What’s Hot in Greenwich in Greenwich Residential Real Estate in April 2018

So what’s hot in Greenwich? There are couple of ways to define that. What sold quickly and also what sold at or above the list price. If you look at a map of these quick sales and also what went to contract quickly you have an interesting map. As usual back country looks slow followed by mid-country and those area close in town do better.

Figure 1. Sales under 30 days on the market or at list or over

What this analysis does not take in to effect is that north of the Merritt we have a 4-acre zone, while we are looking at R-6 and R-7 zoning in Byram, Pemberwick, parts of Glenville and in Old Greenwich and Riverside north of the Post Road. If you standardize on 1 acre then for the four acre zone multiple the number of sales and contracts by four and for the R-7 zone divide the number of sales by 6 since the minimum lot size is 0.17 acres.

When you do that the area that jumps out is the two- acre and one-acre zone. As I wrote in my first quarter report, the high-end is doing better and we see several sales in the old golden triangle around Clabboard Ridge and the new golden triangle in Deer Park, Zaccheus Mead and Pecksland where buyers are looking for larger houses and lots, but still want to be near town.

We continue to see quick sales in the R-7 zones of Riverside and Old Greenwich. This is understandable since, as you go lower in price the pyramid of buyers broadens quickly and these areas along with Cos Cob are seeing high demand. The more expensive areas south of the Post Road in Riverside and Old Greenwich are seeing less demand as their price appreciation over the last 5 years is slowing demand. Central Greenwich continues to be in demand, but it is a very nuanced market.

The one thing that the map shows that is not nuanced is value. If you put your house on or near to the sales price the time on them market is drastically reduced. What has changed from last year and particularly 2016 is that as the map shows this good value proposition extends from the lowest price range to the highest price range and throughout every neighborhood.

In fact the one area where we are seeing a bit of a decline in quick sales is the southwest corner of Byram, Pemberwick and Glenville. This is the area that is most sensitive to the increase in interest rates and the lower deductibility of property taxes under the new federal income tax.

Figure 2. Sales and Contract over one year on market

If we look at the other end of the days on market analysis and focus on those properties that have been on the market for more that one year with their present agent, once again we see a town-wide distribution. What we frequently see with sales that have been on the market for a long time is that they frequently go to contract after a significant price drop.

Of the 47 houses that had been on the market for more than one year and have sold or are under contract, the median price was $3.59M, i.e.  well above the average list price. This is indicative of the interest that buyers have shown in the high-end market in Greenwich in the first quarter of this year.

These sales are also distributed throughout the town, though with an emphasis on the higher priced areas. When you take into account the smaller zones in Riverside and Old Greenwich you can see that finally getting to the value price for the market results in sales, even for those properties that have been on for more than one year.

You also don’t see many sales of listings that have been on for over one year  in Byram, Pemberwick and Glenville, because even the over-priced houses in that area are usually under $1M and eventually sale.

It’s an interesting market and so far 2018 is different that what we have seen in the past 8 years.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s