The 2018 Co-op & Condo Market in Greenwich, CT

In Greenwich, we have two condo markets; one pretty good and one that appears to be not so good with a sweet spot in the middle. As of 8/8/18 we have 139 condominiums and co-ops on the market here in Greenwich. Of those 139 listings, 103 of them are below $2 million, leaving 36 above that price. This a 75:25 split above and below $2.0M.

Curiously, we only have 5 listings between $1.5 and $2.0 million, while we have 22 listings between $2 and 3 million, the next higher price range. As a result, the price range from $1.5 – $2 million is the sweet spot in the middle with a very low 4 months of supply.

8/8/18 Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts  YTD Solds  YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 34 4 8 12 37 41 6.7 7.3 4.3
$600-$800K 24 3 4 7 22 25 7.9 8.4 6.0
$800K-$1M 23 2 2 4 17 19 9.8 10.6 11.5
$1-$1.5M 17 1 3 4 14 15 8.8 9.9 5.7
$1.5-$2M 5 1 0 1 10 11 3.6 4.0
$2-$3M 22 2 0 2 6 8 26.6 24.1
$3-$4M 10 1 0 1 1 2 72.6 43.8
$4-$5M 4 0 0 0 0 0
$5-6.5M 0 0 0 0 0 0
                   
TOTAL 139 14 17 31 107 121 9.4 10.1 8.2

On sales side this dichotomy above and below $2 million is even larger. Below $2 million we have 100 sales so far this year, while above $2.0 million we only have 7 sales or a 93:7 split. Once again, the $1.5 – 2.0M price range stands out with nearly twice the sales of the $2-3M price range, even though the higher price range is twice as wide, a $1 million range versus a $500,000 range.

To be clear, $2.0 million is not our median for condos. For inventory, half of our inventory is below $899,000 and half is above. On the sales side the condo median is $720,000. This compares to our single-family home inventory median of $2.95M and our sales median of $1,855,000. What’s obvious is that the two markets are very different.

Not only are the prices different, the buyers are different, the primary difference being kids. A lot fewer kids live in condos and co-ops in Greenwich than in single family homes. That not to say that we don’t have children in condos. The Old Greenwich Gables has a surprising number of children. It’s a nice complex and it also a lower cost way to get into Dundee ISD and Eastern MS, than the houses in Old Greenwich. In general, however, most of the people enjoying the lower maintenance lifestyle and the additional amenities you get in condos are younger singles, couples and downsizers.

More amenities have become a battleground in NYC, which has experienced lots of new, luxury condo construction. In Greenwich, we have not seen much new construction of condos until the last two years. If you look at the whole condo market both active and sold units this year, we only have 4 condos built between 2010 and 2106. Now more than 4 condos were built during that period, but (a) not a lot were built, and (b) most of the ones that were bought haven’t come back on the market.

Most of what was built during this condo developments nadir were smaller developments, particularly in the R-6 multi-family zone in Byram and Pemberwick. Starting in 2016, larger projects got underway, particularly in downtown Greenwich. As some people became concerned about the density of these developments, Planning & Zoning shut this door, by only allowing 2 units per R-6 zone lot, so we instead of the R-6 zone being the multi-family zone, we can call it the duplex zone going forward.

In our luxury condo market, the prices range from $2 – $4 million where we have 32 listings. (We do have 4 condos from $4 – 5 million, but nothing above that price.) This market looks more challenging for sellers as we have 2 years of supply from $2 – 3 million compared to less than a year of supply below that amount. Part of this is that a significant part of the listings in this price are still under construction and those units are harder to sell until completed. On the plus side, several of these luxury units under construction are also under contract. As these units are completed, C.O.’s are issued and the sales close, this will push our luxury market months of supply down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

July 2018 Greenwich Real Estate Sales Take a Large Jump from June

My wife really likes barn swallows. I do too, but when they set up a nest in our garage and proceeded to sit on one particular rail over the back of my car and mess up my back window every day as they grew to maturity; I was a little less joyful. By July, all of the babies had fledged and were out looking for any flying insects. The cool thing is when I’m mowing the fields on my tractor kicking up lots of insects, it looks like a World War I dog fight with swallows flying in every direction including right at me and then dodging away at the last second.

08/01/18 Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts  YTD Solds  YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 3 2 1 3 9 11 2.3 2.3 3.0
$600-$800K 17 5 6 11 29 34 4.1 4.3 2.8
$800K-$1M 28 11 5 16 34 45 5.8 5.3 5.6
$1-$1.5M 78 12 16 28 61 73 9.0 9.1 4.9
$1.5-$2M 78 17 15 32 60 77 9.1 8.6 5.2
$2-$3M 141 16 17 33 65 81 15.2 14.8 8.3
$3-$4M 100 13 6 19 41 54 17.1 15.7 16.7
$4-$5M 47 3 5 8 20 23 16.5 17.4 9.4
$5-6.5M 63 4 3 7 19 23 23.2 23.3 21.0
$6.5-$10M 52 3 1 4 5 8 72.8 55.3 52.0
> $10M 36 0 1 1 8 8 31.5 38.3 36.0
 
TOTAL 643 86 76 162 351 437 12.8 12.5 8.5

The reason I mention this is that there is a saying that a single swallow does not a summer make. Well it’s July and lots of swallows do make a summer. Our sales are up a lot over June, which is unusual as June is almost always our highest sales month.

For those folks who read my June report you may have been expecting this as while June 2018 sales were down over 2017 we had a lot of pending contracts. Well in July 76 of those contracts closed. This was a 43% jump over the 53 sales that we had in July of 2017. Also, our overall sales are officially ahead of last year 351 sales to 342 sales.

Not only are our July sales higher than June 2018 they are also above our 10-year average. Contracts are continuing to look good with 86 contracts waiting to close which is 6 contracts more than at the end of July 2017, so August 2018 should also be a good month.

On the inventory side, we are continuing to run high with 643 single-family homes up 44 listings from 599 houses last year. Folks that might have moved over the next couple of years, have decided that with the new Tax Act that they are going to move in 2018, leaving us with April level inventory in August when inventory is normally down significantly from its spring peak, but in just about every other way things are looking up sellers. Our total monthly transactions, sales plus contracts, are up significantly with 29 more transactions as of the end of July 2018; from 133 in July 2017 to 162 houses in July 2018.

From $800,000 to $1,000,000 contracts are up 9 houses over last year and year to date sales are now u over last year. This is a total of 14 more transactions this year than last year or a 33% increase.

The result is that the lower end of the market is tight. In fact, the extra inventory we’ve gotten under $1 million has been helpful as it is giving people in an area where we normally have a strong sellers’ market a few more options.

The additional sales in July were concentrated from $1- $4 million where we were up 20 sales over last year. This is also the area where we have had an increase of 33 houses in inventory, so as of July, more inventory is finding more buyers. The word seems to be getting out that we have some low property taxes for the NYC metro area.

There are two area where we continue to see some signs of weakness, one is getting better and one still needs some improvement. In our market from $1.0 – 1.5 million market. We had good sales in July, but we are still down 13 sales from last year.  At the high-end our over $10 million market has been doing stellar, but the market from $6.5 – $10 million has lost some of the momentum that it had earlier in the year. Inventory is still down as more people are deciding to stay in their houses in this price range, but total transactions are down 9 from last year. The result is a big jump in months of supply for this price range.

Now I’d like to say that July 2018 was a great month with sales way up over last July, but, last July like this June was a poor month for sales. When you look at the 10-year average for sales it was only a pretty good month. July 2018 sales had 76 sales, up 23 sales from last year, but up only 3 sales over our ten-year average of 72.9 sale. You might think we just switched poor sales months, but when you add June and July together this year and for last year, 2018 sales are still up by 8 sales.

The key thing is that it is up. As several articles have pointed out Westchester County and NYC have been suffering significant sales drops over last year. To have our sales go up, when our surrounding areas are going down is a significant factor.

The even better news is that contracts continue to be up over last year with 6 more contracts than last year. The odds are therefore that we will do better than last year in August 2018, but not by as big a margin as we saw in July.

If you are in the NYC Metro area, it’s a good time to be living in Greenwich.