Greenwich Market Turned Upside Down as April Sales Continue Growth in Luxury Sales

MARKET REPORT FOR APRIL 26, 2014
The most revealing and at the same time the confusing chart is the months of supply. For the last four years this has been a fairly smooth curve with as low as 2 -3 months of supply under $600K and years of supply over $10M. Take a look at the chart below showing months of supply as of Friday, April 24, 2014 and check out how ragged it lots. Let’s take a quick run through the price ranges to see what may be happening to the Greenwich market in 2014. 
Apr14MoS.mp.042614
Under $800 – This section is competitive, but sales are actually lagging a little compared to 2013. Last year we saw this price range with 2 and 3 months of supply. There are plenty of buyer’s out there in this price range. (My new listing at 49 Center Drive in OG has had 14 showings 2-1/2 days.) Looks like what we have may be a little picked over resulting in less sales velocity.
$800K – $1.5M – This market segment has seen a bunch of new listings and it takes buyers awhile to burn through the new inventory. Expect to see months of supply drop back to 6 months of supply and under in the next few months.
$1.5M – $5M – This is where the market has really changed. We used to have lots more months of supply when you hit $3M+, but this year from $2 – 5M we have had about the same 13 months of supply throughout this price. So far in 2014 61 sales out of total 133 sales have been in this price range. This is now the heart of the market. One reason maybe that the financial industry folks that predominate in this price category are now “fully-bonused” with delayed compensation from prior years and their stock awards appreciating with the rising stock market making the $3M+ house in Greenwich look attractive.
$5 -$10M – These same fully bonused buyers seem to drop out over $5M. We have over a four year supply of inventory in this price range at present sales rate. The white bar in the $7.5 – 10M shows a glimmer of hope. It shows the months of supply if you take the April sales so far and annualize them. The two sales so far in April would equal 24 sales for the year or the equivalent of 14 months of supply. The nice thing is that we are seeing more activity in the backcountry, another 2014 change from prior years. (BTW: I’m thinking of going back to just one $5 – 10M category, since the $7.5 – 10M is traditionally small. Let me know if you happen to track this category and I’ll keep it.)
Over $10M–This category is astounding! Rarely have we seen such a sharp change in demand. Last year at this time months of supply was over 6 years and that was only if you counted the one contract we had. So far in April we have had three properties sell for over $10M including an all-time U.S. record house sale of $120,000,000. Contracts are looking good too. We now have six contracts for houses over $10M for total 12 houses sold or under contract. If you annualize this month’s sales you are looking 12 months supply as the inventory in this category has dropped to only 36 units available. This 12months of supply is a faster sales rate than the $1 – 1.5MM price range.
If you are someone who has been waiting to put your over $10M house on the market give me a call a call at 203-969-7900.  New listings always stand out and the buyers are out there. If you are a prospective buyer in the over $10M price range whose been waiting, now’s the time to start actively looking and making offers
Apr. 26, 2014
Inventory
Contracts
Mo. Solds
Tot. Solds+ Contracts
YTD Solds
YTD+ Contracts
Mos Supply
Mos w/ Contracts
Mo. Annlzd
< $600K
12
4
2
6
6
10
7.7
6.4
6.0
$600-$800K
19
11
4
15
12
23
6.1
4.4
4.8
$800K-$1M
26
8
3
11
8
16
12.5
8.7
8.7
$1-$1.5M
53
26
4
30
19
45
10.8
6.3
13.3
$1.5-$2M
57
16
4
20
14
30
15.7
10.2
14.3
$2-$3M
96
23
5
28
30
53
12.4
9.7
19.2
$3-$4M
73
17
6
23
20
37
14.1
10.6
12.2
$4-$5M
37
9
3
12
11
20
13.0
9.9
12.3
$5-7.5M
75
3
0
3
5
8
57.9
50.3
$7.5-$10M
28
2
2
4
2
4
54.0
37.5
14.0
> $10M
36
6
3
9
6
12
23.2
16.1
12.0
TOTAL
512
125
36
161
133
258
14.9
10.6
14.2
Good house hunting,
Mark

A Massive 79 Open Houses in Greenwich, CT on Sunday, 4/27/14

Greenwich Open Houses
Sunday, April 27, 2014
We have 79 open houses and the Forsythia, Dogwoods and Daffodils are out! Driving around Greenwich leads to some really beautiful views so it’s a good time to go for a drive. If you do go I’m having an open house in Old Greenwich from 2 – 4:30 pm at 49 Center Drive in Old Greenwich just off Sound Beach Ave. At $779,000 in OG is should go pretty fast, so feel free to stop by.
The open house prices range from $469,000 to $6,195,000.The good news is that the times are staggered for many homes which gives you an opportunity to plan your route and see as many as possible.
The Open Houses span all areas of Greenwich. If you are looking under $1M you have 18 choices, several having their first open house. If you are looking over $2M you have an amazing 50 properties to choose from. Check out the interactive map and the schedules to plan your afternoon.
Please click here for the interactivemap. The static map is below.
Thanks to Rob Pulitano for doing yeoman’s work to pull together all 79 Open House and the interactive map. Thanks to Pam Toner for the hot links and the Word document attached. The Word document prints out betterif you are looking for something to take with you in the car.
You can see my market analysis below. It’s worth taking a look at, the market trends we are seeing are much different from anything we have seen in the last four years.
OPEN HOUSE LIST FOR SUNDAY, APRIL 27, 2014
Address
Town
Price
Time
Broker
Riverside
$469,000
3-5 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Greenwich
$535,000
1-4 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Cos Cob
$550,000
1-3 PM
Real Living
Greenwich
$649,000
2-4 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Greenwich
$680,000
1-4 PM
New England Land
Cos Cob
$749,000
12-2 PM
Sotheby’s
Cos Cob
$749,000
1-3 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Cos Cob
$749,900
1-3 PM
Sotheby’s
Old Greenwich
$779,000
2-4:30 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Stamford
$799,000
1-3 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Greenwich
$799,000
1-3 PM
Houlihan Lawrence
Greenwich
$820,000
1-3 PM
Shore & Cnrty
Greenwich
$845,000
1-3 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Greenwich
$845,000
2-4 PM
Sotheby’s
Greenwich
$875,000
1-5 PM
Weichert
Greenwich
$875,000
2-4 PM
Weichert
Riverside
$939,000
1-3 PM
Shore & Cnrty
Greenwich
$995,000
1-4 PM
Raveis
Greenwich
$1,049,000
12-2 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Greenwich
$1,095,000
2-4 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Cos Cob
$1,099,000
2-4 PM
Newbridge Int
Cos Cob
$1,099,000
1-3 PM
Newbridge Int
Greenwich
$1,150,000
1-3 PM
William Pitt Sotheby’s
Greenwich
$1,175,000
1-3 PM
Weichert
Cos Cob
$1,195,000
1-3 PM
Raveis
Old Greenwich
$1,195,000
1-3 PM
Halstead Prop
Greenwich
$1,275,000
1-4 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Greenwich
$1,285,000
1-3 PM
Sotheby’s
Cos Cob
$1,295,000
2-4 PM
Houlihan Lawrence
Riverside
$1,295,000
2-4 PM
Sotheby’s
Greenwich
$1,295,000
11-1 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Greenwich
$1,300,000
1-3 PM
Raveis
Cos Cob
$1,350,000
1-3 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Greenwich
$1,398,888
1-3 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Old Greenwich
$1,490,000
1-4 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Greenwich
$1,495,000
1-4 PM
Weichert
Greenwich
$1,500,000
1-4 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Greenwich
$1,545,000
1-3 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Greenwich
$1,550,000
1-3 PM
Weichert
Old Greenwich
$1,695,000
1-4 PM
Raveis
Greenwich
$1,695,000
1-3 PM
Sotheby’s
Greenwich
$1,695,000
1-3 PM
Sotheby’s
Greenwich
$1,795,000
1-4 PM
Raveis
Greenwich
$1,995,000
1-4 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Greenwich
$1,995,000
1-3 PM
Keller Williams
Greenwich
$2,150,000
1-4 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Riverside
$2,150,000
1-3 PM
Sotheby’s
Old Greenwich
$2,193,000
1-3 PM
Sotheby’s
Greenwich
$2,195,000
2-4 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Old Greenwich
$2,195,000
2-4 PM
Newbridge Int
Riverside
$2,250,000
1-4 PM
Centric Property Group, Inc
Old Greenwich
$2,325,000
1-3 PM
Weichert
Riverside
$2,375,000
1-4 PM
Houlihan Lawrence
Greenwich
$2,449,000
2-4 PM
Houlihan Lawrence
Riverside
$2,495,000
1-3 PM
Raveis
Greenwich
$2,499,000
12-2 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Stamford
$2,525,000
1-3 PM
Sotheby’s
Riverside
$2,575,000
1-4 PM
Raveis
Greenwich
$2,600,000
1-4 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Riverside
$2,695,000
1-4 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Riverside
$2,895,000
1-3 PM
Raveis
Greenwich
$2,895,000
1-3 PM
Sotheby’s
Greenwich
$2,995,000
1-4 PM
Raveis
Greenwich
$2,995,000
1-4 PM
Halstead Prop
Riverside
$2,995,000
1-4 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Cos Cob
$3,100,000
1-3 PM
Sotheby’s
Greenwich
$3,195,000
1-4 PM
Raveis
Greenwich
$3,495,000
1-3 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Old Greenwich
$3,575,000
1-4 PM
Sotheby’s
Greenwich
$3,650,000
1-3 PM
Keller Williams
Old Greenwich
$3,700,000
2-4 PM
New England Land
Greenwich
$3,875,000
1-4 PM
Raveis
Riverside
$3,989,000
1-3 PM
Sotheby’s
Riverside
$4,175,000
1-3 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Greenwich
$4,295,000
2-4 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Old Greenwich
$4,400,000
1-4 PM
Berkshire Hathaway
Greenwich
$4,475,000
1-3 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Greenwich
$4,500,000
1-3 PM
Sotheby’s
Greenwich
$6,195,000
2-4 PM
Coldwell Bnkr
Below is the static map of the Open Houses: 
79 Open Houses in Greenwich, CT on April 27th

79 Open Houses in Greenwich, CT on April 27th

Home Sales Over $10 Million Accelerating in Greenwich, CT

Over $10 Million Homes Sales Doing Much Better in Greenwich

John Christeroffersen of the Associated Press has a very good article about the rise in sales over $10 million homes in Greenwich and was nice enough to quote me. The article has appeared from coast to coast showing the continuing interest in Greenwich and the high end market.

The pace of the highest end sales is accelerating. We have had 6 properties sell for over $10 million this year. Three of these sales actually went to contract in 2013; one in March and two in October. We then had a contract in each of January, February and March. April is when things really started to take off with four “contracts” in the first 16 days. (Two of the properties went right from active to sold in the same day.)

$10M Real Estate Inventory as of  4/16/14

Greenwich CT Over $10M Real Estate Inventory as of 4/16/14

Greenwich Over $10M Home Inventory

Greenwich Over $10M Single Family Home Sales & Contracts as of 4/16/14

Our inventory of over $10 million listings is actually starting to deplete and months of supply is rapidly declining. In March of 2013 we only had one contract which with 44 active listings gave us 189 months of supply or over 15 years. As of today 4/16/13  we have 10 sales and contracts and only 38 listings. Our months of supply is down to 22.8 months or less than two years of supply.

The other interesting thing about sales this year are where they are in Greenwich.  Six of the ten properties are in backcountry Greenwich, the traditional home of Manhattanites looking for a weekend place. Backcountry Greenwich is less than an hour from Manhattan. Even on a Friday in the summer when the roads to the Hamptons are packed you can hop a Metro-North train and be by your pool in 75 minutes.

The great thing is all of these houses are gorgeous and each one is different. In this price range buyers are very particular and they may find that their options are actually very limited. If you want to live on Long Island in Old Greenwich you only have two choices in this price. So if you are interested in seeing one of these houses before they all disappear give me a call at 203-969-7900.

 

Greenwich, CT First Quarter Real Estate Report

MARKET REPORT 1st QUARTER PART TWO

 

  Under $1MM

As reported last week, 2014 has been a different year than the three proceeding years.  The two charts that show this best are below. The first pie chart shows first quarter sales. In the last couple of years the segment under $1 million was a small part of the inventory, but they represented a much larger portion of the sales. We see this somewhat in 2014 as the first three pie pieces are a little bigger in the Solds chart than in the Inventory chart, but not that much bigger.

Mar2014.SoldsYTDPie.mp.040314Mar2014.InvPie.mp.040314

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$1M – 3M

If you look at the inventory chart and compare the width of the pie slices you can see that the standout section is the $2 – 3 million (ochre slice). It represents more than a quarter of sales, but less than a fifth of inventory. The other segment that stands out is the $1 – 1.5 M price range which has been selling well in Greenwich for years.

Over $3M

This price in prior years has been a fraction of sales. Now the $3 – 4M segment and the $4 – 5M sales slices are actually bigger than their inventory slices showing accelerating sales in these price ranges. It’s only when we get over $5M that we see the sales rate at less than the inventory. Having said this these categories were nearly none existent last year at this time. So far this year sales over $5 M represent 8% of our sales.

Mar2014.ContractPie.mp.040314 Mar2014.Inv.SalesPie.mp.040314

 

March Sales and Contracts

 

When you look at sales in March and pending contracts you can see that sales in low end under $2 million are rebounding from earlier this year, particularly in the $1.5 – 2.0M range. The good news for the high end is that we have contracts represented in every price range with the $3 – 4M price range looking particularly good.

 

Mar2014.Inv.Sale.YTD.mp.040314

 

49 Open Houses in Greenwich, CT on Palm Sunday

Greenwich Open Houses

Sunday, April 13, 2014

 

This  weekend presents a major effort to show off as much inventory as possible due to the holidays that start next week. There are 49 Open Houses scheduled for Sunday, April 13th. The prices range from a  $4,000 per month rental to a single family home for $6,500,000. The Open Houses span the full acreage of the town of Greenwich and into Stamford, from 31 Scott Road in Banksville to 7 Charter Oak Lane in Byram and up to Shippan in Stamford. Check out the interactive map and the schedules to plan your afternoon.

Please click here for the interactive map. The static map is below.

Thanks to Rob Pulitano for preparing the list of Open Houses and the interactive map and to Pam Toner for the hot links and the Word document attached and to Mark Pruner for the market analysis. The Word document prints out nicer if you are looking for something to take with you in the car.

 

Address Town Price Time Broker
333 Palmer Hill Road  #2B Riverside $4,000 12-2 PM Coldwell Bnkr
56 Milbank Avenue  #2 Greenwich $18,000 11-1 PM Coldwell Bnkr
79 Harbor Drive  #303 Stamford $465,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
34 Talbot Lane Greenwich $475,000 1-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
138 N Water Street Greenwich $525,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
112 Putnam Park  #112 Greenwich $535,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
43 Harbor Drive  #206 Stamford $549,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
27 Byram Terrace Drive Greenwich $575,000 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
48 Almira Drive Greenwich $635,000 1-3 PM Raveis
58 Greenwich Hills Drive  #58 Greenwich $700,000 2-4 PM Anderson Assoc
47 Lafayette Place  #2A Greenwich $745,000 1-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
3 Windy Knolls Greenwich $750,000 2-4 PM Prime Sites
43 Sinawoy Road Cos Cob $769,000 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
61 Seaside Avenue  #59 Stamford $790,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
30 Ettl Lane Greenwich $820,000 1-3 PM Shore & Cntry
6 Buena Vista Drive Greenwich $875,000 1-3 PM Weichert
31 Scott Rd Greenwich $879,500 2-4 PM Weichert
42 Windy Knolls Greenwich $949,000 2-4 PM Raveis
7 Charter Oak Lane Greenwich $989,000 1-3 PM Shore & Cntry
5 MacArthur Drive Old Greenwich $1,150,000 1-4 PM Weichert
160 Valley Road Cos Cob $1,195,000 2-4 PM Raveis
62 Valleywood Road Cos Cob $1,295,000 2-4 PM Houlihan Lawrence
6 Highview Avenue Old Greenwich $1,395,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
45 Orchard Place  #E Greenwich $1,398,888 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
30 Stag Lane Greenwich $1,595,000 1-3 PM Raveis
330 Sound Beach Avenue Old Greenwich $1,695,000 1-4 PM Raveis
179 Stanwich Road Greenwich $1,695,000 1-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
184 Shore Road Old Greenwich $1,795,000 1-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
87 Lake Avenue Greenwich $1,800,000 2-4 PM Houlihan Lawrence
44 Orchard Place  #A Greenwich $2,050,000 1-3 PM Berkshire Hathaway
6 Gaston Farm Road Greenwich $2,325,000 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
55 Shore Rd Old Greenwich $2,325,000 1-3 PM Weichert
25 Willowmere Avenue Riverside $2,495,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
15 Palmer Terrace Riverside $2,495,000 1-4 PM Raveis
48 Lockwood Avenue Old Greenwich $2,875,000 2-4 PM Raveis
268 Palmer Hill Road Riverside $2,895,000 1-3 PM Raveis
7 Juniper Hill Road Greenwich $2,995,000 2-4 PM Raveis
276 Riversville Road Greenwich $2,995,000 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
5 Sylvan Lane Old Greenwich $3,195,000 12-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
16 Grant Ave Old Greenwich $3,200,000 2-4 PM New England Prop
35 Willow Road Riverside $3,350,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
33 Alpine Road Greenwich $3,588,000 1-3 PM Raveis
96 Meadow Road Riverside $3,950,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
56 Milbank Avenue  #B Greenwich $3,995,000 11-1 PM Coldwell Bnkr
132 Cedar Cliff Road Riverside $3,995,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway
12 Rocky Point Road Old Greenwich $3,995,000 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr
585 Round Hill Road Greenwich $4,495,000 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
5 Grimes Road Old Greenwich $4,495,000 12-2 PM Coldwell Bnkr
421 Field Point Road Greenwich $6,500,000 1-4 PM Berkshire Hathaway

 

Copper Beech Farm sells for $120 million in Greenwich, CT

Copper Beach Farm - 499 Indian Field Road, Greenwich, CT

Copper Beach Farm – 499 Indian Field Road,
Greenwich, CT

***

Update @ 5 pm

The buyer of Copper Beech Farm is The Conservation Institute, LLC. This Connecticut LLC was formed on 4/2/14, presumably to purchase the property. The LLC is managed by Jonathan Whitcomb of Diserio Martin in Stamford as reported by the New Canaanite. The price is still a surprise to many in the community. So the identity of the Conservation Institute is still a matter of major speculation with some wondering whether this has anything to do with owner’s forestry properties in Montana.

***

 

The Greenwich MLS just listed Cooper Beach Farm at 499 Indian Field Road as having sold $120 million. This 50 acre Greenwich waterfront property included two small islands in Long Island Sound. David Ogilvy of David Ogilvy & Associates was both the listing and the selling broker. The 12 bedroom 7/2 house was constructed in 1898 and has 13,519 s.f. of above ground living space. While a beautiful house that was renovated in 1985 it was a period piece with no central air conditioning. As a result the bedrooms with best views in the house were the servants bedroom which were directly below the roof.

The 50 acres property is in a 2 acre zone which with a 15% subdivision set aside as required in Greenwich could theoretically allow 21 lots many with direct waterfront exposure, but when roads and other amenities are added there would be fewer lots. Certainly, the future use of this property will be the talk of the town for the next week.

 

Greenwich Real Estate 1st Quarter Statistics & Market Info – A New Year

MARKET REPORT

First Quarter Sales Numbers

 

Mar. 2014 Inventory Contracts Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds  YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts
< $600K 12 3 2 5 4 7 9.0 7.7
$600-$800K 17 8 4 12 8 16 6.4 4.8
$800K-$1M 18 8 1 9 5 13 10.8 6.2
$1-$1.5M 44 16 6 22 15 31 8.8 6.4
$1.5-$2M 56 16 2 18 10 26 16.8 9.7
$2-$3M 88 11 6 17 25 36 10.6 11.0
$3-$4M 62 18 5 23 14 32 13.3 8.7
$4-$5M 32 7 1 8 8 15 12.0 9.6
$5-7.5M 71 3 1 4 5 8 42.6 39.9
$7.5-$10M 26 4 0 4 0 4 29.3
> $10M 44 4 0 4 3 7 44.0 28.3
TOTAL 470 98 28 126 97 195 14.5 10.8

 

If you just look at total solds graph below, sales are down after the tough winter, but they are up compared to last year in our mid-market $2 – 5 million. The $3 – 5 million market is also getting tighter with months of supply less than an year in what for anywhere else would be the high end mSales.SFH.2012-Mar2014Prelim.mp.040314arket. Our under $1 million market is supplied constrained and what is there is a very picked over market.

 

Sales Mostly Up & Some Down – Greenwich real estate had a stellar year in 2013 with 724 single family homes sold nearly the same as the 729 houses sold in the boom year of 2006. What had changed post-recession was the mix of sales with houses under $2 million dollars doing better as well properties closer to town. Many buyers now want to be closer to their neighbors with a house on a main road.  After March Greenwich sales stayed well above average until the U.S. government shutdown through a kink in September sales, but it only pushed sales into October. January 2014, normally a slow month was excellent then the hard winter slowed sales somewhat in February and March.

 

Mar2014.MoofSup.Ks.bar.mp.040314

$2 -5 M and over $10 million Takeoff

From 2010 to July 2013 the Greenwich house market was very consistent with a seller’s market under $1.5 million and a buyer’s market over $3 million. This changed with record highs in the market and the election of Mayor de Blasio. So far in 2014 we have seen $3 – 4 million homes sell almost as fast as houses under $600,000 homes. We’ve also seen the months of supply of over $10 million dollars home cut in half as financial company buyers become “fully bonused” with deferred compensation and their appreciated stock rewards from prior years accumulating vest in larger amounts.