Over $10 Million Sales on Track for their Second-Best Year Ever in 2026

If you annualize our 14 sales so far, you come up with 31 sales for the whole year, not that far from last year’s record of 38 sales. You also get $535 million in total sales or about a quarter of our total sales volume for all price ranges. This amount is down just a little from last year’s record $603 million in sales over $10 million.

If you look back at our sales over $10 million this century, you can see that they are concentrated in particular areas of town. In backcountry, these sales are along Round Hill Road, Lake Avenue and North Street, with many of those in Conyer’s Farm. In mid-country, we have two areas where the high-end sales congregate. You have what has been called the Golden Triangle, which actually looks more like the constellation Orion with extra stars. It runs along Round Hill, Lake Avenue, and Clapboard Ridge Road. You also have a concentration of over $10 million houses in the southwest portion of mid-country around Zaccheus Mead and Pecksland Road and the small lanes in that area.

Then you have our famous private waterfront associations, some of which work to be inconspicuous behind their guarded gates. From west to east you have the southern end of Byram Shore Road, Belle Haven, Indian Harbor, and Mead Point, all private associations. Going further east you have the Riverside and Old Greenwich waterfront, mostly on small lanes that lead down to water with a few smaller private associations.

Over the last 26 years, these areas haven’t changed much, nor have the number of sales townwide varied a lot. We usually have around 10 sales a year over $10 million. Since 1999, we’ve had the low single digits of sales in 1999, 2001 – 2003, and 2015 – 2016. Interestingly, a drop in sales over $10 million doesn’t match our recession periods. It seems when we have a recession, buyers swoop in to get bargains and the high-end sales drop a couple of years later.

The one notable exception to this rule of little change has been seen in the last two year. Last year was a record year for sales and this year will come close to that record. The jump in sales the last two year has not been evenly spread throughout the high-end areas. Almost all of the dramatic increase in sales has been concentrated in mid-country where our two-acre zone is located. This zone has always been sort of a sweet spot for high-end houses, with enough acreage for a large house, while not being too far from downtown Greenwich.

From 1999 – 2023, our average number of sales in mid-country was a little under 4 sales. In 2024, mid-country sales doubled to 8 sales. In 2025, mid-country sales took off with 20 of our 38 sales that year being in mid-country. This year, if you annualize the sales through mid-June, you are looking at 17 mid-country sales out of an estimated 31 sales.

The other thing that has changed due to Covid, and continued in the post-Covid era, is the sales price to original list price ratio. Prior to Covid, high-end houses were almost always over-priced, at least in comparison with their lower-priced brethren. Most years our average SP/OLP percentage for the whole market was in the low to mid 90s. At the same time, high-end sales percentages were often in the low 80s or 10% lower than the rest of the market. Another way to look at that is these houses over $10 million were often selling for a million dollars less than their original list price.

That changed with Covid, now over $10 million sales average sales price to original list price is in the low 90s. Now, you could argue that high-end houses are still overpriced as our SP/OLP ratio is now at or a little over 100%. The high-end is still trailing by 10%, but we don’t see the shocking reductions that we used to see.

Where we have seen dramatic shrinkage in our months of supply. After the Great Recession, our months of supply for houses over $10 million was around 120 months or ten years of supply. As of last month, our MoS for over $10 million is under one year of supply. The over $10 million price range is still a special market with the highest MoS. The next price range down, our $6.5 – 10 million market, has only 6.7 MoS. Just below that from $5 – 6.5 million, our months of supply drops into combat buying with only 1.7 months of supply. It is unheard of for such a high price range to have such high demand and low inventory.

Having said that, houses over $10 million are on the market for an average of 132 days. This is the best the ultra-high end has ever done, but still doesn’t compare to the median 24 days for the rest of the market. We have 30 active listings over $10 million, but it’s actually less than that for most high-end buyers. Very high-end buyers want what they want, and they have the money to pay for it. They often want a particular style of house in a particular area and there they may only have a few houses to choose from.

What’s going to happen this year? A lot of it depends on the stock market. If the market stays up, but with increasing investor concerns that this stock market rally is getting long in the tooth, we might make it to 38 sales again this year. Last year, fear of candidate Mamdani upped our sales. Sales are a little slower this year as the reality of Mayor Mandani has been better than the fear, but that can change quickly. We only need a dozen or two dozen additional buyers to make this another stellar year for our over $10 million market.

We are looking good so far in the first half of the year.