This is the fifth of seven posts on the state of the Greenwich real estate market near the end of 2014. To read the entire report click this link: The Greenwich Real Estate Report YTD – Nov. 2014
GREENWICH MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND MARKET COMPETITIVENESS BY PRICE RANGE
We get a bunch of new listings in September as part of the fall market. By November inventory drops as the number of sales and listing withdrawals greatly outnumber new listings. The result is the months of supply curve that you see here where we have tight supply all the way up to $3 million. The current sales rate from annualized November sales (white bars) shows the same thing.
Under $2 Million
Everything under $1 million dollars is a sellers market if the property is priced correctly. Even in this very competitve price range, over-priced properties sit on the market. In this post-recession market buyers at all price ranges, and particularly below $1.5 million insist on value. It doesn’t have to be a bargain, but buyers will not pay more than what they perceive market value is no matter how much they love the house. The average sales price to list price percentage has stayed around 93% for the last several years.
We only had 6 sales between $1 and 2 million in November so the annualized months of supply jumped in this category. December should be a better month as we have 33 of our 85 pending contracts in this one price range.
$2 Millon to $5 Million
Sales from $2 to $5 million have been steady and as inventory has dropped this market has tightened significantly as sales have continued at a good pace. In November we had 17 sales in this price range while our inventory dropped by 35 listings as 18 other listings expired or were withdrawn.
From $2 – 3 million we saw a big drop in months of supply as listings declined by 20 due to 10 sales in November and withdrawals. In addition to the 10 sales we have 19 contracts pending. The result is that months of supply dropped to only 7 months of supply a low number for such a pricey range.
We also had drops in months of supply from $3 – 5 million. We were down 1.6 months of supply from $3 – 4 million and 1.3 months from $4 – 5 million, but we still have an inventory of 106 listings from $3 – 5 million, so there are still plenty of choices.
Over $5 Million
The over $10 million price range has been active since September 2013, with very high end buyers looking and buying. Over $5 million dollars is still a buyer’s market, but the momentum for the past 12 months is clearly towards the sellers. Indicative of this is a drop 5 months in months of supply from $5 – 7.5 million and a huge 10 months from $7.5 – 10 million.
The market is even a better than this huge drop in months of supply indicates. The $5 – 10 million price has by far the largest number of private sales in Greenwich. In the $5 -10 M price range 10 houses sold outside the GMLS while 39 have been sold through the GMLS. There is no good way to calculate months of supply for these private sales, since you can’t know how many houses are offered privately. Bottom line this segment is improving quickly and the raw numbers don’t tell the whole story.