The Mostly Ups and Downs of Greenwich Real Estate May 2014

GREENWICH MARKET REPORT FOR MAY, 2014
Summary – The Greenwich market is busy, not quite as busy as the spectacular 2013, but much better at the high end. We have inventory shortages below $800,000 and big influx of inventory over $10,000,000. This influx of high-end sellers is due to a big jump in sales and contracts at the ultra-high end.
Why Months of Supply is Important
If you are buying or selling a home and want to know what the marketplace is like, one of the best number to look at is months of supply, i.e. how long would it take sell all of the inventory presently on the market at the present rate of sales. Generally if months of supply is less than 6 months you are looking at a seller’s market and over a year is a buyer’s market. As you go higher in price this dividing line moves up. Expensive houses always have more months of supply even in a hot market, there are just fewer available buyers.
You can also get a good feeling as to where each price range is by looking at months of supply including pending contracts. If the months of supply number is much lower with contracts than when you only look at actual sales then that market is picking up.
To see this trend in even more detail, I also like to look at the previous months sales annualized to see the pace of recent sales. If that number of months of supply is even lower than that is also an indicator that sales are picking up. This last number does jump around, because in Greenwich in any given month in a particular price range we only have a handful of sales; meaning a couple of sales can move this number dramatically especially in the smaller over $5 million market.
The raw numbers are also useful, particularly as you get down to particular neighborhoods. As any Realtor will tell you if you are looking for a house under $800,000 in Old Greenwich, they’ll be able to show you everything that is available in one day.
GREENWICH MARKET ANALYSIS BY PRICE RANGE
Let’s take a quick run through the price ranges to see what is happening to the Greenwich market in 2014.
Greenwich Housing Statistics May 2014
Under $800K– This section is competitive, but sales are actually lagging a little compared to 2013. Last year we saw this price range with 2 and 3 months of supply; total combat buying. This year there are still plenty of buyer’s out there in this price range, it just backed off to hot from torrid. My “new” listing at 49 Center Drive in OG has contracts out and I’m still getting regular calls for showing.
When you include contracts and the May sales the months of supply doesn’t change much in this price range. The future market is likely to continue busy as long as we continue to get inventory coming on this is market this pace should continue. Buyers, however still need to be ready to move, particularly on the east side of town when something they like comes on the market.
This is a segment where the raw numbers tell the story (see chart and the spreadsheet below). We have 33 houses for sale in this price range. We also have 26 houses sold year to date and another 16 under contract. When you run the number this segment is going to stay busy and the six sales in the month of May support that idea.
$800K – $1.5M– This is the market segment where you can see sales accelerating after a so-so start. When you look at this mid-market we see 42 sales with an inventory of 81 houses giving us about 6 months of supply. When you look at the months of supply with contracts you can see that the sales rate will be picking up and the May sales definitely support this. When you look just at sales in this segment we have 6.5 months of supply, but if you annualize the May sales we drop to 5.4 months of supply, a big change for one month. The good thing for buyers is that we have also seen new inventory coming rapidly to market in this price range.
May14.Sales.Inv.YTD.Cur.Ks.mp.053114

Greenwich Housing Number May 2014 – Inventory, Sales YTD, May Sales and Contracts

$1.5M – $4M– This is really the heart of the Greenwich market. Out of a total inventory of 579 home listings in Greenwich 243 of the listings are in this price range. Year to date we have 93 sales in this price range out of a total of 192 sales. When you add in the 80 pending sales this market will likely see seasonal tightening as we burn through the spring inventory. The question here is how many sellers seeing a generally good market will put their houses on in the summer market. Traditionally summer is a slower time for new inventory, but we have a lot of people that have been sitting on their houses waiting to move until the market comes back and now it’s back.
$4 -$10M– This market segment is doing much better than it was in 2013. Last year these houses were a very tough sell, this year they are moving, but this segment is still the weak spot in the market. We have 166 beautiful homes in this price range with 23 sales and an additional 18 under contract waiting to close, but we still have three years of supply.
If you add in contracts in this price range we drop to under 2 years supply. Also as I said above this price range will always have more months of supply. We just have fewer people that can buy these houses and they will never have the buying traffic that we see in lower priced houses.
Things are looking up from $4 – 7.5M and we can expect steady sales of well-priced houses in this segment of the market. For those seller who have been waiting to put their house on the market now might be a good time.
Over $10M– Clearly this is a category where sellers have jumped at the chance to put their houses on the market. For most of last year we had around 42 listings in the ultra-high end. As of the end of May we have 56 listings. Only a little while ago we were down to 39 listings due to the 12 contracts and sales we’ve had so far this year. Last year at this time we had yet to have a single sale over $10M.
This is a small market by numbers of houses only 10% of our market, but the high prices make it a big part of sales. When you throw in the sale of Copper Beach Farm these 8 sales and 4 contracts are almost a quarter-billiondollars. Also many of these buyers have a major impact on the life of the community. We just had a wonderful Greenwich Town Party with Santana and to a person everyone who attended raved about it. We have Ray Dailio Jr. and Sr. to thank for this wonderful event. In another example, Greenwich Hospital is one of the premier hospitals in the area with a major factor being donations from this group. These folks have a big influence not only in Greenwich, but throughout the state so a pick-up in sales in this price range often benefits more than just the buyer and seller.
May 31, 2014
Inventory
Contracts
Mo. Solds
Tot. Solds+ Contracts
YTD Solds
YTD+ Contracts
Mos Supply
Mos w/ Contracts
Mo. Annlzd
< $600K
13
2
2
4
9
11
7.2
7.7
6.5
$600-$800K
20
14
4
18
17
31
5.9
4.2
5.0
$800K-$1M
26
12
4
16
11
23
11.8
7.3
6.5
$1-$1.5M
55
32
13
45
31
63
8.9
5.7
4.2
$1.5-$2M
58
19
8
27
29
48
10.0
7.9
7.3
$2-$3M
108
36
6
42
33
69
16.4
10.2
18.0
$3-$4M
77
25
7
32
31
56
12.4
8.9
11.0
$4-$5M
47
7
3
10
9
16
26.1
19.1
15.7
$5-7.5M
83
10
1
11
10
20
41.5
27.0
83.0
$7.5-$10M
36
1
1
2
4
5
45.0
46.8
36.0
> $10M
56
4
2
6
8
12
35.0
30.3
28.0
TOTAL
579
162
51
213
192
354
15.1
10.6
11.4
Conclusion – Overall the market is doing well, not as good as a spectacular 2013 in unit sales, but much better at the high end. It looks more like a traditional Greenwich market. Our inventory is still low at 579 listings and our 192 sales are close to the eight-year average of 213 sales at this time of year. In fact we should pick up another 8 – 10 sales as late reported sales come in from the GMLS and SearchGreenwich.net reports on the handful of private sales. It’s a good time to be in real estate.
Sales.SFH.2012-May2014Prelim.mp.040314

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