First Half Market Supply and Demand in Greenwich, CT
Greenwich Inventory vs. Sales
Comparing the percentage of each price range sold to the inventory in that price range is another way of looking at demand in that price range and it also shows you how each price range compares to the overall market. If you look at the inventory pie chart you can see that the under $1,000,000 market in Greenwich only has 8% of the market; it’s three tiny little sliver at the top right of the chart. Look at sales for the same price range and you can see that the under $1,000,000 market comprises 19% of the sales. If we had more inventory in this highly competitive price range these segments would be even more disproportionate.
Going counter-clockwise from the top tells the opposite story. Over $5MM sales are only 11% of the market, while inventory constitutes 30% of the market. This market is slow, but it needed life support last year.
The big story this year is the market from $2MM to $4MM. This market is 34% of the inventory and 34% of the sales. The increase in sales of this price segment is driving average market price higher. The average price of all houses sold through the GMLS for the first half of the year is an amazing $3,005,723. Now over $400,000 of that amount is attributable to the sale of Copper Beech Farm at $120,000,000. I you take out that one sale the average drops to $2,578,737 which is still a big number.
The increase of higher end sales has even affected the median price which is now up to an even $2,000,000, well above the $1.6MM at the start of the year. Now this doesn’t mean that average house value in Greenwich had jumped double digits this year, we’re up, but only in the single digits, the jump in the average and median price is mainly due to the shift of sales to higher price ranges. Even a single digit increase in house values in a low inflation environment is a real increase in value which shows that real estate, especially in Greenwich continues its climb.
What’s Happening Now in Greenwich Real Estate
The short answer to what’s happening now is more of the same when you look at June 2014 real estate sales in Greenwich. In June 2014 sales of houses over $2MM in Greenwich were a little more than 50% of the market; year to date the upper half was right at 50% of the market.
This trend to higher end sales may have peaked based on the contracts that we have. Here less than 50% of the contracts are for houses over $2,000,000 and the proportion of contracts is also slightly greater. Neither one of the changes is big, so contracts also indicate a market likely to continue the status quo, but it’s a good “quo”.
Feel free to call me at 203-969-7900 if you have any questions.