Greenwich High-End Sales are Perking Up in Mid-September 2016

 

Rest of the Market is Good to Very Good

August was a good month for sales in Greenwich and September is looking like it will be too. And, for more good news, the high-end market is perking up in September. We’ve had 5 sales over $4 million in Greenwich so far this month including the highest priced sale so far this year, $16,250,000. We also have another 10 contracts pending over $4 million.

As of 9/21/16 Contracts Last Mo. Solds Tot. Solds+ Contracts
< $600K 9 4 13
$600-$800K 18 10 28
$800K-$1M 11 2 13
$1-$1.5M 15 7 22
$1.5-$2M 14 11 25
$2-$3M 15 7 22
$3-$4M 9 2 11
$4-$5M 7 1 8
$5-6.5M 1 2 3
$6.5-$10M 2 1 3
> $10M 0 1 1
TOTAL 101 48

149

 

So far in September we have 48 sales; 38 single family homes, 2 co-ops, and 8 condos. If you gross up the 38 single family home sales for the whole month you get 54 sales for September. This compares to a ten-year average of 46 house sales in September. Now 2015 had a good September with 63 sales, but when you take out the 8 private sales you have a near identical 55 GMLS sales in 2015 to our expected 54 sales this year.

The really good news comes from when you look at our contracts. We have 101 contingent and pending (no contingency) contracts. Of those 101 contracts, 10 are over $4 million. We can use some more sales in this price range, but the trend is in the right direction this month.

I talked to Russ Pruner, who had the buy side of this year’s highest sale and the sell side of last year’s highest sale. He said the prime factors in the high-end market are condition and location. Both of these highest sales were multi-acre properties on Long Island Sound. Condition is also key as people these days have limited time and want to spend time as little time as possible renovating to their needs. With the variety of beautiful homes that don’t have to settle.

One other big factor is style and layout. Big, imposing houses with “institutional” feeling layouts are not as popular as more “friendly” houses, which seems to be a factor damping more sales at the ultra-high end. Having said that we’d only need 10 buyers to make a huge difference in the over $10 million market.

Our market under $2 million continues to do well. The GMLS sales figures of listings under $2 million include 10 condos and co-ops and 24 house sales. Interestingly, just like our houses our condos are slower at the high end, however, for condos the high-end starts at around $1.8 – 2 million.

September Sales and Contracts as of 9/21/16

Greenwich Sales and ContractsBlue are solds, Yellows are Pending Contracts, Green are Contingent Contracts

When you look at the geographical distribution of sales and contract you can see that the idea that back-country sales are dead is just wrong. Given that backcountry Greenwich is 4-acre zoning you need to quadruple the dots in backcountry to get a graphical feel of just how popular sales per lot are compared to the 1-acre zone.

In fact, where you see most of the sales and contracts within a half mile of I-95 you are looking at half-acre, quarter-acre and even one-sixth-acre zones. So cut those dots by a half, three-quarters or five-sixths depending on the zone and backcountry is looking a lot better. Having said that it’s a slower market, but by no means dead.

Another thing you see reflected on the map is commuting time to NYC whose businesses have been booming. Being near New York or near the train or highway to New York will help your sale.

On the inventory side we are now in the heart of the fall market with 620 single family homes on the market. This is a little higher than normal, but having adequate supply from $1 – 2 million, and decent, though not good supply, under $1 million is leading to more sales in 2016 than last year.

Overall it’s turned into a good second half market and the recent high-end sales are promising. While it had been slow at the high-end, we have reached that time of year where those property start selling.

For more information give me a call at 203-969-7900. Mark Pruner

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