What’s Hot in Greenwich, CT Houses – Quick Sales & Over List Price

So far this year we have had 483 sales on the Greenwich MLS and 68 of those houses sold  for original list price or higher. We also had 58 houses go to binding contract  in 30 days or less. Now as you might  expect a lot of those houses that sold in  less than 30 days also sold for list price  or higher so you can’t just add the two  numbers together. Once you dedupe  the combined list you come up with 91  single family homes that either went to  a binding contract in 30 or less or sold for list price or more this year. This is 19% of all our sales would be described as quick sales in a “hot” market and the market is actually better than that.

Greenwich Houses that Sold for List or Over List Price

Greenwich Houses that Sold for List or Over List Price

   To see why the market is hotter than that you need to look at each side of the hot market. The 68 sales at or above original list price are fairly straight forward. Did the property sell for what it was originally listed for or more? This means that the property was originally put on for what one or more buyers thought was fair market value.

If you have a competitive market in your area of town and price range, putting your property on for what you think is FMV is often the best way to get more than fair market value. Highly competitive buyers don’t want to lose and bid up a house to above what any of them might had paid if there wasn’t competition. Of the 68 houses that have been sold so far in 2016 for list or above, 13 of the houses sold for 105% or more of list price.

What is left out of these over-list sales are those sales where the price was subsequently lowered to fair market value and the sale then went for that price or more. There are 11 properties where once the house price was lowered to market value it went for list or over list price. The amazing thing about these 11 properties is that their median time on market was 9 months. While only these 11 went for list or above, as agents, we frequently see houses that sit with little showing activity even after a price reduction. Then when the price is reduced to what the buyers, who often have only seen pictures of the house on the internet, think  is enough there is a flurry of activity and often a quickly accepted offer.

Add in these 11 houses that got reduced to FMV and you now have 102 hot sales, but we are still leaving out a very large group of hot houses.

Greenwich, CT Houses that Went to Contract in 30 Days or Less

Greenwich, CT Houses that Went to Contract in 30 Days or Less

   Calculating just how many houses went to contract in 30 days or less is more complicated. We have 58 houses that went to binding contract in 30 days or less, but that number is deceptive as to just how hot the market is. The GMLS counts houses that are under a contingent contract as still active so the days on market continue to accumulate even though for other buyers these houses are effectively off the market.

The majority of our sales contracts  have a mortgage contingency. None of these contingent contracts are included in the 102 houses. (There is one small exception for contingent contracts that become binding in less than 30 days; e.g., where the buyer is pre-approved and only has to have an appraisal.) Without going through each sales history by hand you can’t tell which contracts went to contingent contract in less than 30 days, but a conservative guess would be at least another 30 contracts so now you are up to 132 hot houses in Greenwich or 27.3% of our sales.

The other thing about houses going to contract in less than 30 days is that they probably had an accepted offer a week or 10 days before, so these houses were really unencumbered for only three weeks or so. As you might expect for houses that went to pending contract in less than 30 days the majority or the majority also went for list or over list.

On the condo side the market is also competitive. Of the 148 sales of condos and co-ops that we have had this year 36, or 24% went for list or over or in less than 30 days.

Now you might think that it is only the lower end of the market where we see this kind of competitive market, but 30 of these sales were for more than $2M. These houses were spread throughout the areas of town where our more expensive properties are; Old Greenwich and Riverside south of the Metro-North tracks, shorefront, but also in in mid-country or backcountry. A good house, at a good price will sell anywhere in town.

For the under $1.3M market the hot areas are the R-7 zones in Old Greenwich and Riverside and all of Cos Cob. We do have a few hot sales in Glenville, but we are not seeing the competitive buying as much in Byram and Pemberwick.

What’s hot is price and condition. Over pricing a house, by even 10% can delay the sale and result in a lower price. An unhurried buyer makes lower offers. The other factor in the hot houses are fairly recent renovations with the majority having been renovated in the last 10 years.

If you are on the buy side and if you see a house that you like don’t wait to go see. It may be under contract next week.

 

Third Quarter Greenwich, CT Real Estate Statistics

Market is looking good all the way up to $3 million

September was our second consecutive good month for sales of single-family homes. So far we have had 56 sales in September and we’re still waiting for the reporting of probably 3 to 8 private sales. Once those sales come in we will probably match the 63 sales that we had in 2015; we are already well above the 40 sales that we had in September 2014.

Greenwich House Sales

The strong market under $2 million has continued all year and into September. This year we had 18 more sales than we did in September 2015. Over $3 million the high-end sales slump continues with seven fewer sales this September compared to last September. On the good news side, the $2 – 3 million portion of the market has strengthened nicely in the last two months. Our inventory for $2 – 3 million is down 15 houses and contracts are up 3 houses. As a result, our months of supply in that category are down by two months from 14 months to 12 months. So while it’s still very much of a buyers’ market the market is getting better.

Greenwich Sales Statistics September 2016

As of 9/30/16 Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts  YTD Solds  YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 8 0 2 2 13 13 5.5 6.5 4.0
$600-$800K 22 13 5 18 36 49 5.5 4.7 4.4
$800K-$1M 18 7 7 14 39 46 4.2 4.1 2.6
$1-$1.5M 58 11 12 23 95 106 5.5 5.7 4.8
$1.5-$2M 66 18 12 30 93 111 6.4 6.2 5.5
$2-$3M 114 14 7 21 87 101 11.8 11.9 16.3
$3-$4M 93 8 4 12 43 51 19.5 19.1 23.3
$4-$5M 61 4 2 6 23 27 23.9 23.7 30.5
$5-6.5M 60 1 3 4 15 16 36.0 39.4 20.0
$6.5-$10M 61 2 1 3 10 12 54.9 53.4 61.0
> $10M 44 0 1 1 4 4 99.0 115.5 44.0
TOTAL 605 78 56 134 458 536 11.9 11.9 10.8

 

We are also seeing the same pattern that we’ve seen the last two years with high-end sales coming on later in the year. Compared to earlier in the year September was a good month for high end sales. We had seven sales over $4 million and we have another seven contracts waiting to close at the high-end.

 

Greenwich Sales Sept. 2016 vs. Sept. 2015

9/16 vs 9/15 Inventory Contracts Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts  YTD Solds  YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 0 -4 2 -2 -1 -5 0.4 1.8
$600-$800K 0 8 -1 7 8 16 -1.6 -2.3 0.7
$800K-$1M 1 0 0 0 3 3 -0.1 0.0 0.1
$1-$1.5M 1 4 3 7 -3 1 0.3 0.0 -1.5
$1.5-$2M -16 7 4 11 1 8 -1.6 -2.1 -4.8
$2-$3M -15 3 0 3 3 6 -2.0 -2.4 -2.1
$3-$4M 7 2 -5 -3 -13 -11 5.6 4.6 13.7
$4-$5M 5 0 0 0 -1 -1 2.9 2.7 2.5
$5-10M 13 -5 -3 -8 -17 -22 34.8 36.0 51.3
> $10M -8 -1 1 0 -1 -2 5.4 24.5
TOTAL -12 14 1 15 -21 -7 0.3 -0.1 -0.4
  Pro-Seller changes Pro-Buyer changes

What was most unusual this year was that for once we had a good inventory under $1 million. That’s no longer the case, I’ve been working with a couple of people who really want to live in Greenwich but can’t find anything that works for them. Stamford has some pretty good deals in this price range and good schools and low property taxes only go so far, particularly if their children are going to private school.

Greenwich House Inventory and Sales

Now you would think with all the inventory that we have at the high-end that everyone could find what they want, but there has been a real sea change in what people are looking for in this price range. A classic example of a house that the owners did a great job of redoing for today’s market is 5 Lindsay Drive. It’s beautifully decorated and cool grays, white carpets even down to the master bath.  It will be interesting to see what happens to any of the really beautiful houses that we have that don’t fit what many of the US buyers in this category are looking for.

Greenwich Months of Supply

The great thing is that these houses sit on some beautiful pieces of property and the folks that can afford them, can also afford some pretty radical makeovers. These classic houses are also appealing to both European and Asian buyers so if the dollar drops a little this market may well pick up.

Inventory Sales and Contracts

 

 

 

 

Go Wild! – Mark Pruner & Bill Martin manning cornhole game for Greenwich Land Trust

Lizzie Lindstrom & Alexa Maddock, the chairs for Go Wild!, did an amazing job running the event this year. Not only are they very efficient, but they are very nice and sent out the email below. Douglas Elliman got credit as the event sponsor and there front and center in the photo montage are me and Bill Martin of DE’s NYC office ready to give advice on the ins and out of handling the beanbags for the cornhole and ring toss games.

If you have never been to this event you really should go. It’s a five ring circus. Check out all the photos courtesy of our co-sponsor, Serendipity magazine.

THANK YOU
for supporting Greenwich Land Trust and attending Go Wild!
It was the perfect autumn afternoon to come together as a community to enjoy some classic family fun and wide open space!
Special Thanks to our Event Sponsors
Your generous support of this annual event is vital to the mission of Greenwich Land Trust.
All proceeds from Go Wild! support Greenwich Land Trust’s work to preserve and protect open space and the nature of our community for this and future generations.
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