Greenwich FAR Hearing at P&Z
The FAR hearing at Greenwich’s Planning & Zoning was literally standing room only. One of our local online papers, that doesn’t get the attention that it deserves, the Greenwich Free Press had a good story about the hearing and quoted me.
| Inventory | 2015 Sales | Inventory | 2015 Sales | |||
| over $2M | over $5M | |||||
| Greenwich | 339 | 288 | 139 | 64 | ||
| Rest of Fairfield County | 447 | 316 | 65 | 16 | ||
| Rest of CT | 278 | 41 | 55 | 0 | ||
Next Tuesday, November 15th at 7 PM at Town Hall amendments to Planning and Zoning’s floor area ratio calculations are scheduled to be heard. Now this is an esoteric subject that normally only architects, builders and planning and zoning commission members are interested in, but the proposed changes will be very helpful for a lot of homeowners in Greenwich.
Greenwich adopted the floor area ratio in 1989 to make sure that huge houses weren’t built on tiny lots. As you can see each zone has its own ratio. For example, the R-20 zone has a minimum lot size of 20,000 sf which is .46 acres. The floor area ratio for that zone is .225 which means when you apply that to a 20,000 square-foot lot you can build a house of 4500 sf.
| Zone | Min Acres | Lot s.f. | FAR | Max Size |
| R-6 | 0.17 | 7,500 | 0.55 | 4,125 |
| R-7 | 0.17 | 7,500 | 0.35 | 2,625 |
| R-12 | 0.28 | 12,000 | 0.315 | 3,780 |
| R-20 | 0.46 | 20,000 | 0.225 | 4,500 |
| RA-1 | 1 | 43,560 | 0.135 | 5,881 |
| RA-2 | 2 | 87,120 | 0.09 | 7,841 |
| RA-4 | 4 | 174,240 | 0.0625 | 10,890 |
Now that concept seems fairly simple and straightforward. However, since 1989 a combination of creative architects and interpretations and amendments by planning and zoning have led to a very complex set of interpretations and some unforeseen consequences when the regs were originally passed.
Two of the principal issues that are being addressed in the public hearing are attics and basements. The concept is that if the space is underground or if the attic is unfinished then the space doesn’t count as floor area for the calculation. During the early digits many architects were pushing houses to the absolute limit and came up with ways to get additional square footage that wouldn’t be counted on the floor area ratio.
Basements were always problematic as Greenwich has a lot of hills. What might be a basement from the front of the house might be the first floor from the back of the house the so-called walkout basement. If it was a walkout basement, then it was counted in the floor area calculation. You could have two identical houses with significantly different floor areas. The house on the hill had three floors counted for square footage whereas the identical house next-door that was on a flat lot only had the two floors above ground counted. (This a principal reason why you should always take the square footage from the tax card with a grain of salt. It may or may not include the basement and “attic” space.)
One option that was initially within the regs was to build up the lot so that the ground level, the grade plane, put the lowest level underground hence was not counted in the FAR. This strategy is called wedding caking since there may be several tiers created from the property edge to the house.
To combat this tactic new regulations were adopted. The Greenwich Association of Realtors is proposing rationalizing these rules so that you could have 5 feet of basement showing and still be excluded from the FAR.
With attics, there was a different issue. Homeowners and builders would get a C.O. for the property with a square footage on the living floors that was very close to the absolute maximum allowed for that zone. The attic would be left unfinished and hence wouldn’t be counted in the FAR. Some people would subsequently finish off the attic with additional living space so that the house now exceeded the floor area ratio. To combat this after-the-fact, and unauthorized expansion, planning and zoning required that trusses be interlaced in the attic leaving a rat’s nest of wooden beams that made it impossibly difficult to use the attic even for storage.
The GA R is rightly concerned that these areas are fire house hazards and very difficult to move around in to fight a fire. However, to me the real issue is that the use of someone’s attic should be irrelevant if no one from the outside can see inside the attic. Why should we be controlling what people can do with their private homes when it has no effect on the neighborhood.
The overall problem however and these rules just highlight two of the poster children for this are that we now have layer upon layer regulations to control development.
| Zone | GAR | Lot Coverage | Lot Cov. SF | Lot Cov. Ac. |
| R-6 | 35% | 65% | 4,875 | 0.11 |
| R-7 | 50% | 50% | 3,750 | 0.09 |
| R-12 | 55% | 45% | 5,400 | 0.12 |
| R-20 | 62% | 38% | 7,600 | 0.17 |
| RA-1 | 72% | 28% | 12,197 | 0.28 |
| RA-2 | 78% | 22% | 19,166 | 0.44 |
| RA-4 | 84% | 16% | 27,878 |
0.64 |
The latest one was the green area requirement which even if your house is conforming can prevent you from using the outside space. The ratios for the green area requirement vary from a 35% green area required in the smallest zone to 84% of the lot having to be left with natural surfaces in the four-acre zone. This means that only 16% of the lot can be covered in the 4-acre zone or only 0.64 acres of the 4 acres.
In addition to these regulations that touch every homeowner, we have flood plain regulations, we have a new drainage manual that substantially restricts lot use and can raise the cost of the development. These new regulations are in addition to setback and height limitations, house location regulations and lot frontage regulations.
Now some people think that real estate agents are pro-development and some even believe that we’d like to see all regulations eliminated. I don’t know any agents that believe that. Much of the what makes Greenwich houses so valuable is the protection of adjacent properties that these regulations provide. So there need to be controls. However, I know many agents and homeowners who have had to deal with our land use agencies who believe the regulations need an overhaul to be made simpler and less expensive to comply with. This proposal is a start.
There are a total of 86 Open Houses on Sunday. Prices range from a rental at $3,675 to a sale at $9,150,000.
I’m having an open house at 2 Boxwood today from 1 – 4 pm. Please stop by, it is a great value in central Greenwich.
Click here for the interactive map to plan your route.
The number of homes in each price range is as follows:
Rentals: 8 Homes
Under $1,000,000: 14 Homes
From $1,000,000 to $2,000,000: 28 Homes
From $2,000,000 to $3,000,000: 28 Homes
Above $3,000,000: 21 Homes
| Address | Town | Price | Time |
| 1382 E Putnam Avenue #1 | Old Greenwich | $3,800 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 1382 E Putnam Avenue #2 | Old Greenwich | $3,800 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 1382 E Putnam Avenue #4 | Old Greenwich | $3,800 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 20 Mohawk Lane | Greenwich | $12,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 14 Hollow Wood Lane #D | Greenwich | $449,000 | sun 12-2 PM |
| 75 Cos Cob Avenue #13 | Cos Cob | $499,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 245 Byram Road | Greenwich | $549,500 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 100 Strickland Road #1 | Cos Cob | $550,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 333 Palmer Hill Road #2 E | Riverside | $658,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 71 Richland Road #A | Greenwich | $699,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 4 Ocean View Avenue | Greenwich | $699,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 83 View Street West | Greenwich | $799,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 15 Concord Street | Greenwich | $799,500 | Sun 12-4 PM |
| 6 Buena Vista Drive | Greenwich | $895,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 49 Indian Harbor Drive #6 | Greenwich | $929,500 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 40 Cassidy Street | Greenwich | $995,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 48 Spring Street #5 | Greenwich | $995,900 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 7 Caroline Place | Greenwich | $1,075,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 5 Macarthur Drive | Old Greenwich | $1,100,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 304 Orchard Street | Greenwich | $1,125,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 7a Fletcher Avenue | Greenwich | $1,175,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 25 Halsey Drive | Old Greenwich | $1,285,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 101 Lewis Street #M | Greenwich | $1,299,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 85 Bowman Drive | Greenwich | $1,325,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 10 Elm Street | Cos Cob | $1,395,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 28 N Georgetowne North #28 | Greenwich | $1,395,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 79 Tomac Avenue | Old Greenwich | $1,395,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 12 Birdsong Place | Riverside | $1,495,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 144 Cat Rock Road | Cos Cob | $1,495,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 2 Boxwood Lane | Greenwich | $1,500,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 56 Riverside Avenue | Riverside | $1,685,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 84 Perkins Road | Greenwich | $1,690,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 2 Tower Lane | Old Greenwich | $1,695,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 73 Pemberwick Road | Greenwich | $1,800,000 | sun 12-2 PM |
| 24 Londonderry Drive | Greenwich | $1,850,000 | sun 12-2 PM |
| 86 Cutler Road | Greenwich | $1,900,000 | sun 12-2 PM |
| 7 Tinker Lane | Greenwich | $1,925,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 311 Cognewaugh Road | Cos Cob | $1,950,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 140 Park Avenue | Greenwich | $1,975,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 10 Sweet Briar Lane | Cos Cob | $1,995,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 10 Sweet Briar Lane | Cos Cob | $1,995,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 185 N Maple Avenue | Greenwich | $1,995,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 10 Ridge Street #5 | Greenwich | $2,000,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 7 Indian Head Road | Riverside | $2,095,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 7 Indian Head Road | Riverside | $2,095,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 116 Pecksland Road | Greenwich | $2,100,000 | sun 12-2 PM |
| 6 Maher Avenue | Greenwich | $2,150,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 70 Summit Road | Riverside | $2,218,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 10 Mackenzie Glen | Greenwich | $2,295,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 400 Sound Beach Avenue | Old Greenwich | $2,295,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 7 Willowmere Avenue | Riverside | $2,495,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 11 Red Coat Lane | Greenwich | $2,495,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 10 Edgewood Drive #1 B | Greenwich | $2,499,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 644 Lake Avenue | Greenwich | $2,545,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 644 Lake Avenue | Greenwich | $2,545,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 17 Winterset Road | Greenwich | $2,550,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 152 Milbank Avenue #3 | Greenwich | $2,650,000 | Sun 12-4 PM |
| 69 Circle Drive | Greenwich | $2,669,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 1 Kernan Place | Old Greenwich | $2,675,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 20 Mohawk Lane | Greenwich | $2,700,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 152 Milbank Avenue #2 | Greenwich | $2,795,000 | Sun 12-4 PM |
| 7 E Point Lane | Old Greenwich | $2,850,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 152 Milbank Avenue #4 | Greenwich | $2,875,000 | Sun 12-4 PM |
| 152 Milbank Avenue #1 | Greenwich | $2,975,000 | Sun 12-4 PM |
| 474 North Street | Greenwich | $2,995,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 37 Ballwood Road | Old Greenwich | $2,999,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 34 Miltiades Avenue | Riverside | $3,175,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 323 Cognewaugh Road | Cos Cob | $3,295,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 9 Game Cock Road | Greenwich | $3,399,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 14 Sherwood Farm Lane | Greenwich | $3,495,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 22 Widgeon Way | Greenwich | $3,500,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 340 Old Church Road | Greenwich | $3,795,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 3 Gisborne Place | Old Greenwich | $3,849,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 15 Wyckham Hill Lane | Greenwich | $3,895,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 12 Ridgebrook Road | Greenwich | $3,975,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 82 Cat Rock Road | Cos Cob | $3,995,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 42 Lower Cross Road | Greenwich | $5,195,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 291 Stanwich Road | Greenwich | $5,495,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 35 West Way | Old Greenwich | $5,495,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 198 Shore Road | Old Greenwich | $5,495,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 49 Byfield Lane | Greenwich | $5,895,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 23 Cliffdale Road | Greenwich | $5,895,000 | sun 12-2 PM |
| 38 Dairy Road | Greenwich | $5,999,999 | Sun 12-3 PM |
| 72 Meadow Road | Riverside | $6,450,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 38 Parsonage Road | Greenwich | $9,150,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
There are a total of 82 Open Houses with 9 on Saturday and 73 on Sunday. Prices range from a rental at $2,700 to a sale at $8,995,000. Click here for the interactive map to plan your route.
Greenwich Open Houses for Nov. 5 and Nov. 6th
The number of homes in each price range is as follows:
Rentals: 11 Homes
Under $1,000,000: 12 Homes
From $1,000,000 to $2,000,000: 17 Homes
From $2,000,000 to $3,000,000: 20 Homes
Above $3,000,000: 22 Homes
[This week we’re also making some changes. The links in the list below now link to my firm, Douglas Elliman’s website. It was surprisingly complex to get the spreadsheet to handle GMLS, CMLS and none MLS numbers. Please let me know if you see any issues with the links.
Also as you may have noticed more agents are holding open houses on Saturday and I’ll try to get the open house list out before these Saturday open houses. (Client will still have to come first though. 🙂
Lastly if you are a subscriber to my open house email list in the .sig file at the bottom you’ll see GreenwichStreets.com links to a variety useful articles and the latest market report. So you don’t need to look them up. Please send any comments, suggestions or error reports to mark.pruner@elliman.com. Thanks to all the subscribers and to Pam Toner and Rob Pulitano, my fellow OH Listers. MP.]
| Address | Town | Price | Time |
| 255 Weaver Street 10h | Greenwich | $3,675 | Sat 1-3 PM |
| 45 Riverside Avenue | Riverside | $949,900 | Sat 12-2 PM |
| 12 Georgetowne North | Greenwich | $1,250,000 | Sat 12-3 PM |
| 300 Stanwich Road | Greenwich | $1,995,000 | Sat 1-3 PM |
| 718 North Street | Greenwich | $2,750,000 | Sat 12-4 PM |
| 151 Milbank Avenue #4 | Greenwich | $2,875,000 | Sat 12-5 PM |
| 138 Havemeyer Place | Greenwich | $3,995,000 | Sat 3-5 PM |
| 85 Indian Head Road | Riverside | $7,495,000 | Sat 12-3 PM |
| 11 Cove Road | Old Greenwich | $8,995,000 | Sat 1:30-4:30 PM |
| Address | Town | Price | Time |
| 60 Oak Ridge Street 1 | Greenwich | $2,700 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 60 Oak Ridge Street 2 | Greenwich | $3,600 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 79 Josephine Evaristo Avenue | Greenwich | $4,900 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 45 William Street A | Greenwich | $6,500 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 63 Sherwood Place | Greenwich | $10,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 10 Edgewood Drive 3 B | Greenwich | $10,500 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 61 Winding Lane | Greenwich | $13,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 303 Milbank Avenue | Greenwich | $19,995 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 43 Burning Tree Road | Greenwich | $21,500 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 18 Pinecroft Road | Greenwich | $25,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 53 Putnam Park 53 | Greenwich | $425,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 47 Lafayette Place 2g | Greenwich | $435,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 103 Putnam Park | Greenwich | $547,500 | Sun 12-2 PM |
| 245 Byram Road | Greenwich | $549,500 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 302 River West | Greenwich | $730,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 30 W William Street | Greenwich | $750,000 | Sun 11-1 PM |
| 18 Stone Avenue 5 | Greenwich | $795,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 83 View Street West | Greenwich | $799,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 61 Orchard Street | Cos Cob | $865,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 79 Josephine Evaristo Avenue | Greenwich | $895,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 45 Riverside Avenue | Riverside | $949,900 | Sun 12-2 PM |
| 5 Macarthur Drive | Old Greenwich | $1,100,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 7a Fletcher Avenue | Greenwich | $1,175,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 61 Orchard Place A | Greenwich | $1,295,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 85 Bowman Drive | Greenwich | $1,325,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 19 Mallard Drive | Greenwich | $1,350,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 45 William Street A | Greenwich | $1,375,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 18 Ferncliff Road | Cos Cob | $1,595,000 | Sun 12:30-2 PM |
| 93 Valleywood Road | Cos Cob | $1,650,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 9 Shore Road | Old Greenwich | $1,725,000 | Sun 12-3 PM |
| 55 Sawmill Lane | Greenwich | $1,795,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 73 Pemberwick Road | Greenwich | $1,800,000 | Sun 12-2 PM |
| 570 North Street | Greenwich | $1,900,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 22 Lincoln Avenue | Greenwich | $1,995,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 16 Hope Farm Road | Greenwich | $1,995,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 24 Juniper Lane | Riverside | $1,995,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 36 Burning Tree Road | Greenwich | $2,050,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 116 Pecksland Road | Greenwich | $2,100,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 65 Sherwood Place | Greenwich | $2,150,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 6 Maher Avenue | Greenwich | $2,150,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 99 Sterling Road | Greenwich | $2,250,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 63 Sherwood Place | Greenwich | $2,250,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 37 Crescent Road | Riverside | $2,295,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 25 Heusted Drive | Old Greenwich | $2,395,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 55 Burning Tree Road | Greenwich | $2,395,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 22 Echo Lane | Greenwich | $2,450,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 44 Wesskum Wood Road | Riverside | $2,475,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 17 Winterset Road | Greenwich | $2,550,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 10 Edgewood Drive 3 B | Greenwich | $2,595,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 5 Maher Avenue | Greenwich | $2,600,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 69 Circle Drive | Greenwich | $2,669,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 80 Glenville Road | Greenwich | $2,850,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 75 Dearfield Drive | Greenwich | $2,875,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 11 Palmer Lane | Riverside | $2,895,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 27 Mooreland Road | Greenwich | $3,195,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 100 Brookside Drive | Greenwich | $3,495,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 15 Cottontail Road | Cos Cob | $3,495,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 14 Sherwood Farm Lane | Greenwich | $3,495,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 43 Grahampton Lane | Greenwich | $3,500,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 3 Gisborne Place | Old Greenwich | $3,849,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 30 Brookridge Drive | Greenwich | $3,900,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 12 Ridgebrook Road | Greenwich | $3,975,000 | Sun 12-2 PM |
| 106 Lockwood Road | Riverside | $3,985,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 61 Winding Lane | Greenwich | $3,995,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 1 Ashton Drive | Greenwich | $4,290,000 | Sun 2-4 PM |
| 43 Burning Tree Road | Greenwich | $4,990,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 14 Hycliff Road | Greenwich | $4,995,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 636 Riversville Road | Greenwich | $4,995,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 291 Stanwich Road | Greenwich | $5,495,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 18 Pinecroft Road | Greenwich | $5,500,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 16 Boulder Brook Road | Greenwich | $5,795,000 | Sun 1-3 PM |
| 303 Milbank Avenue | Greenwich | $5,949,000 | Sun 1-4 PM |
| 38 Dairy Road | Greenwich | $5,999,999 | Sun 12-3 PM |
After two good months, October 2016 was back to average or at least the ten-year average number of sales in what is the strangest election year I’ve ever seen. Strange and uncertain does not make for a good real estate market. With the polling results tightening the outcome of the election is even more uncertain and this tightening hasn’t been good for a sales in October. In the last week we have had 12 sales, not bad for early November, but only one of the twelve sales was over $3 million, where we have more than half of our listings.
Once our private sales are added in we will probably be a little above our ten-year average of 41 October sales, but that after two good months for sales in August and September this year. October was not a bad month; it was just average.
Now in talking to Realtors the message is mixed. As Tuck Keating in our office said, “There’s a lot of activity, but not a lot of urgency.” November, along with February, is usually one of two slow months each year, but once the uncertainty of the election is over, I expect that we will actually have a pretty good November potentially even better than our October sales. Our sales also generally have an upturn in December as people do yearend deals and this year it all depends on Washington and to lesser, but significant extent, what the news is from Hartford.
The October sales that we did have are indicative of our two-part market. We only had three sales over $4 million and no sales over $10 million in October. On the contract side things are looking a little better. We have five contracts between $4 and $5 million and six contracts between $3 and $4 million. Unfortunately, over $5 million we only have one contract waiting to close and 167 houses in inventory.
| As of 11/1/16 | Inventory | Contracts | Last Mo. Solds | Tot. Solds+ Contracts | YTD Solds | YTD+ Contracts | Mos Supply | Mos w/ Contracts | Last Mo. Annlzd |
| < $600K | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 6.9 | 6.5 | #DIV/0! |
| $600-$800K | 13 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 45 | 53 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| $800K-$1M | 22 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 47 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| $1-$1.5M | 60 | 16 | 5 | 21 | 100 | 116 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 12.0 |
| $1.5-$2M | 68 | 14 | 8 | 22 | 101 | 115 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 8.5 |
| $2-$3M | 107 | 13 | 5 | 18 | 92 | 105 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 21.4 |
| $3-$4M | 88 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 54 | 18.3 | 18.7 | 17.6 |
| $4-$5M | 57 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 29 | 23.8 | 22.6 | 57.0 |
| $5-6.5M | 60 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 37.5 | 43.1 | 60.0 |
| $6.5-$10M | 60 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 54.5 | 57.5 | 60.0 |
| > $10M | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 117.5 | 135.1 | #DIV/0! |
| TOTAL | 591 | 70 | 38 | 108 | 497 | 567 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 15.6 |
Under $2 million our sales had recently been exceeding 2015, but when you look at a spreadsheet of how sales this October compared to October 2015 the reduced sales in October 2016 mean that we’re not as far ahead as we were before. Our biggest increase this year is from $600,000 to $800,000 where we are up 14 sales from 34 to 45 sales. Over $3 million we are down 38 sales from last year. On the good side as I said, we do have seven contracts waiting to close between $3 and $5 million.
| Oct. 16 vs. Oct. 15 | Inventory | Contracts | Mo. Solds | Tot. Solds+ Contracts | YTD Solds | YTD+ Contracts | Mos Supply | Mos w/ Contracts | Mo. Annlzd |
| < $600K | 1 | -2 | -3 | -5 | -4 | -6 | 2.2 | 2.3 | – |
| $600-$800K | -8 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 17 | -3.9 | -3.9 | -5.4 |
| $800K-$1M | 4 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.5 |
| $1-$1.5M | 9 | 3 | -1 | 2 | -4 | -1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 3.5 |
| $1.5-$2M | -6 | -1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -6.3 |
| $2-$3M | -13 | -1 | -3 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -1.4 | -1.3 | 6.4 |
| $3-$4M | 1 | 4 | -2 | 2 | -15 | -11 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 5.2 |
| $4-$5M | 1 | 3 | -4 | -1 | -5 | -2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 45.8 |
| $5-10M | 10 | -9 | 0 | -9 | -17 | -26 | 33.4 | 47.9 | 10.0 |
| > $10M | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -2 | 23.5 | 45.0 | – |
| TOTAL | -1 | -2 | -4 | -6 | -24 | -26 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
When you look at the actual sales compared to our inventory you can see how strong the market has been all the way up to $2 million. We’re also seeing strengthening from $2 to $3 million, as we have 13 contracts waiting to close in that price range
Our months of supply also are indicative of this strength as we are under six months supply all the way up to $2 million; a seller’s market. Now that we are in November I think you’re going to start seeing high-end properties being taken off the market at a more rapid rate than usual. The result is that months of supply may drop even if sales don’t change that much. As reported last week there have been lots of hot sales in Greenwich this year.
Good properties, that are well priced are coming on and going off the market in less than a month and often for full list price or even over list price. The second half of November has traditionally been slow as people gear up for the Thanksgiving holiday, but this year may be an exception as once the election uncertainty is removed people who have been waiting may start signing contracts. If sales do pick up after the election you can expect to see some spirited bidding wars.
At the high-end we’ve seen some properties with significant price reductions and this is putting pressure on the relatively small number of high-end owners that either must sell or really want to sell this year. As these prices are lowered into the next high-end price bracket down sellers in that bracket come under more price pressure, the “cramdown” effect. The result of this is that at the higher end, prices will most likely will continue to come down as those people need to sell and some will price their houses to today’s demand level. Others will just sit tight and weather the market head winds. But don’t discount a black swan event (or more likely a small grey swan event). We don’t need a lot of sales for our high end market to rebound. A handful of sales above $5 million, and in the best of all worlds a dozen or two sales, would drastically change the feeling of this market.
I’m away for my 30th anniversary next week so I stopped by the Town Clerk’s office and voting took less than 5 minutes. Even if you can’t be here it’s easy to vote and here the polls are open from 6 am to 8pm. Your vote will help make the housing market a more certain place.
