Townwide, we have an amazingly low 1.8 months of condo supply compared to 2.4 months of supply last year. That might look like a big difference on a percentage basis, a further 25% drop in condo availability, but tight is tight. If you are a buyer, neither amount seems like very much inventory, since six months of supply is considered the dividing line between a buyer’s and a seller’s market, and both this year and last year, we have had a small fraction of that.
Only a little seasonality in condo sales
Traditionally, house sales peak in June or July, and this monthly sales pattern remains consistent from year to year. Rentals, on the other hand, peak over a slightly broader period from May to July. The rental peak is much flatter as rentals are more spread out throughout the year. Condominium sales are much more variable. This year, condo sales reached their peak in April only to match that number of sales last month in August. In prior years, condo sales have peaked in September and even December.
This erratic monthly sales pattern can be attributed in part to the law of small numbers. Compared to house sales and rentals, Greenwich has many fewer condo sales. In the last couple of years, monthly condo sales have varied from 9 sales to 25 sales. (BTW: All numbers in this article include co-op sales as part of the condo totals. Our 135 "condo" sales YTD include 21 co-op sales so far this year.)
Over the past quarter century, the average annual Greenwich condo sales have been 196, with annual sales fluctuating between a low of 91 sales in 2009 during the recession and a high of 265 sales in the boom year of 2021. We are on track to be around 203 sales this year, which is a little above our 24-year average.
On the other hand, when you look at month-to-month condo sales, they jump around, but this appearance of jumpiness is deceptive in that we have a small number of sales each month. A few more or less sales the next month leads to a significant percentage difference. Most months condo sales are between 15 and 23 sales; a big percentage difference, but not a big numerical difference.
You might be wondering why this lack of seasonality in condo sales matters. It's important if you are a condo owner contemplating selling or if you are in the market to purchase one. In reality, every month can be a good or bad month for condo sales, and this uncertainty means you can't predict the ideal month to either buy or sell.
We have a spring market in single-family homes because that is when the largest number of homeowners decide to sell their houses, and dormant winter buyers awaken and rush to buy. That doesn't apply in the less seasonal Greenwich condo market. In 2024, we had a lot more percentage variation, opening the year with only 16 condo listings and nearly doubling our listings to 31 condo listings this week, but it has not been a straight line. We’ve never had a lot of condo listings in Greenwich and our 31 present listings are a fraction of what we normally have had over the last 24 years.
When to buy a Greenwich condo
Since seasonality isn't a good guide for buyers what is? If you're a buyer looking for a bargain, pay close attention to the days on the market for each specific condo. Listings with significantly above-average days on the market are typically overpriced and/or have some significant issues (like being located near a highway), or require extensive renovations.
Reducing the price can address these issues, even if it results in a lower price per square foot compared to the competition. Just because the price is above market, doesn’t mean a buyer shouldn’t make a fair offer. It's surprising how often a seller with a high DOM and a high price, will accept a reasonable offer. If you do really want the condo that has been sitting on market just don't start out with low-ball bid or you are likely not to get a counter.
Condo sales have surged in the last few years, even as inventory stayed low
Over the past three years, the condo market in Greenwich has experienced a surge in sales. Sales have increased from 159 in 2019 to an all-time high of 265 in 2021. Up to August of this year, there have been 135 sales, which, when annualized, would be 203 sales for the year, slightly above the 196-average condo sales over the last 24 years.
Other market indicators show how tight our condo market is. The price per square foot increased from $475/sf in 2019 to $616/sf in 2022, a 29.7% increase in three years. Last year, the price per square foot went even higher to $692/sf, a 12% increase from the previous year. These large jumps can’t be sustained, and so far this year, we have dropped back 1.4% to $683/sf. That is still a lot for the smaller number of square feet that you get in a condo compared to a house.
Right now, all price categories are well under 6 months of supply, except for $3- - 4 million where we have 4 listings and have had 5 sales so far this year resulting in 6.4 months of supply. It’s a good time to list a condo, if you have one.
Days on the market have also dropped a lot from 2019 to this year. In 2019, our last pre-Covid year, condos sat on the market for an average of 175 days. The days on the market number were essentially unchanged in 2020, as some very slow-to-sell listings finally sold keeping the average DOM at a high level. By 2022, many of our long-term listings had sold and our days on the market started to drop. Presently, we have an average of 69 days on the market.
Our sales price to original list price ratio has also taken off in that same period. For the years from 2013 to 2020, our average sales price to the original list price was right around 93%. Then in 2021 it ticked up to 95.6% and went up to 101.1% of the original list price so far this year. This is the highest SP/OLP we have ever had.
Our median condo sales price is $1.03 million compared to $2.86 million for houses in Greenwich. In 2018, we had 36 condos listed over $2 million dollars and right now we only have 7 condos over that price. High-end downtown condos are still the holy grail for Greenwich condo buyers.
Our total condo and co-op sales volume was at a record high of $288 million dollars in 2021. This year we will come close to breaking that record with 24% less sales.
Condos provide a great place for people that really want to live in Greenwich at more reasonable prices. They also provide a diversity of homeowners and lifestyles in Greenwich. Young people can buy their first starter home and downsizers have places to go without having to endure a Florida summer. You just need to be ready to move quickly, when the right condo comes on the market.
Mark Pruner is a founding principal of the Greenwich Streets Team at Compass Connecticut. He can be reached at 203-817-2871 or
[email protected] or the Compass offices at 200 Greenwich Ave.
