November Real Estate Sales Continue Strong in Greenwich Despite Record Low Inventory
Our market continues to be astounding with sales going above our 10-year pre-Covid average for only the second time in the last three years. This is despite our inventory continuing to plumb record lows. We had 44 single family home sales in Greenwich in November. This is 5 sales above our 10-year pre-Covid average or 13% above our average of 39 sales.
How We Got Above Average Sales With Way Below Average Inventory
Obviously, this is not a huge increase until you look at what was available to buy. By the end of the month, we only had 88 listings, i.e. our sales were half of our month-end inventory. Now, we started the month at 115 listings or 27 listings higher. We also had 12 blue moons, listings that came on in November and were sold by the end of the month. Throw in 5 contracts from prior months and that’s how you get to 44 sales with minimal inventory.
What About December Sales?
December will be touch and go to see if this month’s sales are above our 10-year average of 54 sales. We do have 83 contracts waiting to close. Of those 83 contracts, 67 are non-contingent and are, or soon will be, ready to close.
Only 16 of those 83 contracts are contingent contracts. Mortgage contingencies are becoming rare in a market with only 2 months of supply. Cash really is king. If you do need a mortgage to close, you really, really need to get underwritten pre-approved so the only thing that you need is an appraisal to get bank approval.
Very Low Months of Supply Will Stay Low
In most price categories, we have only a few weeks of supply. From $800,000 to $5 million we have less than 2 months of supply, because we only have 39 total listings to sell in that broad price range.
Historically, we see very few listings in December as we are in the heart of the holidays. But, remember those 12 blue moons in November, that came on and went to contract in the same month. Given our strong demand, anything that comes on in December at a decent price has a good chance of being under contract by the end of the month.
In November, we also had an additional 15 sales that came on in the second half of October and went to contract in less than 30 days. In the second half of November, we don’t see quite as many new listings as that is Thanksgiving time.
Listing in December?
The demand is out there. While, it is totally heretical, if you have a nice house, in a hot neighborhood, and put it on at a good price, the odds are that it will go for over list price even this late in the year. Inventory is down across the border and sales are up. In November with our above average level of sales, half of our sales were for full list or over list. The most over list in November sales was 17 Meadow Drive going for 44% over list.
High-end Sales Continue to Amaze With Help From Mamdani Effect
We saw 5 sales for over $10 million and 9 sales from $5 – 10 million. While you can never be sure, why a house sold, the Mamdani effect seems to be real, but in the greater metro New York area, it’s not that big an effect. High-end sales did well in NYC also. People had lots of money from very high stock prices, and many of them are worried that those prices won’t be that high next year given falling consumer sentiment.
You can see that there is a Mamdani effect if you look at the time of our increased contracts, which rose significantly as Mamdani’s election looked more certain. Arguably, it’s how we got above average sales in November with minimal inventory. Above, $10 million, the Mamdani effect is clearest as we are going to more than double our previous record of 19 sales over $10 million. We are actually running out of ultra-high-end inventory with only 19 listing over $10 million. We had 33 listings in June of this year.
Our sales and contracts are at extraordinarily high levels given the very low inventory. At the same time that this bump is a big bump in Greenwich, a town of 63,000 people and 23,000 residences; it is a tiny bump up in the overall metro area. There is a lot of money in the stock and bond market that might like an alternative home. (I bet some of the crypto folks are wishing they had one of those nice high-end houses in Greenwich these days. :)
Stay tuned and Happy Holidays!
