The High-End Greenwich Real Estate Market by Volume

By Mark Pruner

Douglas Elliman – Greenwich

mark.pruner@elliman.com – 203-969-7900

We have $2.7 billion of house listings on the market and 60% of that $2.7 billion, or $1.6 billion of listings are on for over $5 million. This is more remarkable when you consider that the 169 listings over $5 million represent only 29% of all listings.  When you look at houses solde the story is even more dramatic with the number of sales over $5 million representing 32% of sales volume, but only 8% of the 122 sales we’ve had so far.

Most of the stats you see for the market are based on number of houses sold not the value of those houses. Whether $500,000 or $15,000,000 it still counts as only one sale. When you look at the total value of the listings and sales, the Greenwich market looks very different. At the end of the first quarter we had we had 577 single family home listings and had accumulated 122 home sales in the first quarter. Our listing counts peak between $2 and 3 millions and the number of first quarter sales peaks between $1 and 1.5 million.

graph-1

Greenwich Listings and Sales by Volume

If instead of looking at the number of listings and sales you look at the value of the listings and sales, i.e. the sales volume, you can see how the listings over $5 million, and particularly over $10 million have so much of the listing value in Greenwich. In the spring market we always have more listings than sales, but when you look at listings and sales by value the sales almost disappear. Our highest volume price range is as you may expect the over $10 million price range where we have $788 million of listings while our highest sales volume is between $3 and 4 million where we have a total of $37 million of sales.

graph-2

When you focus in on the volume of just sales and contracts a different story shows up. As mentioned, sales volume year-to-date peaks between $3 and 4 million dollars. While March was a poor month for sales, it was a good month for contracts signings. For price ranges all the way from $2 million to over $10 million the sales volume of signed contracts exceed the sales volume for the first three months of the year. The one exception is the $6.5 – $10 million range where we only need a couple of contracts to turn around this segment also.

graph-3

Spreadsheet of Inventory, Contracts and Sales Volume by Price Range

As of 4/2/16 Inventory Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts  YTD Solds  YTD+ Contracts
< $600K  $ 1,504,000  $ 1,149,000  $                   –  $ 1,149,000  $ 1,882,900  $ 3,031,900
$600-$800K  $ 10,813,999  $ 4,107,000  $   1,395,000  $ 5,502,000  $ 7,386,500  $ 11,493,500
$800K-$1M  $ 18,148,500  $ 5,584,000  $   2,710,000  $ 8,294,000  $ 9,903,000  $ 15,487,000
$1-$1.5M  $ 67,473,500  $ 17,111,000  $   8,455,000  $ 25,566,000  $ 22,630,006  $ 39,741,006
$1.5-$2M  $ 133,279,500  $ 28,433,000  $ 10,737,500  $ 39,170,500  $ 30,217,500  $ 58,650,500
$2-$3M  $ 252,348,990  $ 59,822,000  $   6,755,000  $ 66,577,000  $ 29,435,500  $ 89,257,500
$3-$4M  $ 338,380,999  $ 42,585,000  $ 13,418,100  $ 56,003,100  $ 37,728,100  $ 80,313,100
$4-$5M  $ 237,453,995  $ 22,587,375  $   8,791,500  $ 31,378,875  $ 17,691,500  $ 40,278,875
$5-6.5M  $ 396,838,000  $ 28,430,000  $                   –  $ 28,430,000  $ 21,840,000  $ 50,270,000
$6.5-$10M  $ 428,547,000  $ 7,100,000  $   8,838,000  $ 15,938,000  $ 24,788,000  $ 31,888,000
> $10M  $ 788,118,000  $ 26,475,000  $ 14,000,000  $ 40,475,000  $ 24,750,000  $ 51,225,000
             
TOTAL  $ 2,672,906,483  $ 243,383,375  $ 75,100,100  $ 318,483,475  $ 228,253,006  $ 471,636,381

At the end of the first quarter we have $243 million in contract value in 93 contracts; 41 of those contracts are non-contingent all of which should close. We have 52 contingent contracts and usually about 90% of those contracts will close. Sometimes they need a second attempt at bank financing. With the federal government’s new TRID regulations this percentage may drop a little as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau complicates finance and closings to “protect” the consumer.

2016 Sales over $5M in Greenwich

graph-4Figure 1 – 2015 Solds and Contracts over $5 Million

So far we have had 23 sales and contracts over $5 in Greenwich.  The transactions are spread pretty evenly between three areas in town Belle Haven/Meads Point, mid-country and backcountry.

Listings over $5M in Greenwich

graph-5Figure 2- Active $1 – 2 million -April 2016

We have 170 listings over $5 million in Greenwich that are spread throughout the town. The waterfront and backcountry have many of the listings, but mid-country in the 2-acre zone and even the 1-acre zone have very good representations.

 

2016 Sales and Listings Volume over $5M by Percentage

When you look at the pie charts for inventory and sales the disproportionate value above $5 million is clear with 60% of the market value. The solds over $5 million represent only about half that percentage or about 30%.

graph-7 graph-8

Summary

  The over $5 million market is a very important part of the market for Greenwich. We have beautiful houses on gorgeous lots in this price range and it certainly gets the most attention from the national media.

We have a lot of good options in this price range, but as we have seen for the last couple of years, sales in this price range have been slow and mostly occurring in the third and fourth quarters.

We do have some good news here and there. For the backcountry in particular we are hearing of some return of the weekend buyer primarily from New York City. Last year we saw good sales in the $5 – 6.5 million range and we have had nice sales at the very high-end this year. We have some promising developments, but no clear signs of an upturn.

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