 6.7 6.0 3.2
$800K-$1M 24 15 1 16 20 35 8.4 5.8 24.0
$1-$1.5M 40 9 18 27 82 91 3.4 3.7 2.2
$1.5-$2M 68 21 16 37 73 94 6.5 6.1 4.3
$2-$3M 114 19 13 32 68 87 11.7 11.1 8.8
$3-$4M 85 14 8 22 40 54 14.9 13.4 10.6
$4-$5M 47 5 3 8 20 25 16.5 16.0 15.7
$5-7.5M 81 7 5 12 26 33 21.8 20.9 16.2
$7.5-$10M 28 2 1 3 4 6 49.0 39.7 28.0
> $10M 54 2 0 2 3 5 126.0 91.8 ######
TOTAL 569 103 71 174 368 471 10.8 10.3 8.0
                   
Inventory Sales Inv. – Sales Diff
Count 569                          368 201
Total Sales $  $      905,283,029
 Average  $           4,805,284  $           2,460,008  $    2,345,275
 Median  $           3,195,000  $           1,875,000  $    1,320,000
List Price Sold Price  Inv. – Sales Diff

Inventory and Sales

Our inventory is slipping a little which is typical of this time of year, but in the price categories over $1.5M we have good supply.  What has been our super-hot category may go to just hot in August as we have more contracts from $1.5 – 2.0M than from $1.0 – $1.5M. We also have a nice number of contracts from $2 – 4M. So we will see the average sales price rise as more sales happen above our average sale price of $2.46M. Our median sales price is $1.875 which is a nice increase from last year.

Greenwich Real Estate July 2015 Months of Supply by Price Range

Greenwich Real Estate July 2015 Months of Supply by Price Range

Even though sales dropped back to our 9 year average in July from stellar 2013 and 2014 July the sales distribution and demand stayed the same in most price categories. The main exceptions were the $7.5 – 10M and the $600K – 800K price range where July sales were 1 sale and 6 sales. Now the fact that one sale can get the annualized months of supply for July sales to drop 21 months shows just how slow this segment has been.

 

July2015.InvSoldsKs.080815

 

The median house in Greenwich has 3,266 s.f., 4 BR, 3/1 BA on .44 acres. It sales for around $1.87M or $574/s.f.. It takes about 3 – 1/2 months to sell and goes for 94% of its original list price. It has appreciated nearly 20% from the last tax assessment in 2010 or about 4% a year.

As of 7/31/15 Sold Price/SqFt SP/ASMT SP/OLP List Price/SqFt DOM SqFt +/- # Bdrms # FBths # HBths Assessment Acres +/-
Average  $  597 1.73 92.6%  $              622 177 3896 4.49 3.50 0.95  $ 1,432,280 1.08
Median  $  574 1.70 94.0%  $              597 113 3266 4.00 3.00 1.00  $ 1,088,710 0.44

June 2015 is Outstanding – 2nd Q is active – $1 – 1.5M Amazing

GREENWICH REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT

FIRST HALF 2015

by

Mark Pruner

Douglas Elliman – Greenwich

203-969-7900 – mark.pruner@elliman.com

 

  • June sales are stellar
  • Inventory continues to be good in most price ranges
  • $1 – 1.5 million market is combat buying
  • Market over $7.5 million is major buying opportunity

 

June Sales Would be Record Setting if not for Our Legislator

We had an amazing 110 sales in Greenwich for June 2015 an increase of 22 sales over June 2014. This would be a record except for the 114 sales that we had in 2011 when the Connecticut Legislature raised the conveyance tax effective 7/1/11 resulting a June boom and a July 2011 bust.

Inventory is also good at 592 single family homes on the market which is 21 more than we had in 2014 at this time. We still could use a lot more inventory under $1.5 million where buyers have limited choices particularly on the east side of town.

Inventory from $1 – 1.5 million is up 15 houses from last year but contracts and sales are up 20 houses from last year so we are getting houses coming on, but they are going off equally as fast in this hot market segment.

 

As of 6/30/15 per GMLS Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 4 1 0 1 12 13 2.0 2.3 #DIV/0!
$600-$800K 19 8 6 14 14 22 8.1 6.5 3.2
$800K-$1M 29 5 7 12 19 24 9.2 9.1 4.1
$1-$1.5M 41 17 23 40 64 81 3.8 3.8 1.8
$1.5-$2M 74 26 21 47 57 83 7.8 6.7 3.5
$2-$3M 117 19 16 35 55 74 12.8 11.9 7.3
$3-$4M 99 12 15 27 32 44 18.6 16.9 6.6
$4-$5M 50 7 8 15 17 24 17.6 15.6 6.3
$5-7.5M 80 11 7 18 20 31 24.0 19.4 11.4
$7.5-$10M 24 1 0 1 3 4 48.0 45.0 #DIV/0!
> $10M 55 1 0 1 3 4 110.0 103.1 #DIV/0!
TOTAL 592 108 103 211 296 404 12.0 11.0 5.7

 

Our over $7.5 million market has plenty of inventory with 79 gorgeous houses available. The disappointing factor is that only 8 houses are under contract or have been reported sold on the GMLS. This present a major buying opportunity as prices in the ultra-high end in New York City are drastically higher on a price per square foot basis.

 

Wide Variations in Supply & Demand Among Price Ranges

So inventory is good and sales are up, but that is the 20,000 foot view. When you get down in the weeds and look at particular price ranges and neighborhoods the story can be quite different. For example from $7.5 – 10 million our inventory is down 12 units from 36 listings to 24 listing; a drop of one-third indicating a tightening market. Sales however have been down slightly and contracts up slightly showing a neutral market, but overall this price range stays as a strongly pro-buyer market.

June ’14 vs June 15 Inventory Contracts Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Mo. Annlzd
< $600K -4 -4 -3 -7 0 -4 -2.00 -1.22 #DIV/0!
$600-$800K 6 -6 0 -6 -9 -15 4.75 3.84 1.00
$800K-$1M 4 -7 0 -7 1 -6 0.82 2.81 0.57
$1-$1.5M -10 -11 7 -4 17 6 -2.67 -1.30 -1.40
$1.5-$2M 15 5 15 20 21 26 -2.04 -1.08 -6.31
$2-$3M 10 -5 -4 -9 2 -3 0.65 1.44 1.96
$3-$4M 16 -7 5 -2 -9 -16 6.42 6.50 -1.70
$4-$5M -2 3 2 5 1 4 -1.85 -3.88 -2.42
$5-7.5M -2 1 2 3 5 6 -8.80 -5.25 -4.97
$7.5-$10M -12 1 -1 0 -2 -1 4.80 -9.00 #DIV/0!
> $10M 0 -4 -1 -5 -6 -10 73.33 73.66 #DIV/0!
TOTAL 21 -34 22 -12 21 -13 -0.46 0.72 -1.30
Pro-Seller Pro-Buyer

 

The driving force in our market continues to be the segment from $1 – 2 million which is up 38 sales over last year. (We also have nice bump up in sales and contracts from $4 – 7.5M up 10 houses over last year. The chart above shows numbers with a green background that are pro-seller; such as lower inventory, higher sales and contracts, and lower months of supply. The pro-buyer segments are the opposite and are shown with a red background.

From $600,000 to $4 million our inventory is up 41 houses, which shows a willingness of sellers to put their house on the market, which wasn’t the case earlier this year as the harsh winter kept inventory off the market. Our 2015 spring market started late again.

As to what’s coming up, July 2015 is likely to return to the traditional pattern of being slightly down from June, even though 2013 and 2014 July sales tied or exceeded June sales. The reason is the number of outstanding contracts is down 34 houses from 2014. All in all though 2015 is shaping up to be a good year in line with 2013 and 2014 and maybe even a little better, it’s looking more and more like the new normal or around 700 sales though each year seems to have a different mix of hot price segments.

 

Months of Supply Shows Sweet Spot and Resistance Levels

We have 3.8 months of supply from $1 – 1.5 million which is astounding. We have a hotter market there than we have from $600,000 to $1,000,000, not that these markets aren’t plenty busy. This competitive buying continues all the way up to $2,000,000 which is still better than the $600K – $1M market. In this price range many of the buyers are young families that buying before the rates go up even higher. The other big factor in this market is pent-up demand being released as downsizers particularly from Westchester, jump into the market in this price range.

FirstHalf2015.MoS.071915

 

Another sweet spot for sellers is not quite so obvious. Our months of supply from $4 – 7.5 is improved over last year as contracts are up as well as sales. We should see a smooth curve of increasing months of supply from our lowest price range to our highest, but the buyers are out there in the $4 – 7.5M price range. Once you hit $7.5 million, however, buyer demand has stayed light.

The good thing about the high-end price range is that we are looking like a bargain to NYC buyers. Our price per square foot is often a fraction of what some condo buyers and investors are paying in New York City. We are seeing more Asian investment groups and Silicon Valley types expanding their businesses in the area. For both these groups Greenwich’s upper end is looking like a good place to invest.

Sales, Inventory & Contracts

Another way to judge a hot market at mid-year is whether sales for the first six month exceed inventory. Sales clearly have exceeded our present inventory from $1 – $1.5M and also for our under $600K market. Under $600K is a shrinking market in Greenwich as most of our single family homes have appreciated beyond the $600K price range. The result has been an increase in sales of condos as reported in a recent Bloomberg article (where I got quoted :).

FirstHalf2015.InvSoldsKs.071915

              June Sales are Up Substantially

June sales of 110 GMLS and private single family home sales in Greenwich were way up over our 9 year average of 85 sales. The really impressive thing is that just the GMLS sales this year exceeded GMLS and private sales for 2014 and 2013. The total of 110 sales falls just short of the June sales of 114 set in 2011. That month is an anomaly, because the conveyance tax was set to increase on July 1, 2011, which shifted sales into June. That sales spurt in June 2011 was followed by a bust in July 2014. This increase isn’t like that it is a real market driven increase.

 

Percentages & Pie Charts

You can see just how busy the $1 -1.5M market is when you compare the size of the purple pie section for inventory (7%) to the purple section for YTD solds (22%). The blue pie sections show how the next price range up, $1.5 – $2M, has been busy too with an inventory of 12% while sales are 19%, i.e. sale are 50% more than inventory. This section will get even larger as 24% of our contracts are in the $1.5 to 2.0M range.

 

June2015.YTDSalesPie.071915Greenwich Real Estate Inventory June 2015
 June2015.JuneSalesPie.071915   June2015.ContractsPie.071915



Where the Sales Are

Old Greenwich, Riverside and Cos Cob are doing well. Mid-country is moving along and builder activity is strong. Back country particularly those sections not near a Merritt Parkway entrance or I-684 are slower and present some real buying opportunities particularly for downsizers where commuting times are not as important.

FirstHalf.GMLSSales.071915

Single Family Home Sales in Greenwich, CT for the First Half of 2015

 

 

GREENWICH REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT – MAY 2015

GREENWICH REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT

MAY 2015 (PRELIMINARY)

by

Mark Pruner

Douglas Elliman – Greenwich

203-969-7900 – mark.pruner@elliman.com

  • $1 – $2M where the deals are – 1/3 of all contracts
  • $2 – $4M busy, but with good inventory levels
  • $5 – $7M sees contracts and sales rise nicely
  • Houses much more in demand than condos

 

May 2015 Continues Mixed Market, but Upper Half of Market Now Improving

As of 5/30/15 Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 3 0 2 2 12 12 1.3 1.6 1.5
$600-$800K 15 10 2 12 8 18 9.4 5.4 7.5
$800K-$1M 25 12 3 15 11 23 11.4 7.1 8.3
$1-$1.5M 45 29 15 44 41 70 5.5 4.2 3.0
$1.5-$2M 69 36 8 44 36 72 9.6 6.2 8.6
$2-$3M 116 20 9 29 38 58 15.3 13.0 12.9
$3-$4M 92 21 3 24 15 36 30.7 16.6 30.7
$4-$5M 51 13 3 16 9 22 28.3 15.1 17.0
$5-7M 75 10 7 17 12 22 31.3 22.2 10.7
$7-$10M 32 3 2 5 4 7 40.0 29.7 16.0
> $10M 51 0 1 1 3 3 85.0 110.5 51.0
TOTAL 574 154 55 209 189 343 15.2 10.9 10.4

 

Statistics

May 2015 List Price Sold Price Sold Price /SqFt SP/OLP List Price /SqFt DOM SqFt Acres Taxes
Average  $  4,632,010  $  2,525,665  $ 581 90.5%  $ 613 205 3907 1.21  $   16,457
Median  $  3,197,250  $  1,825,000  $ 532 92.0%  $ 572 168 3226 0.48  $   12,478

 

May is Good Sales Month $1 – $1.5 and $4 – $10M

1

 

 Good Inventory Over $1.5M, Busy Sales and Contracts from $1 – $3M

2

 

Percentages & Pie Charts

3

 

Summary

May statistics showing the market accelerating as inventory is up, but so are contracts. The additional contracts between $5 and 10 million are particularly significant as this was a slow market in the first quarter. The one worrisome area continues to be over $10M where we have 51 listings and only a handful of sales and contracts. Our higher end market is becoming a real bargain compared to Manhattan where prices are looking frothy.

The market from $1 to $2 million is particularly strong as we are seeing not only young families moving from Manhattan to Greenwich, but also significant demand from downsizers from Westchester. Both groups are competing for the same houses. In addition this price range is a sweet spot for builders that are looking to spend $1 – 2 million for the land, build new and sell for $3 – $6 million.

Mid-May 2015 update

Mid-May 2015 update

Inventory continues to do well with 566 single family homes on the market. The lower you go the less choice you have. Under $600K we only have 3 listings and only 11 listings from $600 – $800K. We’ve sold 38 houses so far this month 2 of which were under $600K and 1 between $600 and $800K. This gives us a total of 175 houses sold through the GMLS and another 156 houses under contract.

Things are still very busy, but not quite as cutthroat when you get to $800K to $1M where we have 22 houses in inventory and 3 sold so far this month, but 11 houses under contract so you still have to be prepared to move quickly.

We have more houses listed over $20M (8 listings) than we have under $600K (the aforementioned 3 listings). Our median list price is $3.3M while our median sales price in May so far has been $1.65M.

 

GREENWICH REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT – APRIL 2015

GREENWICH REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT

APRIL 2015

by

Mark Pruner

Douglas Elliman – Greenwich

203-969-7900 – mark.pruner@elliman.com

  • Warm weather drive sales under $2M
  • Inventory finally rises to normal levels
  • Combat buying between $1 – 2M
  • Contracts pick up in $5 – 10M

 

April 2015 Shows Rebound from Hard Winter

Sales through the GMLS were up by 7 units from April 2014 and our contracts are up 10% from last April. We have 14 houses in contract between $5 and $10 million our best so far this year.

Warm weather in April also finally brought out the sellers with new listings. We were back to a normal amount of inventory by the end of the April when we had 521 single family homes on the market. New inventory is also coming on at a nice clip. Overall the market is looking promising for most price ranges and most areas of town.

Inventory 5/2/15 Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 3 2 2 4 9 11 1.3 1.5 1.5
$600-$800K 12 7 3 10 5 12 9.6 5.5 4.0
$800K-$1M 20 12 2 14 8 20 10.0 5.5 10.0
$1-$1.5M 40 27 4 31 25 52 6.4 4.2 10.0
$1.5-$2M 60 31 11 42 28 59 8.6 5.6 5.5
$2-$3M 91 24 10 34 29 53 12.6 9.4 9.1
$3-$4M 84 14 6 20 12 26 28.0 17.8 14.0
$4-$5M 57 8 3 11 6 14 38.0 22.4 19.0
$5-7.5M 83 9 2 11 8 17 41.5 26.9 41.5
$7.5-$10M 20 5 0 5 2 7 40.0 15.7
> $10M 51 0 0 0 2 2 102.0 140.3
TOTAL 521 139 43 182 134 273 15.6 10.5 12.1

 

We have 139 contracts outstanding so you would expect to see months of supply drop further in May as we have more houses go to contract and more closings happening. If we do see a drop in months of supply it will probably be small and might even be an increase as we see more delayed inventory coming online. Our over $10M market continues to be worrisome as we had no contracts and no sales in April reported by the GMLS. We did have one private sale for $19.9M and a land sale for $13M, but we have 51 houses in inventory over $10M

 

Overall Market More Active in April 2015 – Dividing Line is at $2 – 3 Million

The table below compares April 2015 to April 2014. For example in the top left corner our inventory under $600K is down 9 houses from our April 2014 inventory and has a red background. Those changes that are pro-seller; lower inventory, more sales are in red. The changes from April 2014 that are pro-buyer such as more inventory and fewer contracts are in blue.

4/15 vs. 4/14 Inventory Contracts Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Mo. Annlzd
< $600K -9 -2 0 -2 3 1 -6.39 -4.93 -4.50
$600-$800K -7 -4 -1 -5 -7 -11 3.49 1.07 -0.75
$800K-$1M -6 4 -1 3 0 4 -2.55 -3.21 1.33
$1-$1.5M -13 1 0 1 6 7 -4.37 -2.08 -3.25
$1.5-$2M 3 15 7 22 14 29 -7.1 -4.6 -8.80
$2-$3M -5 1 5 6 -1 0 0.20 -0.27 -10.10
$3-$4M 11 -3 0 -3 -8 -11 13.91 7.19 1.83
$4-$5M 20 -1 0 -1 -5 -6 25.02 12.48 6.67
$5-7.5M 8 6 2 8 3 9 16.40 -23.40 41.50
$7.5-$10M -8 3 -2 1 0 3 -14.04 -21.81 -14.00
> $10M 15 -6 -3 -9 -4 -10 78.84 124.17 -12.00
TOTAL 9 14 7 21 1 15 0.69 -0.14 -2.11
pro-buyer pro-seller

 

As you can see price ranges below $2 million have lots of red; inventory is down, sales are up and months of supply is down. It is a seller’s market below $2 million and particularly from $1 – 2 million. I’ve had two properties in this price range and in both cases we had an accepted offer in less than five days with back-up offers. For anyone in this price range (I’d be glad to send them my article on how to win in competitive bidding situations.)

Over $3 million the situation is pro-buyer. We have more inventory than last year and YTD solds are down. Part of the upper end is looking better as we have 9 more contracts between $5 and $10 million. These contracts results in big drops in our months of supply.

We’ve been waiting for this improvement all year. That price range is better, but we still have a ways to go. Even if you add in the contracts we have over a year’s supply between $7.5 and $10M and over two year’s supply between $5 and $7.5 million.

 

Months of Supply Shows Tight Market to $2M, Improving from $3 – 10M

11

If you look at the months of supply sales and contract bars (red bars) you can see that they are below the blue bars (only sales) in every price category indicating an improving market. Normally you don’t see this pattern until May and June as the rate of sales and contracts exceed the rate of new inventory coming on, but not this year. We are getting the inventory coming on, but we are also getting the contracts.

The white bars which are the April sales annualized show that April was a good month for sales from $1.5M to $5M. Above $5M we had contracts but the sales hadn’t started up yet. Over $10M months of supply is literally off the chart.

Good Inventory and Better Sales from $1 – $2 Million

To see just how competitive the $1 – $2 million market is stack the red bar (contracts) on top of the light blue bar (sales) and compare their combined height to the dark blue bar, inventory. If you do the same thing over $3 million you can see that we have a higher percentage of inventory and fewer sales and contracts. The nice thing is that the red bars (contracts) in these price ranges are all taller than the light blue bars (YTD sales) showing that this segment is improving.

 

22

Percentages & Pie Charts

Another way to look at the market is the size of the pie pieces. In 2015 they look much different than in prior years. If you look at the YTD Solds pie you can see how big the $1 – $3 million market is compared to the inventory. You can also see from the contract pie that it will continue strong.8884

Summary

April statistics is showing an accelerating market as inventory is up, but so are contracts. The additional contracts between $5 and 10 million are particularly significant as this has been a slow market. The one worrisome area is sales over $10M where we have had only 2 sales so far this year of GMLS listed properties and 3 private sales.

The market from $1 to $2 million is particularly strong as we are seeing not only young families moving from Manhattan to Greenwich, but also significant demand from downsizers from Westchester. Both groups are competing for the same houses. In addition this price range is a sweet spot for builders that are looking to spend $1 – 2 million for the land, build new and sell for $3 – $6 million.

After a weak beginning it looks like the market is coming back strongly.

 

 

 

March Slow Sales – Good Contracts

 

  • March sales come in like a lamb
  • Low inventory hurts sales from $1 – 3M; still our top sellers
  • No market under $600K – 3 houses in inventory
  • Wall Street bonus recipients buying from $3 – 10M

 

March a Decent Month for Contracts – Not So Good for Sales

This year has continued the tradition of the last several years with good months followed by a not so good month. February was a great month for sales and March was not. Last month, 41 houses sold in Greenwich. This month, we are down to 31 houses sales as reported by the GMLS. We’ll pick up a few more private sales, but I’ll be very surprised if get to our 9 year average of 42 sales in March.

 

As of 4/5/15 Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 3 5 2 7 7 12 1.3 1.1 1.5
$600-$800K 11 3 0 3 2 5 16.5 9.9
$800K-$1M 19 9 4 13 6 15 9.5 5.7 4.8
$1-$1.5M 37 14 6 20 21 35 5.3 4.8 6.2
$1.5-$2M 42 28 5 33 17 45 7.4 4.2 8.4
$2-$3M 82 19 6 25 19 38 12.9 9.7 13.7
$3-$4M 75 11 2 13 5 16 45.0 21.1 37.5
$4-$5M 51 8 2 10 3 11 51.0 20.9 25.5
$5-7.5M 74 10 4 14 6 16 37.0 20.8 18.5
$7.5-$10M 24 2 0 2 2 4 36.0 27.0
> $10M 43 0 0 0 2 2 64.5 96.8
TOTAL 461 109 31 140 90 199 15.4 10.4 14.9

 

The quarter over all was affected by the harsh winter with limited listings under $1 million and limited sales. Over $3 million contracts are looking up from $3 – $7.5M and we have a good inventory. The winter house effect continues over $7.5 million as folks are going to to their ski house or Caribbean house waiting for better weather. (I am seeing more showings over $7.5M now that the snow has disappeared.)

 

Inventory continues low under $3 million while increasing over $3 million vs. 2014

Our inventory continues to be low with only 461 total houses on the market in all of Greenwich. Under $3 million, we are down 41 listings over this time last year to only 109 listings. (Under $600K we only have 3 house listings.) This shortage of inventory in our most active markets is disguised by the increase of listings in 2015 from $3 – $5 million where we are up 32 listings over 2014.

 

3/15 vs. 3/14 Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K -9 2 0 2 3 5 -7.7 -6.6 -4.5
$600-$800K -6 -5 -4 -9 -6 -11 10.1 5.1
$800K-$1M 1 1 3 4 1 2 -1.3 -0.5 -13.3
$1-$1.5M -7 -2 0 -2 6 4 -3.5 -1.6 -1.2
$1.5-$2M -14 12 3 15 7 19 -9.4 -5.5 -19.6
$2-$3M -6 8 0 8 -6 2 2.4 -1.3 -1.0
$3-$4M 13 -7 -3 -10 -9 -16 31.7 12.4 25.1
$4-$5M 19 1 1 2 -5 -4 39.0 11.3 -6.5
$5-7.5M 3 7 3 10 1 8 -5.6 -19.1 -52.5
$7.5-$10M -2 -2 0 -2 2 0 -2.3
> $10M -1 -4 0 -4 -1 -5 20.5 68.5
TOTAL -9 11 3 14 -7 4 0.8 -0.4 -1.9

 

Our mid-market from $1 to $3M continues to be the hot part of the market. Of our 90 sales so far this year 57 are between $1 and $3 million. We also have 20 contracts between $1.5 million and $3 million so this price category will have good sales this month also.

(If you are looking between $1.5 – $2M, let me know. I just put 21 Sawmill Lane on for $1.89M which is actually below its 2013 appraisal. The client would like a quick sale and given the good price and active market it may not be on long. Update: It took 3 days to get an accepted offer.)

When you look at the rest of the market we are down 9 contracts. One noticeable bright spot is the $5 – 7.5M price range where we are up 7 contracts over last year.

 

Harsh Winter Shown by Months of Supply Chart

If you look at the months of supply sales curve (blue bars) you can see what a harsh winter we have had in the first quarter. The month of supply sales bars are all over the place as a few sales either way in each price category resulted in significant moves up and down.

March2015.MoS

 

If you add in the contracts (red bars) you can see that you have a much smoother curve from the low end to the high end. (The one major exception is the $600K to $800K where we only have 11 listings and two sales so far this years, but we have 3 properties under contract in this price range.) You can see the effect of the harsh winter if you look at the $3 – $10M price range. If you compare the height of the sales bar (blue bars) to the height of sales and contracts bar (red bar) you can see how much the contracts in this price range will be improving as a result of post-snow contracts.

 

Sales Slower Under $1 Million – Little Inventory, Even Less New Inventory

To see just how competitive the $1 – $2 million market is stack the red bar (contracts) on top of the light blue bar (sales) and compare their combined height to the dark blue bar inventory. You can see just how competitive this part of the market is. If you do the same thing over $3 million you can see that we have a higher percentage of inventory and fewer sales and contracts. The nice thing is that the red bars in these price ranges are all taller than the light blue bars showing that this segment is improving.

March.2015.Sales.Inv.Cur.Ks.040815

 

              March Sales Down Compared to Average

The cumulative effects of bad weather in January, February and the early part of March drove sales down in March 2015. The last two years, March sales have lagged compared to the average only to see a recovery above average in April. The odds are that this pattern will repeat itself in 2015. We have more contracts than last year and the threat of rising interest rates later this year seem to be motivating folks particularly in our middle market.

2013-Mar2015Prelim.Avg.SalessbyMo.011914

Percentages & Pie Charts

Another way to look at the market is the size of the pie pieces. In 2015 they look much different than in prior years. If you look at the YTD Solds pie you can see how big the $1 – $3 million market is compared to the inventory. You can also see from the contract pie that it will continue strong. The contract pie chart also shows that the $3 – 10 million market will also be getting better.

March2015..Inventory.040515

 March2015..SalesYTD.040515

Summary

The first quarter shows a very strong mid-market and signs of an improving market over $3 million. The one worrisome area is sales over $10M where we have had only 2 sales so far this year of GMLS listed properties and 2 private sales. The lower end of the market just needs more inventory and sales will do well.

Mid-country should stay strong this year and backcountry’s recovery should accelerate. Old Greenwich and Riverside, and particularly SoTra (south of the tracks) will command an even greater premium price. This means that Cos Cob and Glenville will also continue to appreciate as the best combination of square footage, acreage, schools and price for many families priced out of or not willing to pay the SoTra premium.

Builders are going to be much more active both for teardowns and custom built houses and for spec houses. In fact, with financing for spec houses finally coming back, the builders could see major growth this year.