February 2016 Greenwich Real Estate Report

By Mark Pruner

Douglas Elliman  – Greenwich

Mark.pruner@elliman.com – 203-969-7900

 February’s generally warm weather led to a great month for sales in Greenwich. We had 43 sales of single family homes reported by the Greenwich MLS. Our 10-year average for February is 31 and our previous high was February 2015 with 41 sales including private sales. Our 43 sales this month don’t include the private so this record will only get better.

February 2016 Report Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts  YTD Solds  YTD+ Contracts Mos Supply Mos w/ Contracts Last Mo. Annlzd
< $600K 2 2 3 5 4 6 1.0 1.2 0.7
$600-$800K 13 4 4 8 9 13 2.9 3.5 3.3
$800K-$1M 17 4 4 8 8 12 4.3 5.0 4.3
$1-$1.5M 40 14 10 24 12 26 6.7 5.4 4.0
$1.5-$2M 64 10 7 17 11 21 11.6 10.7 9.1
$2-$3M 87 11 5 16 9 20 19.3 15.2 17.4
$3-$4M 72 7 5 12 7 14 20.6 18.0 14.4
$4-$5M 51 2 2 4 2 4 51.0 44.6 25.5
$5-6.5M 52 4 2 6 4 8 26.0 22.8 26.0
$6.5-$10M 49 2 0 2 2 4 49.0 42.9
> $10M 46 1 1 2 1 2 92.0 80.5 46.0
TOTAL 493 61 43 104 69 130 14.3 13.3 11.5

We still need more inventory, but that is coming on quickly as our warm El Nino winter continues. Listings under $1.5M are selling at a torrid pace with less than 5 months of supply.

Sales over $4M have been slow to take off this year, but that is becoming the new normal. It used to be that high-end sales matched the award of bonuses in the first quarter, but now that bonuses are mostly paid in stock and deferred over multiple years sales of higher end houses tend to happen in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

The market from $5 – 6.5M has been our sweet spot for high end sales as buyers who are being frugal and might have bought higher priced properties before are finding that this price range has just what they need.

graph-1

Of our 43 sales so far this month 4 of them went for list or over list. These four ranged from $1.02M to $1.85M which has been our hot market for over a year.

When we add say a half dozen private sales for the month of February, last month is only going to look even more record breaking.

graph-2

Above $1.5 million we have good inventory and we have good activity up to $4 million as you can see by by the green bars (last month’s sales) and the red bar (contracts) above that we have lots of choices.

graph-3

We have a steady march up in months of supply from under $600K  where it is pure combat buying to $4M where we have about a year and a half of supply. This amount of supply at would normally indicate a strong buyers’ market at any other time of the year is only indicative of lots of inventory coming on the market earlier than usual this year.

We also are seeing houses that were taken off for the winter coming back on. A GMLS policy also is leading to a jump in higher end listings. If a house has been off the market for more than 90 days than the days on market when it comes back on the market it is treated as a new listing with zero DOM. So we are seeing lots of “new” listings that were not on the market last month, but were listed last year.

The new inventory is coming on the market as we do every spring, but this year it has come on earlier due to El Nino and buyers have been taking advantage of it. The real test of this market is March, a month that seen it’s ups and downs over the last few years. If this March is anything like February, then 2016 could turn out to be a very good year.

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