Greenwich Market Turned Upside Down as April Sales Continue Growth in Luxury Sales

MARKET REPORT FOR APRIL 26, 2014
The most revealing and at the same time the confusing chart is the months of supply. For the last four years this has been a fairly smooth curve with as low as 2 -3 months of supply under $600K and years of supply over $10M. Take a look at the chart below showing months of supply as of Friday, April 24, 2014 and check out how ragged it lots. Let’s take a quick run through the price ranges to see what may be happening to the Greenwich market in 2014. 
Apr14MoS.mp.042614
Under $800 – This section is competitive, but sales are actually lagging a little compared to 2013. Last year we saw this price range with 2 and 3 months of supply. There are plenty of buyer’s out there in this price range. (My new listing at 49 Center Drive in OG has had 14 showings 2-1/2 days.) Looks like what we have may be a little picked over resulting in less sales velocity.
$800K – $1.5M – This market segment has seen a bunch of new listings and it takes buyers awhile to burn through the new inventory. Expect to see months of supply drop back to 6 months of supply and under in the next few months.
$1.5M – $5M – This is where the market has really changed. We used to have lots more months of supply when you hit $3M+, but this year from $2 – 5M we have had about the same 13 months of supply throughout this price. So far in 2014 61 sales out of total 133 sales have been in this price range. This is now the heart of the market. One reason maybe that the financial industry folks that predominate in this price category are now “fully-bonused” with delayed compensation from prior years and their stock awards appreciating with the rising stock market making the $3M+ house in Greenwich look attractive.
$5 -$10M – These same fully bonused buyers seem to drop out over $5M. We have over a four year supply of inventory in this price range at present sales rate. The white bar in the $7.5 – 10M shows a glimmer of hope. It shows the months of supply if you take the April sales so far and annualize them. The two sales so far in April would equal 24 sales for the year or the equivalent of 14 months of supply. The nice thing is that we are seeing more activity in the backcountry, another 2014 change from prior years. (BTW: I’m thinking of going back to just one $5 – 10M category, since the $7.5 – 10M is traditionally small. Let me know if you happen to track this category and I’ll keep it.)
Over $10M–This category is astounding! Rarely have we seen such a sharp change in demand. Last year at this time months of supply was over 6 years and that was only if you counted the one contract we had. So far in April we have had three properties sell for over $10M including an all-time U.S. record house sale of $120,000,000. Contracts are looking good too. We now have six contracts for houses over $10M for total 12 houses sold or under contract. If you annualize this month’s sales you are looking 12 months supply as the inventory in this category has dropped to only 36 units available. This 12months of supply is a faster sales rate than the $1 – 1.5MM price range.
If you are someone who has been waiting to put your over $10M house on the market give me a call a call at 203-969-7900.  New listings always stand out and the buyers are out there. If you are a prospective buyer in the over $10M price range whose been waiting, now’s the time to start actively looking and making offers
Apr. 26, 2014
Inventory
Contracts
Mo. Solds
Tot. Solds+ Contracts
YTD Solds
YTD+ Contracts
Mos Supply
Mos w/ Contracts
Mo. Annlzd
< $600K
12
4
2
6
6
10
7.7
6.4
6.0
$600-$800K
19
11
4
15
12
23
6.1
4.4
4.8
$800K-$1M
26
8
3
11
8
16
12.5
8.7
8.7
$1-$1.5M
53
26
4
30
19
45
10.8
6.3
13.3
$1.5-$2M
57
16
4
20
14
30
15.7
10.2
14.3
$2-$3M
96
23
5
28
30
53
12.4
9.7
19.2
$3-$4M
73
17
6
23
20
37
14.1
10.6
12.2
$4-$5M
37
9
3
12
11
20
13.0
9.9
12.3
$5-7.5M
75
3
0
3
5
8
57.9
50.3
$7.5-$10M
28
2
2
4
2
4
54.0
37.5
14.0
> $10M
36
6
3
9
6
12
23.2
16.1
12.0
TOTAL
512
125
36
161
133
258
14.9
10.6
14.2
Good house hunting,
Mark

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