Greenwich Real Estate – What’s Changed from 2012 to Today

How the market has changed – A comparison of First Half of 2012 to First Half of 2013

The market in Greenwich has gotten better overall. Inventory is down and sales for the first half of the year are up 56 houses to 298 houses sold.  When you add in contracts things are looking even better with an increase of 91 over first half 2012. Months of supply is also down 3.1 months to 11.4 months. The hot market is under $2 million and particularly under $1 million. In fact we could sell more houses if we had more inventory under $1 million.

Inventory in every price range is down except for $3 – 4 million and $5 – 10 million.  In the $3 – 4 million price range we have 16 more houses on the market than we did last year at this time, while sales in the $3 -4  price range are down by two house from last year. This explains why months of supply are up almost 8 months to 31 months or 2.6 years of supply.

For the range from $3 – 7.5 million sales are about the same as last year and over $7.5 million sales are noticeably slower this year. The nice thing is when you look at the contracts and offers the high end will be getting better and sales in July 2013 have borne this out.

  June ’13 Jun ’13 vs.   Jun ’13 vs. Jun ’13 vs. Jun ’13 vs. Jun ’13 vs.
June ’13 Inventory Jun ’12 YTD Solds Jun ’12 YTD+Ks Jun ’12 Mos Supply Jun ’12 Mos w/ Ks Jun ’12
< $600K

13

-12

21

-6

30

-4

3.7

-1.8

3.3

-2.3

$600-$800K

22

-12

27

-4

39

-10

4.9

-1.7

4.2

-2.4

$800K-$1M

21

-3

28

5

37

5

4.5

-1.8

4.3

-2.9

$1-$1.5M

54

-3

62

28

94

40

5.2

-4.8

4.3

-5.7

$1.5-$2M

61

-7

54

15

85

22

6.8

-3.7

5.4

-4.9

$2-$3M

97

-5

58

20

94

33

10.0

-6.1

7.7

-8.1

$3-$4M

93

16

18

-2

37

7

31.0

7.9

18.9

-5.5

$4-$5M

50

-2

12

3

17

2

25.0

-9.7

22.1

-10.9

$5-$10M

111

12

17

2

22

0

39.2

-0.4

66.6

23.9

> $10M

42

-5

1

-5

5

-4

252.0

205.0

63.0

13.4

                     
TOTAL

564

-21

298

56

460

91

11.4

-3.1

9.2

-5.9

A note on the tables – The first column of each group is 2013 data and the second column is the change from 2012.

A comparison of Greenwich, CT real estate sale in June 2012 and June 2013

June is normally the month with the highest sales for the year. As such it has enough sales to give you a feel of how the overall market is doing, something that can’t be said of sales in February, traditionally the slowest month for sales.  As mentioned sales under $1 million would be better if we had more inventory and you can see this when you compare June 2012 to June 2013. As of the beginning of July 2013 we have only 56 listings under $1 million down from 83 last year. Despite a major upsurge in demand from buyers in this price range sales are actually down 7 homes this June from last June as there is not enough good inventory on the market under $1MM.

  June ’13 Jun ’13 vs. June ’13 Jun ’13 vs. June ’13 Jun ’13 vs. June ’13 Jun ’13 vs.
June ’13 Inventory Jun ’12 Contracts Jun ’12 Solds Jun ’12 Tot. Solds+Ks Jun ’12
< $600K

13

-12

9

2

5

-2

14

0

$600-$800K

22

-12

12

-6

4

-7

16

-13

$800K-$1M

21

-3

9

0

10

2

19

2

$1-$1.5M

54

-3

32

12

19

8

51

20

$1.5-$2M

61

-7

31

7

17

8

48

15

$2-$3M

97

-5

36

13

22

12

58

25

$3-$4M

93

16

19

9

3

-4

22

5

$4-$5M

50

-2

5

-1

1

-3

6

-4

$5-$10M

111

12

5

-2

5

2

10

0

> $10M

42

-5

4

1

1

-1

5

0

                 
TOTAL

564

-21

162

35

87

15

249

50

Our Goldilocks zone is from $1 – 3 million where supply has been enough for increased demand. When you look at this price range we are up a total of 63 sales and contracts in June 2013 compared to June 2012. Above $3 million inventory is up 21 and nearly all are really beautiful houses, despite this sales are down 2 house. Over $3 million we have 296 really great houses for sale up 21 houses from last year. Over $4 million contracts and sales are actually down slightly from last year.

 

  2013 Sales Compared to 2012, 2011 and 6 year average

When you look at sales for the last three years and the six year average 2013 is looking good overall. For much of the town that’s true; Glenville for example has become super competitive and mid-country is coming back nicely.

Sales.SFH.2010-June2013.mp

Greenwich Real Estate Prices – Up, Down & Sideways

 

So I reviewed this with a client and he wanted to know what prices were doing in Greenwich.  I told him and he didn’t like the answer, because it’s complicated. Old Greenwich is a great example of these complications. Inventory is tight in OG, sales are up and many houses go to multiple bids. Despite this the average sales price is down. The problem is that the very highest priced Old Greenwich houses with Long Island Sound views are slow to sell. Many OG houses are probably up 10% or even more over last year. Until all price ranges start to move in the same directions looking at average price alone doesn’t give you much of a feeling of how the market is doing. For that you really need a Realtor. 🙂

Complete Greenwich, CT Open House List for Sunday 7/28/13

 

Open House Map.072813

 

Greenwich Open Houses July 28th

 

 

Below are all of the Greenwich Open Houses for Sunday.  Thank you to Rob Pulitano for preparing the list and the interactive map of all the open houses and to Jared Randall for doing the hot links for each listing.

 

 

Address Town List Price Time Broker
21 Greenwich Hills #21 Greenwich $619K 2-4 PM Raveis
102 River West #102 Greenwich $650K 1-4 PM Prudential
16 Arnold Drive Stamford $747K 2-4 PM Prudential
10 Fairfield Avenue #A Old Greeenwich $749K 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
38 Wescott Street Riverside $795K 2-4:30 PM Raveis
32 Cliff Avenue #3 Greenwich $819K 1-3 PM FF Realty
205 Valley Road Cos Cob $995K 12-2 PM Shore & Cntry Prop
82 Northfield Street #A Greenwich $998K 1-4 PM Prudential
11 Steep Hollow Lane Cos Cob $1.395M 1-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
4 Florence Road Riverside $1.395M 2-4 PM Raveis
68 Lockwood Road Riverside $1.695M 1-4 PM Prudential
276 Southfield Avenue Stamford $1.725M 1-4 PM Prudential
164 Dolphin Cove Quay Stamford $2.065M 1-4 PM Prudential
5 Darmouth Road Cos Cob $1.995M 1-3 PM Sotheby’s
15 Palmer Terrace Riverside $2.599M 1-3 PM Raveis
59 Hillside Drive Greenwich $2.695M 2-4 PM Raveis
30 Sherwood Avenue Greenwich $2.85M 1-4 PM Prudential
1076 Lake Avenue Greenwich $3.295M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
5 Keofferam Road Old Greeenwich $3.31M 2-4 PM Shore & Cntry Prop
516 Round Hill Road Greenwich $7.975M 1-3 PM Prudential

 

 

 

GreenwichStreets.com – July 2013 Mid-Month Report

Sales in the First Half of July

  • 53 Sales in First 19 Days of July
  • Concentrated in Old Greenwich & Riverside
  • Under $1 million continues supply constrained sales
  • Sales expanding in Mid-country and expanding to Backcountry

The first half of July has been a busy time for sales. The extraordinary number of contracts we had earlier in the year are maturing into sales and July 2013 is on track to be above our six year average of 67 sales and potentially above July 2012 eighty sales.  The under $1 million market continues to be combat buying with a constrained inventory and very active buyers. Of the 63 contracts and accepted offers so far in July 2013, eleven of them were under $1 million and eight of the sales were under that price. If we had more inventory we would have more sales.

Map of Greenwich, CT Single Family Home Sales in the First Half of July 2013

Map of Greenwich, CT Single Family Home Sales in the First Half of July 2013

The other place where sales are inventory constrained are Old Greenwich and Riverside. Take a look at the map of sales from the GMLS data and you can see the heavy concentration of red pins in this area. One consequence of short inventory in OG and Riverside is increased sales in mid-country which seems to be almost back to normal, particularly under $3 million. We are even seeing more activity in backcountry and in higher price ranges.

Over $3 Million Doing Better

  • 13 sales in first half of July
  • Upper mid-country is sweet spot
  • 270 average days on market vs. 76 days for rest of market
  • Price range from $5 – 7.5 million has 5 sales and 2 contracts

Of the 53 sales so far this month, 13 of them were over $3 million dollars per the GMLS map above.  This price range is concentrated along the water and in mid- and backcountry Greenwich.  Activity in the mid-country is moving north from the Pecksland/Round Hill Circle/Deer Park area, which also continues active. The notable sale is 27 Oakley which after a series of reductions sold for $200,000 over list. When you hit market price the buyer’s show up even in the upper price ranges.

Greenwich Home Sales Over $3 Million Map

Greenwich Home Sales Over $3 Million Map

Backcountry is doing better too, with five sales so far this month, but only two are over $3 million. The really amazing price range is $5 – 7.5MM where we had 5 sales so far this month and 2 contracts. As companies are paying bonuses later higher end house are happening later in the year. Over $3 million sales take awhile with an average of 9 months on the market versus only 2.5 months for the under $3 million and only a month under $1 million.

Months of Supply First Half of 2013 & YTD Over $7.5 Million (7/19/13)

  • Over $7.5 million very slow
  • Greenwich has 21 year supply of houses over $10 million
  • Good sales up to $3 millon
Greenwich, CT Months of Supply of Houses Priced

Greenwich, CT Months of Supply of Houses Priced

When you look at months of supply the over $10 million dollar range with only one sale and 39 houses on the market dwarfs everything else. We have over a 20 year supply of houses in this price range. Now the good news is we have two contracts waiting to close in that price range. Once they close this number takes a big drops, but we are still talking about years and years of supply at the present time. The next price range down looks good, by comparison, but it isn’t.  Even with the five sales so far in July the 74 listings in this price range represent close to five years of supply.

Price Range Analysis

  • Under $1.5 million quick sales and limited inventory
  • $1.5 – 3 million transition market and improving
  • $3 – 7.5 million slower earlier but getting better
  • Over $7.5 million very tough
Greenwich Real Estate Months of Supply - June & July 2013 (max 36 mos)

Greenwich Real Estate Months of Supply – June & July 2013 (max 36 mos)

When you look at months of supply in the other price ranges you see 2.5 markets. The under $1.5 million market is highly competitive with lots of buyers fighting for 20% of the inventory of single family homes in Greenwich.  July sales in this price bracket are 30% of all sales and would be higher if we had more inventory. As buyers see prices moving up and particularly interest rates moving up many more are getting off the sidelines and are actively looking.

From $3 to 7.5 million the 205 GMLS listings represent a couple of years of supply. The interesting thing is that sales are about the same in this price range as in 2012, but we have more listings on the market driving up months of supply. The half market is the transition zone from the hot under $1.5 million market to the cool over $3 million dollar market.  In the transition zone of $1.5 – $3 million we have 149 listings on the GMLS.  As the year progresses months of supply in this transition area is coming down as we see more buyers at higher price points.

Summary

Overall  the market is continue to improve. In July the under $1.5 million and the Old Greenwich and Riverside markets are staying very  active. The $1.5 – $3 million is looking better in July as is mid-country. The over  $3 million market and backcountry are also seeing some improvement in sales activity, but have a good ways to go.

GreenwichStreets.com – July 21, 2013 Open House List & Interactive Map

Welcome to this week’s open house list and click here for the interactive map of this Sunday’s open houses.

We also have an extensive market report below on what’s going on in Greenwich real estate so far in July.

This week’s open houses

This month we have 32 open houses. Fourteen of the open houses are under $1 million – our most active part of the market. Curiously, the properties seemed to have arranged themselves in a “U” around the east and west side and down along the Post Road so it should be easy to get from one open house to another. Also this week we are sorting the list by Town so you can see what is in each area. (Let us know what you think. Thx).

Thanks as always to Rob Pulitano for doing the open house list. You can see Rob’s website at GreenwichRealEstatePro.com. The hyperlinks for each of the properties below are courtesy of Jared Randall who also publishes his weekly market stats at GreenwichRealEstateGuy.com.

Address Town Price Time Broker
320 Valley Road Cos Cob $1.749M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
335 Valley Road Cos Cob $2.25M 1-3 PM Raveis
5 Dartmouth Road Cos Cob $2.15M 1-3 PM Sotheby’s
47 Sachem Lane Greenwich $1.095M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
51 Circle Drive Greenwich $1.25M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
69 Stanwich Road Greenwich $1.43M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
44 Orchard Place #A Greenwich $2.275M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
83 Burning Tree Road Greenwich $2.55M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
10 Spring House Road Greenwich $3.75M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
241 Pemberwick Road Greenwich $879K 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
22 Georgetowne N Greenwich $895K 1-4 PM Edwards
107 Stanwich Road Greenwich $999K 2-4 PM Grnwich Fine Prop
44 Nicholas Avenue Greenwich $1.592M 2-4 PM Higgins
31 Fairfield Road Greenwich $12K 2-4 PM Prudential
98 Riverdale Ext. Greenwich $625K 1-4 PM Prudential
1 Douglas Drive Greenwich $649K 1-4 PM Prudential
43 Glenville Street Greenwich $675K 1-4 PM Prudential
25 Rustic View Road Greenwich $1.72M 1-4 PM Prudential
31 Fairfield Road Greenwich $2.495M 2-4 PM Prudential
17 Lincoln Avenue Greenwich $3.2M 1-4 PM Prudential
421 Field Point Rd Greenwich $6.5M 1-4 PM Prudential
27 Stepping Stone Lane Greenwich $2.25M 1-4 PM Raveis
13 Fletcher Avenue Greenwich $665K 1-4 PM Weichert
25 Indian Harbor Drive #4 Greenwich $679.5K 1-3 PM Weichert
10 Fairfield Avenue #A Old Greenwich $749K 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
55 Shore Road Old Greenwich $2.25M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
51 Forest Avenue #159 Old Greenwich $849K 12:30-3:30 PM Prudential
28 Bonwit Road Riverside $924K 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
26 Glen Avon Drive Riverside $5.195M 1-3 PM Centric Property
10 Gilliam Lane Riverside $13.4K 1-4 PM Prudential
38 Wescott Street Riverside $795K 2-4 PM Raveis
15 Linwood Drive Riverside $1.685M 2-4 PM Weichert

5 Dartmouth Road

5 Dartmouth Road, Cos Cob

51 Forest Ave -159

51 Forest Ave., Old Greenwich, #159

98RiverdaleExt

98 Riverdale Ave. Extension, Byram

Greenwich Real Estate First Half 2013 Sales Report – Hot market with slower high end

 INVENTORY DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2012, BUT UP FROM WAY DOWN

You can look at inventory two ways. Month over month we are down slightly from May of 2012 and we are also down slightly from June 2012. What this comparison doesn’t tell is the real inventory shortage that we had suffered through earlier in the year as sellers were slow to put their houses on the market and record sales in December 2012 depleted our inventory. More new listings are coming on the market and below $2 million they are going off pretty quickly.Image

Below $1.5 million the market continues to be combat buying as purchasers rush to buy before they get hit by the double whammy of increasing interest rates and increasing prices in this price range. (If you are a buyer in this price range this is not the time to be waiting for a buyer’s market to come back.)  Under $1.5 million buyers should be pre-approved, have a good broker, a team of other professionals and have discussed how they are going to handle multiple bid situations.

The under $1 million market is by far the most competitive. In Greenwich, listings below $1 million constitute only 10% of the market, but they represent 25% of the 292 single family home sales in the first half of the year. Sales have continued strong in the first part of July and will do so in the third quarter.  We only have 56 house under $1 million on the market and we have 30 pending offers and contracts.

Image

Contracts drop but still ahead of 2012

For the overall market July is traditionally the month with second most sales. As of the end of June we had 162 pending contracts down from 180 contracts and accepted offer earlier this year.  The 162 contracts is still up from 35 contracts from this time last year. Sales should continue to be ahead of 2012.

Image

Price adjustments needed in the over $3 million range to balance market

The over $3 million market continues to be a tough sell with sales down from 16 in the houses in June 2012 to only 10 houses in June 2013, while inventory in this price range is up 8% to 296 listings. For the year we have had 48 sales over $3 MM down only 2 sales from the first half of 2012.

The good news is that this end of the market is looking a little better in so far in July with 8 sales in July, 7 of which are over $5MM. The problem is that we still have almost 300 houses on the market over $3 million dollars and only 48 sales in the first half of the year. The 33 pending high-end contracts and accepted offers show that this end of the market will improve in the third quarter, but in the upper end of the Greenwich real estate market supply will continue to be  measured in years, not months  or even days as it is at the lower end of the market.

Image

We do have people looking at the upper end of the price range, and houses that are priced right do sell, but there are just a lot of great houses out there in the higher end and not enough buyers at today’s prices. Most of the owners at these price ranges can afford to hang on to their homes and wait to see if the market continues to improve. For those sellers that need to sell this year in this price range they need to price aggressively and get a broker that will undertake an integrated marketing campaign. You have to take the message to the buyers. In most cases just listing is not going to get these houses sold.

Image

46 Open House in Greenwich on Sunday 7/14

This week we have 46 open houses from $449,500 to $6,500,000. The complete list is below. You can see the interactive map of all the open houses here.  This weeks Greenwich real estate market report on first half inventory, sales and contracts  appears below the open house list along with a look at the high end market.

I’d like to thank fellow Prudential real estate agents Rob Pulitano for preparing the list and the interactive map and Jared Randall for adding the hot links to the list of open houses below. If you want to see the details on any of these properties just click on the links below. If you are interested in the houses in a particular neighborhood, you can go to the interactive map click on any pin and then click on the MLS number in the pop-up balloon  to get the details on that property.

Rob prepares the list from half a dozen source both on and offline and it is the only complete list of all the open houses in Greenwich. Jared then checks the list and often finds that sources don’t agree as to things like time or even price. He researches the issue to correct any conflict.  I then review the whole thing and prepare the weekly market report. We email it to subscribers, post it to GreenwichStreets.com and to the Greenwich Patch.

 

As you can see it takes a team of Prudential agents and about 8 man hours total  to get you the most complete list of open houses and market info. It also keeps us up to date on what is going on in the market.  Thank you to all of our clients, subscribers, friends, fellow agents and readers who make the effort worthwhile.

 

 

Address Town List Price Time Broker
1465 E Putnam Ave #122 Old Greenwich $449.5K 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
98 Valley Road #2 Cos Cob $488.5K 1-3 PM Raveis
53 Rodwell Ave #A Greenwich $499K 1-2 PM Raveis
11 Lafayette Court #5C Greenwich $525K 1-3 PM Sotheby’s
299 Bruce Park Avenue Greenwich $659K 2-4 PM Raveis
13 Fletcher Avenue Greenwich $665K 1-3 PM Weichert
25 Indian Harbor Drive #4 Greenwich $679.5K 1-3 PM Weichert
32 Cliff Avenue #3 Greenwich $849K 1-3 PM FF Rlty
16 Morgan Avenue Greenwich $865K 1-4 PM Prudential
33 W Putnam Avenue #3G Greenwich $897K 1-4 PM Raveis
70 Riverdale Avenue #701 Greenwich $899K 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
82 A Northfield Street Greenwich $998K 1-4 PM Prudential
35 E Lyon Farm Drive #35 Greenwich $1.095M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
7 Edgewood Drive Greenwich $1.1M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
26 Indian Field Road Greenwich $1.188M 1-3 PM Shore & Cntry
17 Davenport Avenue Greenwich $1.195M 2-4 PM Raveis
21 Mallard Drive Greenwich $1..25M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
51 Circle Drive Greenwich $1.25M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
54 Hawthorne St No Greenwich $1.275M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
240 Palmer Hill Road Old Greenwich $1.375M 2-4 PM Sotheby’s
1050 King Street Greenwich $1.469M 1-3 PM Weichert
41 Leonard Avenue Riverside $1.495M 1-4 PM Prudential
4 Florence Road Riverside $1.495M 2-4 PM Raveis
111 Lake Avenue Greenwich $1.545M 2-4 PM New England Lnd
52 Benjamin Street Old Greenwich $1.575M 1-4 PM Prudential
633 Steamboat Road #1 Greenwich $1.65M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
15 Linwood Avenue Riverside $1.685M 2-4 PM Weichert
30 Stag Lane Greenwich $1.695M 1-4 PM Raveis
68 Lockwood Road Riverside $1.695M 1-4 PM Prudential
164 Dolphin Cove Quay Stamford $2.065M 1-4 PM Prudential
335 Valley Road Cos Cob $2.25M 1-4 PM Raveis
18 Flying Cloud Road Stamford $2.325M 1-4 PM Prudential
28 Brynwood Lane Greenwich $2.65M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
59 Hillside Drive Greenwich $2.695M 1-3 PM Raveis
530 North Street Greenwich $2.795M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
580 Lake Avenue Greenwich $2.975M 1-3 PM Ogilvy
87 Perkins Road Greenwich $3.1M 1-4 PM Prudential
1076 Lake Avenue Greenwich $3.295M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
240 Riverside Avenue Riverside $3.299M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
36 Brookridge Drive Greenwich $3.475M 1-4 PM Prudential
15 Dearfield Lane Greenwich $3.495M 1-4 PM Prudential
16 Grant Avenue Old Greenwich $3.495M 1-4 PM New England Lnd
26 Twin Lakes Lane Riverside $3.599M 12-2 PM Raveis
5 Sylvan Lane Old Greenwich $3.895M 1-3 PM Raveis
212 Taconic Road Greenwich $4.395M 1-4 PM Prudential
18 Pinecroft Road Greenwich $6.5M 1-4 PM Prudential

 

 

 

New Greenwich, CT Tax Rates Public – Way Below Other Fairfield County Towns

GreenwichTown.Seal.012011

The Greenwich BET has released the new tax rates for  2013 – 2014 and they are up less than 3%. The sewered area of the town pays 11.311 mills per thousand dollars of value up 2.8% from 11.000 mills. The unsewered rate, mainly the 2 and 4 acre zones, is now 10.675 from 10.39 for the last tax year.The Bridgeport Board of Realtors sent out the tax rates for the towns in their area and the differences are surprising. In Fairfield and Shelton the tax rate is about double. In Newtown it’s close to triple and Bridgeport itself is 3.7 times the Greenwich mill rate.Greenwich traditionally has the largest grand list so we are lucky in that we can have the lowest tax rate even with a town budget over $400 million.Now the actual taxes you pay are based on the Assessor’s version of FMV for your house times 70% times the tax rate adjusted back to the last revaluation. As a result the taxes paid for similar houses on similar lots in different towns are not as different as the mill rate might suggest. Even so a Greenwich house will often pay less in taxes, be worth more and get more services.

Just to further complicate things the revaluation years for most of the towns are different. Stamford is doing their delayed revaluation now so its base year is different from Greenwich’s 10/1/2010 revaluation date. I was recently looking at houses in Stamford around $1 million and even though the listing prices were close, the taxes varied by almost 100% from the lowest tax to the highest tax. Many of these difference will disappear in this revaluation as the Assesor’s value from many years ago gets adjust to today’s fair market value.

Good schools bring in the younger families and the low tax rates bring in retirees who no longer are getting the high compensation they were getting when they worked.

Greenwich          11.311 (Sewered),  10.675 (Septic rate)

Bridgeport          41.855

Easton                 29.30

Fairfield              23.93

Milford               26.28

Monroe               30.41

Newtown            33.32

Shelton               22.31

Stratford            34.64

Trumbull           31.286

Weston:            23.89

Westport:         18.07

Wilton:               25.9896