FIRST HALF 2014 MARKET REPORT
by Mark Pruner
GREENWICH MARKET REPORT FIRST HALF OF 2014
Summary – The Greenwich market is busy. We are doing better than 2012, though not quite as busy as the stellar 2013. The high end over $4,000,000 is doing much better. Under $1.5 million is combat buying come prepared and well financed. The middle is doing fine and we could use some more inventory as the buyers sift the wheat from the chaff.
GREENWICH MARKET ANALYSIS BY PRICE RANGE
So far in 2014 we have had 275 houses sold and have another 142 houses under contract. Our inventory is down to 571 houses and we sold 81 houses in June through the Greenwich MLS.
|As of 7/7/14||Inventory||Contracts||Last Mo. Solds||Tot. Solds+ Contracts||YTD Solds||YTD+ Contracts||Mos Supply||Mos w/ Contracts||Last Mo. Annlzd|
Under $800,000 – This price range after a somewhat slower start in 2014 than in 2013 has returned to combat buying. If you annualize the June sales you are looking at 2 – 3 months of supply. We have no single family homes listed for less than $495,000 and only 21 houses mostly on the west side of town under $800,000
$800K – $1.5M – Combat buying continues up to $1,000,000. Supply starts to meet demand when you get over $1,000,000. In June we had 63 sales in this price category and have another 40 contracts waiting to close, leaving only an inventory of 76 units
$1.5M – $4M – This market segment is well balanced with good sales and good inventory. We also have a bunch of contracts waiting to close. In 2013 and 2012 we saw a big break in market demand at a little over the $2,000,000, in 2014 we have good buyer interest all the way up to $4,000,000. Year to date 130 of our 275 sales have been in this price range and we have 64 houses under contract.
$4 -$10M – If present trends continue any buyers in this price range are likely to be kicking themselves this time next year. The segment is still a buyer’s market but months of supply are coming down and what bargains there are going to get even scarcer. Seller’s still have a lot of competition out there with some really beautiful homes competing for buyer’s attention. While the trend is in the seller’s favor, this market is still too thin not to try to work hard to make a deal with a buyer in the ball park.
Another factor that impacts this market in particular is non-GMLS sales. In June twelve houses in Greenwich were sold privately based on the searchGreenwich.net numbers. Of these twelve sales, three were between $5 and 10 million. Add in these three sales and the months of supply for $5 – 7.5M drops 4 months and the months of supply for $7.5 – 10 million drops 9 months. Bottom line, in thin markets it’s particularly important to look at all sales, not just those that are easy to find.
Over $10M– Wall Street bonuses are given out early in the year and several people have already used their bonuses. We are still looking good in this price category with nine sales and five houses under contract, but only but sales have sold, still we have already surpassed 2013 in this price category so any additional sales just make 2014 look better.
Conclusion – The first half 2014 epitomizes the “new normal”, a busy, but skittish market. Unlike prior post-recession years, our upper end, above $4 million, is getting better and over $10 million much better Our lower end below $1.5 million was clearly impacted by the harsh weather in February and March. Sales in April, May and June have been above our 8 year average and only look disappointing when compared to 2013 which was a very good year. It’s a fun time to be a Realtor, because a good Realtor in a market like this really can add value for their clients.
If you have any questions about the Greenwich real estate market feel free to give me a call.