Some Facts About the Greenwich Real Estate Market

  1. Greenwich vs. Fairfield County vs. the Rest of Connecticut
    Inventory 2015 Sales Inventory 2015 Sales
  over $2M   over $5M  
Greenwich 339 288 139 64
Rest of Fairfield County 447 316 65 16
Rest of CT   278 41   55 0

 

  1. What’s Been Happening This Year
    • The Median House – 4BR, 3/1BA, 3,173 sf, 0.41 acres
    • Sales under $3M – 394 sales vs 380 sales in 2015 up 4%
    • Sales Over $3M – 103 sales vs 141 sales in 2015 down 24%
    • Total Sales – 497 houses vs 521 houses in 2015 down 5%
    • Average Price – Most dependent on sales mix
    • Inventory is the same as last year – 591vs 592 house listings in 2015
    • Average Price – $2.22 million vs $2.5 million in 2015
    • Median Price – $1.70 million vs. $1.87 million in 2015
    • Total Sales to Date – $1.1 billion vs $1.3 billion in 2015
    • Median Price per Square Foot – $542 vs $565 in 2015
    • Median Sales Price to Last List Price Ratio – 92.0% vs 94% in 2015
    • Median Days on Market – 126 vs 102 in 2015

Greenwich Planning & Zoning Hearing on FAR (Floor Area Ratio)

Next Tuesday, November 15th at 7 PM at Town Hall amendments to Planning and Zoning’s floor area ratio calculations are scheduled to be heard. Now this is an esoteric subject that normally only architects, builders and planning and zoning commission members are interested in, but the proposed changes will be very helpful for a lot of homeowners in Greenwich.

Greenwich adopted the floor area ratio in 1989 to make sure that huge houses weren’t built on tiny lots. As you can see each zone has its own ratio. For example, the R-20 zone has a minimum lot size of 20,000 sf which is .46 acres. The floor area ratio for that zone is .225 which means when you apply that to a 20,000 square-foot lot you can build a house of 4500 sf.

Zone Min Acres Lot s.f. FAR Max Size
R-6 0.17 7,500 0.55 4,125
R-7 0.17 7,500 0.35 2,625
R-12 0.28 12,000 0.315 3,780
R-20 0.46 20,000 0.225 4,500
RA-1 1 43,560 0.135 5,881
RA-2 2 87,120 0.09 7,841
RA-4 4 174,240 0.0625 10,890

 

Now that concept seems fairly simple and straightforward. However, since 1989 a combination of creative architects and interpretations and amendments by planning and zoning have led to a very complex set of interpretations and some unforeseen consequences when the regs were originally passed.

Two of the principal issues that are being addressed in the public hearing are attics and basements. The concept is that if the space is underground or if the attic is unfinished then the space doesn’t count as floor area for the calculation. During the early digits many architects were pushing houses to the absolute limit and came up with ways to get additional square footage that wouldn’t be counted on the floor area ratio.

Basements were always problematic as Greenwich has a lot of hills. What might be a basement from the front of the house might be the first floor from the back of the house the so-called walkout basement. If it was a walkout basement, then it was counted in the floor area calculation. You could have two identical houses with significantly different floor areas. The house on the hill had three floors counted for square footage whereas the identical house next-door that was on a flat lot only had the two floors above ground counted. (This a principal reason why you should always take the square footage from the tax card with a grain of salt. It may or may not include the basement and “attic” space.)

One option that was initially within the regs was to build up the lot so that the ground level, the grade plane, put the lowest level underground  hence was not counted in the FAR.  This strategy is called wedding caking since there may be several tiers created from the property edge to the house.

To combat this tactic new regulations were adopted. The Greenwich Association of Realtors is proposing rationalizing these rules so that you could have 5 feet of basement showing and still be excluded from the FAR.

With attics, there was a different issue. Homeowners and builders would get a C.O. for the property with a square footage on the living floors that was very close to the absolute maximum allowed for that zone. The attic would be left unfinished and hence wouldn’t be counted in the FAR. Some people would subsequently finish off the attic with additional living space so that the house now exceeded the floor area ratio. To combat this after-the-fact, and unauthorized expansion, planning and zoning required that trusses be interlaced in the attic leaving a rat’s nest of wooden beams that made it impossibly difficult to use the attic even for storage.

The GA R is rightly concerned that these areas are fire house hazards and very difficult to move around in to fight a fire. However, to me the real issue is that the use of someone’s attic should be irrelevant if no one from the outside can see inside the attic. Why should we be controlling what people can do with their private homes when it has no effect on the neighborhood.

The overall problem however and these rules just highlight two of the poster children for this are that we now have layer upon layer regulations to control development.

Zone GAR Lot Coverage Lot Cov. SF Lot Cov. Ac.
R-6 35% 65% 4,875 0.11
R-7 50% 50% 3,750 0.09
R-12 55% 45% 5,400 0.12
R-20 62% 38% 7,600 0.17
RA-1 72% 28% 12,197 0.28
RA-2 78% 22% 19,166 0.44
RA-4 84% 16% 27,878

0.64

 

The latest one was the green area requirement which even if your house is conforming can prevent you from using the outside space. The ratios for the green area requirement vary from a 35% green area required in the smallest zone to 84% of the lot having to be left with natural surfaces in the four-acre zone. This means that only 16% of the lot can be covered in the 4-acre zone or only 0.64 acres of the 4 acres.

In addition to these regulations that touch every homeowner, we have flood plain regulations, we have a new drainage manual that substantially restricts lot use and can raise the cost of the development. These new regulations are in addition to setback and height limitations, house location regulations and lot frontage regulations.

Now some people think that real estate agents are pro-development and some even believe that we’d like to see all regulations eliminated. I don’t know any agents that believe that. Much of the what makes Greenwich houses so valuable is the protection of adjacent properties that these regulations provide. So there need to be controls. However, I know many agents and homeowners who have had to deal with our land use agencies who believe the regulations need an overhaul to be made simpler and less expensive to comply with. This proposal is a start.

 

Open Houses in Greenwich, CT for Sunday November 13, 2016

There are a total of 86 Open Houses on Sunday. Prices range from a rental at $3,675 to a sale at $9,150,000.

I’m having an open house at 2 Boxwood today from 1 – 4 pm. Please stop by, it is a great value in central Greenwich.

greenwich-open-houses-2016-11-13

Click here for  the interactive map to plan your route. 

The number of homes in each price range is as follows:

Rentals: 8 Homes

Under $1,000,000: 14 Homes

From $1,000,000 to $2,000,000: 28 Homes

From $2,000,000 to $3,000,000: 28 Homes

Above $3,000,000: 21 Homes

 

Address Town Price Time
1382 E Putnam Avenue  #1 Old Greenwich $3,800 Sun 2-4 PM
1382 E Putnam Avenue  #2 Old Greenwich $3,800 Sun 2-4 PM
1382 E Putnam Avenue  #4 Old Greenwich $3,800 Sun 2-4 PM
20 Mohawk Lane Greenwich $12,000 Sun 1-3 PM
14 Hollow Wood Lane  #D Greenwich $449,000 sun 12-2 PM
75 Cos Cob Avenue  #13 Cos Cob $499,000 Sun 2-4 PM
245 Byram Road Greenwich $549,500 Sun 1-3 PM
100 Strickland Road  #1 Cos Cob $550,000 Sun 1-3 PM
333 Palmer Hill Road  #2 E Riverside $658,000 Sun 1-3 PM
71 Richland Road  #A Greenwich $699,000 Sun 1-3 PM
4 Ocean View Avenue Greenwich $699,000 Sun 1-3 PM
83 View Street West Greenwich $799,000 Sun 1-3 PM
15 Concord Street Greenwich $799,500 Sun 12-4 PM
6 Buena Vista Drive Greenwich $895,000 Sun 1-3 PM
49 Indian Harbor Drive  #6 Greenwich $929,500 Sun 1-3 PM
40 Cassidy Street Greenwich $995,000 Sun 1-3 PM
48 Spring Street  #5 Greenwich $995,900 Sun 1-3 PM
7 Caroline Place Greenwich $1,075,000 Sun 2-4 PM
5 Macarthur Drive Old Greenwich $1,100,000 Sun 1-3 PM
304 Orchard Street Greenwich $1,125,000 Sun 1-3 PM
7a Fletcher Avenue Greenwich $1,175,000 Sun 1-3 PM
25 Halsey Drive Old Greenwich $1,285,000 Sun 1-3 PM
101 Lewis Street  #M Greenwich $1,299,000 Sun 1-3 PM
85 Bowman Drive Greenwich $1,325,000 Sun 1-4 PM
10 Elm Street Cos Cob $1,395,000 Sun 1-3 PM
28 N Georgetowne North  #28 Greenwich $1,395,000 Sun 1-4 PM
79 Tomac Avenue Old Greenwich $1,395,000 Sun 2-4 PM
12 Birdsong Place Riverside $1,495,000 Sun 1-3 PM
144 Cat Rock Road Cos Cob $1,495,000 Sun 1-3 PM
2 Boxwood Lane Greenwich $1,500,000 Sun 1-4 PM
56 Riverside Avenue Riverside $1,685,000 Sun 1-4 PM
84 Perkins Road Greenwich $1,690,000 Sun 1-3 PM
2 Tower Lane Old Greenwich $1,695,000 Sun 1-3 PM
73 Pemberwick Road Greenwich $1,800,000 sun 12-2 PM
24 Londonderry Drive Greenwich $1,850,000 sun 12-2 PM
86 Cutler Road Greenwich $1,900,000 sun 12-2 PM
7 Tinker Lane Greenwich $1,925,000 Sun 1-4 PM
311 Cognewaugh Road Cos Cob $1,950,000 Sun 1-3 PM
140 Park Avenue Greenwich $1,975,000 Sun 1-3 PM
10 Sweet Briar Lane Cos Cob $1,995,000 Sun 1-3 PM
10 Sweet Briar Lane Cos Cob $1,995,000 Sun 1-3 PM
185 N Maple Avenue Greenwich $1,995,000 Sun 2-4 PM
10 Ridge Street  #5 Greenwich $2,000,000 Sun 2-4 PM
7 Indian Head Road Riverside $2,095,000 Sun 2-4 PM
7 Indian Head Road Riverside $2,095,000 Sun 2-4 PM
116 Pecksland Road Greenwich $2,100,000 sun 12-2 PM
6 Maher Avenue Greenwich $2,150,000 Sun 1-4 PM
70 Summit Road Riverside $2,218,000 Sun 1-4 PM
10 Mackenzie Glen Greenwich $2,295,000 Sun 1-3 PM
400 Sound Beach Avenue Old Greenwich $2,295,000 Sun 2-4 PM
7 Willowmere Avenue Riverside $2,495,000 Sun 1-3 PM
11 Red Coat Lane Greenwich $2,495,000 Sun 1-3 PM
10 Edgewood Drive  #1 B Greenwich $2,499,000 Sun 1-3 PM
644 Lake Avenue Greenwich $2,545,000 Sun 2-4 PM
644 Lake Avenue Greenwich $2,545,000 Sun 2-4 PM
17 Winterset Road Greenwich $2,550,000 Sun 2-4 PM
152 Milbank Avenue  #3 Greenwich $2,650,000 Sun 12-4 PM
69 Circle Drive Greenwich $2,669,000 Sun 1-3 PM
1 Kernan Place Old Greenwich $2,675,000 Sun 2-4 PM
20 Mohawk Lane Greenwich $2,700,000 Sun 1-3 PM
152 Milbank Avenue  #2 Greenwich $2,795,000 Sun 12-4 PM
7 E Point Lane Old Greenwich $2,850,000 Sun 1-4 PM
152 Milbank Avenue  #4 Greenwich $2,875,000 Sun 12-4 PM
152 Milbank Avenue  #1 Greenwich $2,975,000 Sun 12-4 PM
474 North Street Greenwich $2,995,000 Sun 1-3 PM
37 Ballwood Road Old Greenwich $2,999,000 Sun 1-3 PM
34 Miltiades Avenue Riverside $3,175,000 Sun 1-3 PM
323 Cognewaugh Road Cos Cob $3,295,000 Sun 1-3 PM
9 Game Cock Road Greenwich $3,399,000 Sun 1-3 PM
14 Sherwood Farm Lane Greenwich $3,495,000 Sun 1-4 PM
22 Widgeon Way Greenwich $3,500,000 Sun 1-3 PM
340 Old Church Road Greenwich $3,795,000 Sun 1-3 PM
3 Gisborne Place Old Greenwich $3,849,000 Sun 1-3 PM
15 Wyckham Hill Lane Greenwich $3,895,000 Sun 1-4 PM
12 Ridgebrook Road Greenwich $3,975,000 Sun 1-3 PM
82 Cat Rock Road Cos Cob $3,995,000 Sun 1-4 PM
42 Lower Cross Road Greenwich $5,195,000 Sun 1-4 PM
291 Stanwich Road Greenwich $5,495,000 Sun 1-3 PM
35 West Way Old Greenwich $5,495,000 Sun 1-4 PM
198 Shore Road Old Greenwich $5,495,000 Sun 1-4 PM
49 Byfield Lane Greenwich $5,895,000 Sun 1-4 PM
23 Cliffdale Road Greenwich $5,895,000 sun 12-2 PM
38 Dairy Road Greenwich $5,999,999 Sun 12-3 PM
72 Meadow Road Riverside $6,450,000 Sun 1-4 PM
38 Parsonage Road Greenwich $9,150,000 Sun 1-3 PM

 

 

Greenwich Weekend Open Houses November 5-6, 2016

There are a total of 82 Open Houses with 9 on Saturday and 73 on Sunday. Prices range from a rental at $2,700 to a sale at $8,995,000. Click here for  the interactive map to plan your route. 

Greenwich Open Houses for Nov. 5 and Nov. 6th.

Greenwich Open Houses for Nov. 5 and Nov. 6th

 

The number of homes in each price range is as follows:

Rentals: 11 Homes

Under $1,000,000: 12 Homes

From $1,000,000 to $2,000,000: 17 Homes

From $2,000,000 to $3,000,000: 20 Homes

Above $3,000,000: 22 Homes

 

[This week we’re also making some changes. The links in the list below now link to my firm, Douglas Elliman’s website. It was surprisingly complex to get the spreadsheet to handle GMLS, CMLS and none MLS numbers. Please let me know if you see any issues with the links.

Also as you may have noticed more agents are holding open houses on Saturday and I’ll try to get the open house list out before these Saturday open houses. (Client will still have to come first though. 🙂

Lastly if you are a subscriber to my open house email list in the .sig file at the bottom you’ll see GreenwichStreets.com links to a variety useful articles and the latest market report. So you don’t need to look them up. Please send any comments, suggestions or error reports to mark.pruner@elliman.com.  Thanks to all the subscribers and to Pam Toner and Rob Pulitano, my fellow OH Listers. MP.]

 

Address Town Price Time
255 Weaver Street 10h Greenwich $3,675 Sat 1-3 PM
45 Riverside Avenue Riverside $949,900 Sat 12-2 PM
12 Georgetowne North Greenwich $1,250,000 Sat 12-3 PM
300 Stanwich Road Greenwich $1,995,000 Sat 1-3 PM
718 North Street Greenwich $2,750,000 Sat 12-4 PM
151 Milbank Avenue #4 Greenwich $2,875,000 Sat 12-5 PM
138 Havemeyer Place Greenwich $3,995,000 Sat 3-5 PM
85 Indian Head Road Riverside $7,495,000 Sat 12-3 PM
11 Cove Road Old Greenwich $8,995,000 Sat 1:30-4:30 PM
Address Town Price Time
60 Oak Ridge Street 1 Greenwich $2,700 Sun 1-3 PM
60 Oak Ridge Street 2 Greenwich $3,600 Sun 1-3 PM
79 Josephine Evaristo Avenue Greenwich $4,900 Sun 1-3 PM
45 William Street A Greenwich $6,500 Sun 1-4 PM
63 Sherwood Place Greenwich $10,000 Sun 1-4 PM
10 Edgewood Drive 3 B Greenwich $10,500 Sun 1-3 PM
61 Winding Lane Greenwich $13,000 Sun 1-3 PM
303 Milbank Avenue Greenwich $19,995 Sun 1-4 PM
43 Burning Tree Road Greenwich $21,500 Sun 1-3 PM
18 Pinecroft Road Greenwich $25,000 Sun 1-4 PM
53 Putnam Park 53 Greenwich $425,000 Sun 1-3 PM
47 Lafayette Place 2g Greenwich $435,000 Sun 1-3 PM
103 Putnam Park Greenwich $547,500 Sun 12-2 PM
245 Byram Road Greenwich $549,500 Sun 1-3 PM
302 River West Greenwich $730,000 Sun 1-4 PM
30 W William Street Greenwich $750,000 Sun 11-1 PM
18 Stone Avenue 5 Greenwich $795,000 Sun 1-3 PM
83 View Street West Greenwich $799,000 Sun 1-4 PM
61 Orchard Street Cos Cob $865,000 Sun 1-3 PM
79 Josephine Evaristo Avenue Greenwich $895,000 Sun 1-3 PM
45 Riverside Avenue Riverside $949,900 Sun 12-2 PM
5 Macarthur Drive Old Greenwich $1,100,000 Sun 1-3 PM
7a Fletcher Avenue Greenwich $1,175,000 Sun 1-4 PM
61 Orchard Place A Greenwich $1,295,000 Sun 2-4 PM
85 Bowman Drive Greenwich $1,325,000 Sun 1-4 PM
19 Mallard Drive Greenwich $1,350,000 Sun 1-3 PM
45 William Street A Greenwich $1,375,000 Sun 1-4 PM
18 Ferncliff Road Cos Cob $1,595,000 Sun 12:30-2 PM
93 Valleywood Road Cos Cob $1,650,000 Sun 1-3 PM
9 Shore Road Old Greenwich $1,725,000 Sun 12-3 PM
55 Sawmill Lane Greenwich $1,795,000 Sun 1-3 PM
73 Pemberwick Road Greenwich $1,800,000 Sun 12-2 PM
570 North Street Greenwich $1,900,000 Sun 2-4 PM
22 Lincoln Avenue Greenwich $1,995,000 Sun 1-3 PM
16 Hope Farm Road Greenwich $1,995,000 Sun 1-3 PM
24 Juniper Lane Riverside $1,995,000 Sun 1-4 PM
36 Burning Tree Road Greenwich $2,050,000 Sun 1-3 PM
116 Pecksland Road Greenwich $2,100,000 Sun 1-4 PM
65 Sherwood Place Greenwich $2,150,000 Sun 1-4 PM
6 Maher Avenue Greenwich $2,150,000 Sun 2-4 PM
99 Sterling Road Greenwich $2,250,000 Sun 1-3 PM
63 Sherwood Place Greenwich $2,250,000 Sun 1-4 PM
37 Crescent Road Riverside $2,295,000 Sun 2-4 PM
25 Heusted Drive Old Greenwich $2,395,000 Sun 1-3 PM
55 Burning Tree Road Greenwich $2,395,000 Sun 1-3 PM
22 Echo Lane Greenwich $2,450,000 Sun 1-3 PM
44 Wesskum Wood Road Riverside $2,475,000 Sun 1-3 PM
17 Winterset Road Greenwich $2,550,000 Sun 2-4 PM
10 Edgewood Drive 3 B Greenwich $2,595,000 Sun 1-3 PM
5 Maher Avenue Greenwich $2,600,000 Sun 1-4 PM
69 Circle Drive Greenwich $2,669,000 Sun 1-3 PM
80 Glenville Road Greenwich $2,850,000 Sun 1-4 PM
75 Dearfield Drive Greenwich $2,875,000 Sun 1-3 PM
11 Palmer Lane Riverside $2,895,000 Sun 1-3 PM
27 Mooreland Road Greenwich $3,195,000 Sun 1-3 PM
100 Brookside Drive Greenwich $3,495,000 Sun 1-3 PM
15 Cottontail Road Cos Cob $3,495,000 Sun 1-3 PM
14 Sherwood Farm Lane Greenwich $3,495,000 Sun 1-4 PM
43 Grahampton Lane Greenwich $3,500,000 Sun 1-4 PM
3 Gisborne Place Old Greenwich $3,849,000 Sun 1-3 PM
30 Brookridge Drive Greenwich $3,900,000 Sun 1-3 PM
12 Ridgebrook Road Greenwich $3,975,000 Sun 12-2 PM
106 Lockwood Road Riverside $3,985,000 Sun 1-4 PM
61 Winding Lane Greenwich $3,995,000 Sun 1-3 PM
1 Ashton Drive Greenwich $4,290,000 Sun 2-4 PM
43 Burning Tree Road Greenwich $4,990,000 Sun 1-3 PM
14 Hycliff Road Greenwich $4,995,000 Sun 1-3 PM
636 Riversville Road Greenwich $4,995,000 Sun 1-3 PM
291 Stanwich Road Greenwich $5,495,000 Sun 1-3 PM
18 Pinecroft Road Greenwich $5,500,000 Sun 1-4 PM
16 Boulder Brook Road Greenwich $5,795,000 Sun 1-3 PM
303 Milbank Avenue Greenwich $5,949,000 Sun 1-4 PM
38 Dairy Road Greenwich $5,999,999 Sun 12-3 PM

 

 

October 2016 Greenwich Real Estate Report – Waiting on the Presidential Election Results

After two good months, October 2016 was back to average or at least the ten-year average number of sales in what is the strangest election year I’ve ever seen. Strange and uncertain does not make for a good real estate market. With the polling results tightening the outcome of the election is even more uncertain and this tightening hasn’t been good for a sales in October. In the last week we have had 12 sales, not bad for early November, but only one of the twelve sales was over $3 million, where we have more than half of our listings.

Greenwich Homes Sales 2014 - Oct. 2016

Once our private sales are added in we will probably be a little above our ten-year average of 41 October sales, but that after two good months for sales in August and September this year. October was not a bad month; it was just average.

Now in talking to Realtors the message is mixed. As Tuck Keating in our office said, “There’s a lot of activity, but not a lot of urgency.”  November, along with February, is usually one of two slow months each year, but once the uncertainty of the election is over, I expect that we will actually have a pretty good November potentially even better than our October sales. Our sales also generally have an upturn in December as people do yearend deals and this year it all depends on Washington and to lesser, but significant extent, what the news is from Hartford.

oct2016-sales-inv-cur-ks-110216

The October sales that we did have are indicative of our two-part market. We only had three sales over $4 million and no sales over $10 million in October. On the contract side things are looking a little better. We have five contracts between $4 and $5 million and six contracts between $3 and $4 million. Unfortunately, over $5 million we only have one contract waiting to close and 167 houses in inventory.

As of 11/1/16 Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts  YTD Solds  YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 9 3 0 3 13 16 6.9 6.5 #DIV/0!
$600-$800K 13 8 8 16 45 53 2.9 2.8 1.6
$800K-$1M 22 4 4 8 43 47 5.1 5.4 5.5
$1-$1.5M 60 16 5 21 100 116 6.0 5.9 12.0
$1.5-$2M 68 14 8 22 101 115 6.7 6.8 8.5
$2-$3M 107 13 5 18 92 105 11.6 11.7 21.4
$3-$4M 88 6 5 11 48 54 18.3 18.7 17.6
$4-$5M 57 5 1 6 24 29 23.8 22.6 57.0
$5-6.5M 60 0 1 1 16 16 37.5 43.1 60.0
$6.5-$10M 60 1 1 2 11 12 54.5 57.5 60.0
> $10M 47 0 0 0 4 4 117.5 135.1 #DIV/0!
                   
TOTAL 591 70 38 108 497 567 11.9 12.0 15.6

Under $2 million our sales had recently been exceeding 2015, but when you look at a spreadsheet of how sales this October compared to October 2015 the reduced sales in October 2016 mean that we’re not as far ahead as we were before. Our biggest increase this year is from $600,000 to $800,000 where we are up 14 sales from 34 to 45 sales. Over $3 million we are down 38 sales from last year. On the good side as I said, we do have seven contracts waiting to close between $3 and $5 million.

Oct. 16 vs. Oct. 15 Inventory Contracts Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts YTD Solds YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 1 -2 -3 -5 -4 -6 2.2 2.3
$600-$800K -8 3 5 8 14 17 -3.9 -3.9 -5.4
$800K-$1M 4 -1 1 0 4 3 0.5 0.7 -0.5
$1-$1.5M 9 3 -1 2 -4 -1 1.1 0.9 3.5
$1.5-$2M -6 -1 3 2 4 3 -0.9 -0.8 -6.3
$2-$3M -13 -1 -3 -4 0 -1 -1.4 -1.3 6.4
$3-$4M 1 4 -2 2 -15 -11 4.5 3.3 5.2
$4-$5M 1 3 -4 -1 -5 -2 4.4 1.8 45.8
$5-10M 10 -9 0 -9 -17 -26 33.4 47.9 10.0
> $10M 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 23.5 45.0
                   
TOTAL -1 -2 -4 -6 -24 -26 0.5 0.5 1.5

 

When you look at the actual sales compared to our inventory you can see how strong the market has been all the way up to $2 million. We’re also seeing strengthening from $2 to $3 million, as we have 13 contracts waiting to close in that price range

oct2016-4pie-110216

Our months of supply also are indicative of this strength as we are under six months supply all the way up to $2 million; a seller’s market. Now that we are in November I think you’re going to start seeing high-end properties being taken off the market at a more rapid rate than usual. The result is that months of supply may drop even if sales don’t change that much. As reported last week there have been lots of hot sales in Greenwich this year.

oct2016-mos-110216

Good properties, that are well priced are coming on and going off the market in less than a month and often for full list price or even over list price. The second half of November has traditionally been slow as people gear up for the Thanksgiving holiday, but this year may be an exception as once the election uncertainty is removed people who have been waiting may start signing contracts. If sales do pick up after the election you can expect to see some spirited bidding wars.

At the high-end we’ve seen some properties with significant price reductions and this is putting pressure on the relatively small number of high-end owners that either must sell or really want to sell this year. As these prices are lowered into the next high-end price bracket down sellers in that bracket come under more price pressure, the “cramdown” effect. The result of this is that at the higher end, prices will most likely will continue to come down as those people need to sell and some will price their houses to today’s demand level. Others will just sit tight and weather the market head winds.  But don’t discount a black swan event (or more likely a small grey swan event). We don’t need a lot of sales for our high end market to rebound. A handful of sales above $5 million, and in the best of all worlds a dozen or two sales, would drastically change the feeling of this market.

I’m away for my 30th anniversary next week so I stopped by the Town Clerk’s office and voting took less than 5 minutes. Even if you can’t be here it’s easy to vote and here the polls are open from 6 am to 8pm. Your vote will help make the housing market a more certain place.