Sales in the First Half of July
- 53 Sales in First 19 Days of July
- Concentrated in Old Greenwich & Riverside
- Under $1 million continues supply constrained sales
- Sales expanding in Mid-country and expanding to Backcountry
The first half of July has been a busy time for sales. The extraordinary number of contracts we had earlier in the year are maturing into sales and July 2013 is on track to be above our six year average of 67 sales and potentially above July 2012 eighty sales. The under $1 million market continues to be combat buying with a constrained inventory and very active buyers. Of the 63 contracts and accepted offers so far in July 2013, eleven of them were under $1 million and eight of the sales were under that price. If we had more inventory we would have more sales.
The other place where sales are inventory constrained are Old Greenwich and Riverside. Take a look at the map of sales from the GMLS data and you can see the heavy concentration of red pins in this area. One consequence of short inventory in OG and Riverside is increased sales in mid-country which seems to be almost back to normal, particularly under $3 million. We are even seeing more activity in backcountry and in higher price ranges.
Over $3 Million Doing Better
- 13 sales in first half of July
- Upper mid-country is sweet spot
- 270 average days on market vs. 76 days for rest of market
- Price range from $5 – 7.5 million has 5 sales and 2 contracts
Of the 53 sales so far this month, 13 of them were over $3 million dollars per the GMLS map above. This price range is concentrated along the water and in mid- and backcountry Greenwich. Activity in the mid-country is moving north from the Pecksland/Round Hill Circle/Deer Park area, which also continues active. The notable sale is 27 Oakley which after a series of reductions sold for $200,000 over list. When you hit market price the buyer’s show up even in the upper price ranges.
Backcountry is doing better too, with five sales so far this month, but only two are over $3 million. The really amazing price range is $5 – 7.5MM where we had 5 sales so far this month and 2 contracts. As companies are paying bonuses later higher end house are happening later in the year. Over $3 million sales take awhile with an average of 9 months on the market versus only 2.5 months for the under $3 million and only a month under $1 million.
Months of Supply First Half of 2013 & YTD Over $7.5 Million (7/19/13)
- Over $7.5 million very slow
- Greenwich has 21 year supply of houses over $10 million
- Good sales up to $3 millon
When you look at months of supply the over $10 million dollar range with only one sale and 39 houses on the market dwarfs everything else. We have over a 20 year supply of houses in this price range. Now the good news is we have two contracts waiting to close in that price range. Once they close this number takes a big drops, but we are still talking about years and years of supply at the present time. The next price range down looks good, by comparison, but it isn’t. Even with the five sales so far in July the 74 listings in this price range represent close to five years of supply.
Price Range Analysis
- Under $1.5 million quick sales and limited inventory
- $1.5 – 3 million transition market and improving
- $3 – 7.5 million slower earlier but getting better
- Over $7.5 million very tough
When you look at months of supply in the other price ranges you see 2.5 markets. The under $1.5 million market is highly competitive with lots of buyers fighting for 20% of the inventory of single family homes in Greenwich. July sales in this price bracket are 30% of all sales and would be higher if we had more inventory. As buyers see prices moving up and particularly interest rates moving up many more are getting off the sidelines and are actively looking.
From $3 to 7.5 million the 205 GMLS listings represent a couple of years of supply. The interesting thing is that sales are about the same in this price range as in 2012, but we have more listings on the market driving up months of supply. The half market is the transition zone from the hot under $1.5 million market to the cool over $3 million dollar market. In the transition zone of $1.5 – $3 million we have 149 listings on the GMLS. As the year progresses months of supply in this transition area is coming down as we see more buyers at higher price points.
Overall the market is continue to improve. In July the under $1.5 million and the Old Greenwich and Riverside markets are staying very active. The $1.5 – $3 million is looking better in July as is mid-country. The over $3 million market and backcountry are also seeing some improvement in sales activity, but have a good ways to go.