August 2021 is the inflection point when the fuel that drives the market, listings was finally choked off. At the beginning of the week, we hit an all-time low of 259 single family homes on the market. In the first couple of days of September, the beginning of the fall market, we have not gotten a burst of new listings, hopefully that will come next week when we get back to a 5 business day week.
The concern is that most people who wanted to sell have done so, but never underestimate supply and demand. The demand is definitely there, it’s driving up prices which should elicit more supply. It’s just we had over 1,100 sales in the 12 months from July 2020 to June 2021. July 2021 was the all-time sales month with 143 sales, while we “dropped” back to 96 sales in August 2021, still 43% above her 10 year average.
So here are 10 bullet points about what is going on in our market comparing pre-Covid 2019 to a Covid and WOOFH (Work Often or Occasionally From Home) driven market.
(Click on any table for a larger version)
- Inventory is way down from 585 listings at the beginning of September 2019 to 267 listing in 2021 or a drop of 54%
- Solds are up over 100% from 393 in 2019 to 752 in 2021
- As a result, months of supply have fallen off a cliff from 13 months of supply in 2019 to less than 3 months of supply in 2021
- Total Sales volume is up by $1.37 billion in town of 63,000 people
- Days on market have gone from an average of 235 DOM to 129 DOM or a drop of 45%
- Old Greenwich has had 117 sales in 2021 vs 55 sales by August 2019, an increase of 89%
- Cos Cob (157%), Glenville (129%), South of the Parkway (122%), Pemberwick (120%), Riverside (105%), South of the Post Road (103%) and North of the Parkway (100%) have all seen sales double or more from 2019 to 2020
- South of the Parkway (down to the Post Road) saw sales volume go from $295 million to $836 million an increase of 184%
- Riverside saw the average sold price per s.f. increase by 23% in 2 years from $540/s.f. to $666/s.f. in 2021
- Cos Cob saw the average sales price to assessment ratio increase by 19% from August 2019 to August 2021
It’s been amazing, if we get more listings, it will continue to be that way.