14 Open House in Greenwich, CT Sunday before Thanksgiving

We have 14 Open Houses this week from a condo priced at $300,000 to an Old Greenwich home for $3,745,000. Thanks to Rob Pulitano for preparing the list of Open Houses and the interactive map and to Pam Toner for the hot links.

Please click here for the Interactive Map of the Open Houses and please see the static map below and the YTD/October sales chart

 Address Town Price Time Broker
1535 E Putnam Av  #301 Old Greenwich $300,000 12-4 PM Raveis
98 Valley Rd  #2 Greenwich $469,000 1-3 PM Raveis
16 Putnam Park Greenwich $480,000 1-3 PM Weichert
53 William St  #A Greenwich $725,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
561 River Rd Cos Cob $799,000 1-4 PM Raveis
40 Ettl Ln  #14 Greenwich $875,000 1-3 PM Weichert
31 Scott Rd Greenwich $879,500 1-3 PM Weichert
82 Northfield St  #A Greenwich $928,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
123 E Elm St Greenwich $1,195,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
469 Taconic Rd Greenwich $1,782,900 1-3 PM Weichert
55 Shore Rd Old Greenwich $2,349,000 1-4 PM Weichert
72 Shore Rd Old Greenwich $3,275,000 1-3 PM Raveis
279 Stanwich Rd Greenwich $3,495,000 1-3 PM Raveis
16 Binney Ln Old Greenwich $3,745,000 1-3 PM Raveis

Below is the static map of the Open Houses. Please click here for the Interactive Map of the Open Houses.

Open House Map.112413

October chart

Sales.SFH.2012-Oct2013Fnl.mp.112113

Well the final numbers are in from John Cooke and that dip we had in September because of all the anxiety over the pending government shutdown just moved many sales from September to October. Once again we are above the same month in 2012. We are also seeing a growth in contracts in the very high end as the “de Blasio effect” kicks in. Check out GreenwichStreets.com for a longer version of how the new NYC mayor is already reshaping the high end Greenwich market.

Mark Pruner http://greenwichstreets.com
203-869-0500 (off) mark@bhhsne.com
136 East Putnam Ave. 203-969-7900 (cell)
Greenwich, CT 06830 203-869-3141 (fax)
Berkshire Hathaway

New York City Mayor’s “De Blasio Effect” is Driving High End Sales in Greenwich

I.       $250,000,000 of High-End Houses Go to Contract in Greenwich After de Blasio Takes Lead – More Than Whole Prior Year

 Mayor-Elect Bill de Blasio’s rhetoric on income redistribution and increasing taxes on New York City families with incomes over $500,000 has helped high-end sales in Greenwich, CT and, the higher the price range, the more he has helped increase sales. Sales of houses over $5 million were down about one third in the second half of 2013. In the over $10 million category, we only had one sale over $10 million prior to the beginning of August when candidate de Blasio hit the magic 40% level to guarantee at least a runoff.

Starting in August, contracts on high end houses in Greenwich have done much better, corresponding to Bill de Blasio’s increase in standing in the polls (see charts at bottom) and his election. In Greenwich, sales normally peak in June for all price ranges, but contracts for houses over $5 million took off in August.

 Over5MMvsAvg.111613

  • The blue line in the chart shows average sales contracts by month for 2010 – 2012. Contract dates are a better indicator of market sentiment than closing dates, since the lag between contract and closing, particularly at the high end, can vary greatly. The red line shows non-contingent contracts for 2013 through the end of October. Not included in the 2013 numbers are three contingent contracts, two non-continent November contracts and a private sale – all over $5 million.

The jump in August was followed by an equally sudden drop in September, but only back to the average sales of the three previous years, as the pending U.S. government shutdown created buyer indecision. The September drop in contracts was followed by a huge jump up in October in executed contracts. The sales activity has continued in November with five contracts so far this month. In addition, we had a private sale for $25 million.

The total value of 30 sales in the first seven months of 2013 was $202,450,000 while the 15 sales and non-contingent contracts just in the next three months had a list price total of $174,700,000 showing the skew towards the higher end of market as a result of the de Blasio effect on sales.

 Over10MMvsAvg.111913

  • The de Blasio’s effect on sales is greater at the ultra-high end market. As the blue line indicates, on average over the last three years, only one or two houses over $10 million went to contract in any given month, but this number has been much greater in August and October.

In August 2013, we had 5 contracts on houses over $10 million (as many contracts in one month as we had for the whole prior year and the most for any one month in the three previous years). This record month was followed by the same drop in September, as the government shutdown loomed. Then, in October, we had four houses over $10 million go to contract. This occurred in one month, when the average for the 3 prior years was only 0.3 houses. In November, we already have one private sale for $25 million.

II.    Is the de Blasio effect Driving Increased Sales in Greenwich?

The question is: “Is Bill de Blasio’s standing in the polls and subsequent election the real driving force behind all of this high end activity?”

  1. Talk of the De Blasio Effect in the Financial Community

Many people in the financial community are talking about what a New York City run by Mayor de Blasio will look like, particularly after 12 years of New York City being run by billionaire Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Many of them are very concerned that Mayor-elect de Blasio’s talk of redistributing income means it is their income that is going to be redistributed (this in a state where the combined New State and New York City income tax rates are already very high).

Some people have argued that Bill de Blasio’s proposed 2% tax increase is small, but high net worth individuals, particularly those in the financial community, are extraordinarily sensitive to expected changes in tax rates. As can be seen by the unprecedented number of sales in December 2012, the increase in the Obamacare tax and an expected capital gains tax increase resulted in record sales (see chart).

  1. De Blasio Polling Results Correspond with Increased High End Greenwich Sales

Bill de Blasio’s polling numbers were in the teens for much of the year until July when de Blasio’s polling numbers took a big jump upward. By August, he was at the 40% level which assured no run-off and that he would be elected, given the overwhelming number of Democratic voters in New York City compared to Republicans.

Then, in September, we had the government shutdown and sales slowed at all levels. The shutdown was the talk of press for the whole month. The actual federal government shutdown ran from October 1st to October 16th but the deal making impact was mostly in September as the uncertainty impacted the market more than the actual reality of the shutdown.

Sales.SFH.2012-Oct2013Fnl.mp.112113

  • Sales of all Greenwich homes did better in 2013 than in 2012, starting in April. The first quarter sales in 2013 were greatly impacted by the shift of sales into December 2012 to avoid the Obamacare tax and the expected increase in the capital gains tax on higher income families. After the first quarter, sales did much better until the federal government shutdown in October.

C. The de Blasio Sandinista article

The New York Times on September 23, 2013, had a front page article about Mr. de Blasio’s admiration for the socialist Sandinista government in Nicaragua during the Contra rebellion and his honeymoon in Cuba. This story got a lot of buzz (a Google search for “de Blasio Sandinista” returned 81,000 links). This revelation of just how liberal Mayor de Blasio might be appears to have encouraged people who had been contemplating a move to Greenwich to finally go to contract, even in the midst of a federal government shutdown.

D. Taxes, Union Problems and Other Issues

Candidate de Blasio has strongly advocated universal pre-school to be paid by a tax on those with incomes over $500,000. Mayor de Blasio’s emphasis on reducing inequality may also mean that he will address the wide disparities in property tax amounts compared to market values.

Many New Yorkers in the financial community are also concerned about the union contracts that de Blasio will negotiate with hundreds of thousands of municipal employees who have been working without contracts under the Bloomberg administration. The general belief is that Mayor de Blasio will be much more generous with the unions, resulting in even higher taxes on top income brackets.

 

III. What Can Be Expected in the Coming Months

In this price range, tax considerations drive not only where people buy houses, but also when they buy. Year end deals are common, so we should see a number of contracts mature into sales and several quick sales as people try to close before year end.

We also will probably see more interest in the backcountry, as New York City residents look for weekend retreats, a market that had just started to come back. Weekend houses can also help when a New York City property owner is trying to stay below the 183 days of New York City residency that will make them subject to New York City taxes. Greenwich is a lot closer than the Hamptons and also adds to your non-New York State residency days, unlike the Hamptons.

We should also see months of supply come down quickly as these contracts become sales. In the over $10 million category, we only have 47 listings, so a dozen sales will have a big impact on market perception and sellers’ willingness to concede on price. As always, the early movers will have the advantage of greater inventory choice and lower prices.

Greenwich Complete Open House List for 11/17/13 – 32 Open Houses

This week we have 32 Open Houses including one rental. The prices range from a condo starting at $279,000 to a home at $11,250,000. You can see the interactive map here. {The static map is below.)

This week’s open houses is a good example of how the Greenwich market has changed.. We have 11 open houses from $1 – 2 million nearly all are in mid-country and backcountry. We have 14 listings over $2 million dollars and most of those are in Old Greenwich and Riverside. In earlier years the distribution would have been just the reverse. Just a sign of the demand for houses in OG and Riverside.

Greenwich, CT Open Houses for 11/17/13

 

 

 

Thanks to Rob Pulitano for preparing the list of Open Houses and interactive map and to Pam Toner for the hot links and static map.

Lastly, I’m not having an open house this weekend, but 46 Chapel has been reduced to $579,000 and is in move-in condition so it’s a good value.

 

Address Town Price Time Broker
28 Mianus View Ter Cos Cob $6,500 1-4 PM Ogilvy
52 Lafayette Pl, # 4b Greenwich $279,900 2-4 PM Raveis
1535 E Putnam Av  #301 Old Greenwich $300,000 2-4 PM Raveis
203 River Run  #203 Greenwich $495,000 1-3 PM Raveis
47 Lafayette Pl  #3H Greenwich $495,000 2-4 PM Sothebys
561 River Rd Cos Cob $799,000 1-3 PM Raveis
70 Riverdale Av  #701 Greenwich $859,000 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
30 Caroline Pl Greenwich $1,195,000 1-4 PM Raveis
49 Indian Mill Rd Greenwich $1,295,000 1-3 PM Raveis
11 Steep Hollow Ln Cos Cob $1,349,000 1-3 PM Greenwich Fine Prop
11 Sunshine Ave Riverside $1,399,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
41 Leonard Av Riverside $1,495,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
236 Bedford Rd Greenwich $1,595,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
30 Stag Ln Greenwich $1,595,000 1-4 PM Raveis
469 Taconic Rd Greenwich $1,732,900 11-1 PM Weichert
43 Stag Ln Greenwich $1,745,000 2-4 PM Sothebys
16 Fairview Ter Greenwich $1,995,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
21 Wyngate Rd Greenwich $1,995,000 2-4 PM Sothebys
48 Highview Av Old Greenwich $2,199,000 1-3 PM Raveis
55 Shore Rd Old Greenwich $2,349,000 1-3 PM Weichert
17 Hawkwood Ln Greenwich $2,590,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
27 Perkins Rd Greenwich $2,795,000 2-4 PM Sothebys
76 Cat Rock Rd Cos Cob $2,999,000 2-4 PM Sothebys
241 Riverside Ave Riverside $3,300,000 2-4 PM Sothebys
10 Gilliam Ln Riverside $3,300,000 2-4 PM Sothebys
20 Marks Rd Riverside $3,595,000 1-3 PM Berkshire Hathaway
7 Hearthstone Dr Riverside $3,600,000 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
20 West End Av Old Greenwich $3,899,000 1-3 PM Higgins Grp
7 Binney Ln Old Greenwich $3,995,000 2-4 PM Houlihan Lawrence
41 Baldwin Farms So. Greenwich $4,500,000 2-4 PM Sothebys
26 Glen Avon Dr Riverside $4,850,000 1-4 PM Houlihan Lawrence
18 Chimney Corner Ln Greenwich $11,250,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr

 

 

 

31 Open Houses Sunday 11/10/13

This week we have 31 open houses from a condo for $469,000 to an Old Greenwich house for $4,850,000. You can see the interactive map here. The static map is below. Thanks to Rob Pulitano for preparing the list of open houses and the interactive map and to Pam Toner for the hot links.

Address Town  Price Time Broker
98 Valley Rd  #2 Cos Cob $469,000 1-3 PM Raveis
20 High St Greenwich $575,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
46 Chapel St Greenwich $579,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
9 River Rd  #418 Cos Cob $595,000 1-4 PM Real Living
17 Fletcher Ave Greenwich $750,000 2-4 PM New Enlnd Lnd
24 Caroline Pl Greenwich $795,000 2-4 PM Ogilvy
197 Sheephill Rd  #D Riverside $799,995 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
6 Huested Dr Old Greenwich $1,075,000 1-3 PM Shore & Cntry
3 Woodland Drive Greenwich $1,250,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
11 Manor Rd Old Greenwich $1,195,000 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
240 Palmer Hill Rd Old Greenwich $1,375,000 2-4 PM Sotheby’s
25 Nearwater Ln Riverside $1,449,000 1-3 PM Shore & Cntry
111 Lake Av Greenwich $1,595,000 2-4 PM Houlihan Lawrence
226 Riverside Av Riverside $1,595,000 2-4 PM Sotheby’s
88 Starin Dr Stamford $1,699,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
469 Taconic Rd Greenwich $1,782,900 1-4 PM Weichert
14 Perryridge Rd Greenwich $1,895,000 1-3 PM Shore & Cntry
184 Shore Rd Old Greenwich $2,100,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
55 Shore Rd Old Greenwich $2,349,000 1-4 PM Weichert
83 Burning Tree Rd Greenwich $2,450,000 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
317 Stanwich Rd Greenwich $2,495,000 12-2 PM Coldwell Bnkr
7 Dearfield Ln Greenwich $2,495,000 1-3 PM Shore & Cntry
240 Riverside Av Riverside $3,149,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
10 Ledge Rd Old Greenwich $3,450,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
33 Ballwood Rd Old Greenwich $3,895,000 2-4 PM Houlihan Lawrence
20 West End Av Old Greenwich $3,899,000 1-3 PM Higgins Grp
43 Richmond Hill Rd Greenwich $3,950,000 1-3 PM Houlihan Lawrence
11 Cove Rd Old Greenwich $4,400,000 1-3 PM Berkshire Hathaway
585 Round Hill Rd Greenwich $4,495,000 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
30 Oneida Dr Greenwich $4,550,000 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
15 West Way Old Greenwich $4,850,000 1-3 PM Halstead Prop
Greenwich, CT Open Houses 11/10/13

Greenwich, CT Open Houses 11/10/13

October Greenwich R.E. Sales Once Again Exceed 2012 Unlike September

GREENWICH, CT OCTOBER REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT & STATISTICS

September 2013 was a strange month in that sales were down significantly from 2012 after a string of five months where 2013 sales outpaced 2012’s monthly sales. In October we got back on track with 45 sales and those are only the preliminary numbers from the Greenwich MLS. We’ll have some additional FSBOs, REOs and private transaction reported later by the Greenwich Town Clerk.

Single Family Home Sales in Greenwich 2012 versus 2013

  OCTOBER 2013 GREENWICH R.E. SALES, CONTRACTS & MONTHS OF SUPPLY

Oct. 2013

Inventory

Contracts

Mo. Solds

Tot. Solds+Ks

YTD Solds

 YTD+Ks

Mos Supply

Mos w/ Ks

Instaneous Mos

< $600K

10

5

3

8

34

39

2.9

2.9

3.3

$600-$800K

21

8

4

12

44

52

4.8

4.6

5.3

$800K-$1M

16

11

3

14

55

66

2.9

2.8

5.3

$1-$1.5M

40

18

8

26

107

125

3.7

3.7

5.0

$1.5-$2M

46

18

4

22

91

109

5.1

4.9

11.5

$2-$3M

90

22

10

32

112

134

8.0

7.7

9.0

$3-$4M

86

12

3

15

39

51

22.1

19.4

28.7

$4-$5M

44

3

3

6

20

23

22.0

22.0

14.7

$5-7.5M

68

6

6

12

29

35

23.4

22.3

11.3

$7.5-$10M

30

1

0

1

5

6

60.0

57.5

> $10M

47

6

1

7

5

11

94.0

49.1

47.0

TOTAL

498

110

45

155

541

651

9.2

8.8

11.1

  • Inventory has shrunk below 500 house listings
  • Contracts are up over 100 pending sales so the rest of the year should look good
  • 45 sales were reported by GMLS in October and we’ll have a additional private sales reported later
  • The market under $1.5MM continues tight
  • The market from $4 – 7.5MM perked up in October
  • The over $10MM market continues to get better

GREENWICH INVENTORY, SALES YTD, OCTOBER SALES & CONTRACTS

GREENWICH INVENTORY, SALES YTD, OCTOBER SALES & CONTRACTS

  • Sales under $1MM are supply constrained and combat buying continues
  • The bulk of Greenwich home sales are from $1 – 3MM
  • The bulk of inventory is from $2 – 7.5MM
  • Over $3 million is a buyer’s market, but contracts show $3 – 4MM improving
  • The over $10 million market is actually doing better than the $7.5 – 10MM market.

GREENWICH R.E. MONTHS OF SUPPLY BY YTD SALES, SALES & CONTRACTS, AND CURRENT MONTH ANNUALIZED

 

Oct2013.MosSupply.110213

  • The market is tight all the way up to $2MM
  • The sales pace in October was a little slower at the low end
  • October sales pace was much better from $4 – 7.5MM and over $10MM
  • Contract activity is doing very well above $10MM and from $5 – 7.5MM compared to earlier in the year

35 Open Houses in Greenwich on Sunday 11/3/13

OPEN HOUSE LIST & INTERACTIVE MAP

 

This week we have 35 open houses with a good representation in all price ranges up to $5 million.

 

Thanks to Rob Pulitano for preparing the list of open houses and the interactive map and to Pam Toner for the hot links.

 

I’m doing the first open house on my new listing at 46 Chapel Street in Pemberwick. This is a great 3 bedroom, 2 bath house in move-in condition listed at only $599,000. If you are looking in this highly competitive price range feel free to stop by from 1 – 4 pm this Sunday.  (For more info on how each price range is doing see the October Greenwich market report below. )

 

 

 

Address Town Price

Time

Broker
3 Putnam Hill  #4F Greenwich

$290,000

1-3 PM

Coldwell Bnkr
1465 E Putnam Av  #115 Old Greenwich

$355,000

1-3 PM

Coldwell Bnkr
46 Chapel St Greenwich

$599,000

1-4 PM

Berkshire Hathaway
15 River Rd  #210 Cos Cob

$729,000

1-3 PM

Coldwell Bnkr
24 Caroline Pl Greenwich

$795,000

2-5 PM

Ogilvy
397 Davis Ave Greenwich

$859,000

2-4 PM

Berkshire Hathaway
70 Riverdale Av  #701 Greenwich

$859,000

2-4 PM

Coldwell Bnkr
31 Scott Rd Greenwich

$879,500

12-2 PM

Weichert
40 Ettl Lane  #14 Greenwich

$890,000

1-3 PM

Weichert
189 Old Mill Rd Greenwich

$995,000

1-3 PM

Round Hill Prtnrs
123 E Elm St Greenwich

$1,195,000

1-3 PM

Coldwell Bnkr
54 Hawthorne St No Greenwich

$1,250,000

2-4 PM

Coldwell Bnkr
67 Sound Beach Av Old Greenwich

$1,250,000

12-3 PM

Coldwell Bnkr
15 Stonebrook Ln Cos Cob

$1,450,000

12-3 PM

Round Hill Prtnrs
30 Stonebrook Ln Cos Cob

$1,495,000

1-3 PM

Houlihan Lawrence
57 Hillside Dr Greenwich

$1,699,000

2-4 PM

Coldwell Bnkr
276 Southfield Ave Stamford

$1,725,000

1-4 PM

Berkshire Hathaway
469 Taconic Rd Greenwich

$1,782,900

1-3 PM

Weichert
2 William St Riverside

$1,790,000

1-3 PM

Houlihan Lawrence
127 Dolphin Cove Quay Stamford

$1,850,000

1-4 PM

Halstead
47 N Stanwich Rd Greenwich

$2,299,000

2-3:30 PM

Raveis
55 Shore Rd Old Greenwich

$2,349,000

1-3 PM

Weichert
54 Glenville Rd Greenwich

$2,395,000

2-4 PM

Houlihan Lawrence
58 Park Av So Old Greenwich

$2,449,000

1-3 PM

Shore & Cntry
10 Newton St Riverside

$2,895,000

1-4 PM

Berkshire Hathaway
46 Will Merry Ln Greenwich

$2,995,000

11-1:30 PM

Berkshire Hathaway
71 Shore Rd Old Greenwich

$2,995,000

1-4 PM

Berkshire Hathaway
900 Lake Av Greenwich

$3,195,000

1-4 PM

Raveis
72 Shore Rd Old Greenwich

$3,275,000

2-4 PM

Raveis
16 Binney Ln Old Greenwich

$3,745,000

2-4 PM

Raveis
7 Binney Ln Old Greenwich

$3,995,000

1-3 PM

Houlihan Lawrence
20 West End Av Old Greenwich

$4,189,000

1-4 PM

Higgins Grp
396 North St Greenwich

$4,200,000

1-3 PM

Berkshire Hathaway
150 Clapboard Ridge Rd Greenwich

$4,295,000

2-4 PM

Raveis
30 Oneida Dr Greenwich

$4,550,000

2-4 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

 

 

 

Berkshire Hathaway Realty Connecticut 3rd Quarter Report

Berkshire Hathaway 3rdQ 2013 CT Report

Berkshire Hathaway is out with the most comprehensive report on the Connecticut real estate market; one of the benefits of having coverage throughout Connecticut. Throughout the state sales are up significantly. As with Greenwich good sales were reported in the third quarter with sales up 13%. Median prices were also up, but to show you what a unique market Greenwich, the median price for a house sold in Connecticut is $259,000. In Greenwich the median price for sales so far in 2013 is $1,675,000.