GREENWICH REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT FOR JULY 2013

July 2013 a Great Month for Home Sales in Greenwich

July 2013 was the best month for sales in a decade. The Greenwich MLS reported 86 single family home sales in July. We will pick up a few more non-GMLS sales as reports come in so we are likely to break 90 sales for the month. The 86 sales reported so far is 6 more than the final number for July 2012 and is 20 more sales than the average for the prior six years. You have to go all the way back to 2004 to find a stronger July. That year we had 118 home sales in Greenwich and 978 for the entire year, the best ever in Greenwich real estate.

July ’13 R.E. Stats Inventory Contracts July Solds Tot. Solds+Ks YTD Solds  YTD+Ks Mos Supply Mos w/ Ks Mo. Annlzd

< $600K

16

5

4

9

25

30

4.5

4.5

4.0

$600-$800K

20

11

6

17

33

44

4.2

3.9

3.3

$800K-$1M

19

11

11

22

40

51

3.3

3.2

1.7

$1-$1.5M

47

26

10

36

73

99

4.5

4.0

4.7

$1.5-$2M

57

23

17

40

72

95

5.5

5.1

3.4

$2-$3M

95

25

20

45

81

106

8.2

7.6

4.8

$3-$4M

88

9

8

17

28

37

22.0

20.2

11.0

$4-$5M

41

5

4

9

16

21

17.9

16.6

10.3

$5-7.5M

74

4

5

9

19

23

27.3

27.3

14.8

$7.5-$10M

31

1

1

2

4

5

54.3

52.7

31.0

> $10M

35

5

0

5

1

6

245.0

49.6

x

TOTAL

523

125

86

211

392

517

9.3

8.6

6.1

With only two more sales we will have more sales in July 2013 than in June this year, which is very unusual. In the last decade this only happened in July 2009 as we started to bounce back from the bottom of the recession and that month we only had 55 sales. So an improving economy, rising interest rates and house prices are all pushing sales up and pushing them up so fast that the increase is overwhelming the traditional cyclical sales pattern.

Image

High End Shows the Most Improvement, While Under $2MM Gets Even Tighter

The blue bar in the chart shows months of supply for all sales to date in Greenwich by price range. The main change from last month is that the over $3 million dollar ranges are doing better particularly when you look at the July 2013 sales. You can see how high end sales have picked by looking at the light grey bars which shows the annualized sales rate for July 2013.

Sales below $1.5MM continued strong with limited inventory. Buyers in the $800,000 to $1,000,000 price range found the market hyper-competitive with an amazingly small 1.7 months of supply when you annualized July sales. In this price range the 22 sales and contracts in July is actually more than the 19 houses we have in inventory.

Image

The other heartening July news was that the sales rate from $3MM to $10MM was much better in July than we had seen earlier in the year. In fact the only price range that didn’t improve in July 2013 was the over $10MM range where we still only have one sale so far this year. The good news for our highest price range is that we have 5 ultra-high end houses under contract and the ultra-high end inventory has dropped.

The one caveat in this overall upbeat sales report is the drop in the number of pending contracts and accepted offers that we have. With stellar sales in July it’s not surprising actual sales reduced the number of pending sales contracts to only 125.

The red bars in the chart show months of supply based on sales 2013 sales to date plus pending contracts and offers. The red bars are about the same level as the blue actual sales bar so if inventory additions are normal this month, we won’t be seeing months of supply coming down much in August.

 GREENWICH SALES vs. INVENTORY vs. CONTRACTS

This chart shows (1) the actual number of houses sold so far this year, (2) the number of active GMLS listings, (3) July sales and (4) pending contracts. If you look at the purple bar, which show sales by price for year to date, you can see that the large part of our sales are concentrated below $3 million. In fact 350 of the 392 homes sales or 89% are below $3 million, while inventory, the blue bars, is more evenly distributed across all the price ranges.

You can also see from the green bars (July sales), and the red bars (pending contracts and accepted offers), how tough the market has been for sellers over $4 million with just a few sales and pending contracts in these price ranges. A third of our inventory is in the upper end price ranges, while an eighth of our sales have been above $4 million. For buyers this is a golden opportunity to get their dream house.

Image

So if you read this far you should really give me a call at 203-969-7900 so we can discuss your real estate options.

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