GREENWICH REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT – APRIL 2015

GREENWICH REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT

APRIL 2015

by

Mark Pruner

Douglas Elliman – Greenwich

203-969-7900 – mark.pruner@elliman.com

  • Warm weather drive sales under $2M
  • Inventory finally rises to normal levels
  • Combat buying between $1 – 2M
  • Contracts pick up in $5 – 10M

 

April 2015 Shows Rebound from Hard Winter

Sales through the GMLS were up by 7 units from April 2014 and our contracts are up 10% from last April. We have 14 houses in contract between $5 and $10 million our best so far this year.

Warm weather in April also finally brought out the sellers with new listings. We were back to a normal amount of inventory by the end of the April when we had 521 single family homes on the market. New inventory is also coming on at a nice clip. Overall the market is looking promising for most price ranges and most areas of town.

Inventory 5/2/15 Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 3 2 2 4 9 11 1.3 1.5 1.5
$600-$800K 12 7 3 10 5 12 9.6 5.5 4.0
$800K-$1M 20 12 2 14 8 20 10.0 5.5 10.0
$1-$1.5M 40 27 4 31 25 52 6.4 4.2 10.0
$1.5-$2M 60 31 11 42 28 59 8.6 5.6 5.5
$2-$3M 91 24 10 34 29 53 12.6 9.4 9.1
$3-$4M 84 14 6 20 12 26 28.0 17.8 14.0
$4-$5M 57 8 3 11 6 14 38.0 22.4 19.0
$5-7.5M 83 9 2 11 8 17 41.5 26.9 41.5
$7.5-$10M 20 5 0 5 2 7 40.0 15.7
> $10M 51 0 0 0 2 2 102.0 140.3
TOTAL 521 139 43 182 134 273 15.6 10.5 12.1

 

We have 139 contracts outstanding so you would expect to see months of supply drop further in May as we have more houses go to contract and more closings happening. If we do see a drop in months of supply it will probably be small and might even be an increase as we see more delayed inventory coming online. Our over $10M market continues to be worrisome as we had no contracts and no sales in April reported by the GMLS. We did have one private sale for $19.9M and a land sale for $13M, but we have 51 houses in inventory over $10M

 

Overall Market More Active in April 2015 – Dividing Line is at $2 – 3 Million

The table below compares April 2015 to April 2014. For example in the top left corner our inventory under $600K is down 9 houses from our April 2014 inventory and has a red background. Those changes that are pro-seller; lower inventory, more sales are in red. The changes from April 2014 that are pro-buyer such as more inventory and fewer contracts are in blue.

4/15 vs. 4/14 Inventory Contracts Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Mo. Annlzd
< $600K -9 -2 0 -2 3 1 -6.39 -4.93 -4.50
$600-$800K -7 -4 -1 -5 -7 -11 3.49 1.07 -0.75
$800K-$1M -6 4 -1 3 0 4 -2.55 -3.21 1.33
$1-$1.5M -13 1 0 1 6 7 -4.37 -2.08 -3.25
$1.5-$2M 3 15 7 22 14 29 -7.1 -4.6 -8.80
$2-$3M -5 1 5 6 -1 0 0.20 -0.27 -10.10
$3-$4M 11 -3 0 -3 -8 -11 13.91 7.19 1.83
$4-$5M 20 -1 0 -1 -5 -6 25.02 12.48 6.67
$5-7.5M 8 6 2 8 3 9 16.40 -23.40 41.50
$7.5-$10M -8 3 -2 1 0 3 -14.04 -21.81 -14.00
> $10M 15 -6 -3 -9 -4 -10 78.84 124.17 -12.00
TOTAL 9 14 7 21 1 15 0.69 -0.14 -2.11
pro-buyer pro-seller

 

As you can see price ranges below $2 million have lots of red; inventory is down, sales are up and months of supply is down. It is a seller’s market below $2 million and particularly from $1 – 2 million. I’ve had two properties in this price range and in both cases we had an accepted offer in less than five days with back-up offers. For anyone in this price range (I’d be glad to send them my article on how to win in competitive bidding situations.)

Over $3 million the situation is pro-buyer. We have more inventory than last year and YTD solds are down. Part of the upper end is looking better as we have 9 more contracts between $5 and $10 million. These contracts results in big drops in our months of supply.

We’ve been waiting for this improvement all year. That price range is better, but we still have a ways to go. Even if you add in the contracts we have over a year’s supply between $7.5 and $10M and over two year’s supply between $5 and $7.5 million.

 

Months of Supply Shows Tight Market to $2M, Improving from $3 – 10M

11

If you look at the months of supply sales and contract bars (red bars) you can see that they are below the blue bars (only sales) in every price category indicating an improving market. Normally you don’t see this pattern until May and June as the rate of sales and contracts exceed the rate of new inventory coming on, but not this year. We are getting the inventory coming on, but we are also getting the contracts.

The white bars which are the April sales annualized show that April was a good month for sales from $1.5M to $5M. Above $5M we had contracts but the sales hadn’t started up yet. Over $10M months of supply is literally off the chart.

Good Inventory and Better Sales from $1 – $2 Million

To see just how competitive the $1 – $2 million market is stack the red bar (contracts) on top of the light blue bar (sales) and compare their combined height to the dark blue bar, inventory. If you do the same thing over $3 million you can see that we have a higher percentage of inventory and fewer sales and contracts. The nice thing is that the red bars (contracts) in these price ranges are all taller than the light blue bars (YTD sales) showing that this segment is improving.

 

22

Percentages & Pie Charts

Another way to look at the market is the size of the pie pieces. In 2015 they look much different than in prior years. If you look at the YTD Solds pie you can see how big the $1 – $3 million market is compared to the inventory. You can also see from the contract pie that it will continue strong.8884

Summary

April statistics is showing an accelerating market as inventory is up, but so are contracts. The additional contracts between $5 and 10 million are particularly significant as this has been a slow market. The one worrisome area is sales over $10M where we have had only 2 sales so far this year of GMLS listed properties and 3 private sales.

The market from $1 to $2 million is particularly strong as we are seeing not only young families moving from Manhattan to Greenwich, but also significant demand from downsizers from Westchester. Both groups are competing for the same houses. In addition this price range is a sweet spot for builders that are looking to spend $1 – 2 million for the land, build new and sell for $3 – $6 million.

After a weak beginning it looks like the market is coming back strongly.

 

 

 

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