January 2026 Greenwich Market Report

Greenwich Home Inventory to Go to Zero on March 29th

January 2026 Greenwich Real Estate Report

As of the end of January 2026, we only had 73 single family home listings and that number has fallen in February. We are now down to 67 listings. We started the year with what has become a tradition over the last four years; every January 1^st has had the lowest inventory ever going back to at least 1976. Prior to Covid, our previous all-time weekly low was 214 listings in the last century. (Thank to my brother, Russ, for the data.)

The last time we had more than 214 listings, our previous all time record low, as noted above, was in July of 2022. This means that for the three and half years, I’ve been writing about record low inventory. By the fourth year, this makes you a little punchy, hence the headline. We are not going to have zero single family home listings at the end of March, but it will probably be below the last week in March 2025, when we had 108 listings available for sale. The result is we will continue to be supply constrained with more demand than supply.

We are not likely to make it over 108 listings by the end of March, because the demand is there, as it was in the fourth quarter of last year and has continued to be so far this year. In January 2026, we sold 37 single family homes. This is actually above our 10-year, pre-Covid average of 34 January sales. In January, our median days on market was a low 31 days. That is a busy market. 

For a little fun with numbers, our average days on market for our 37 January sales was 92 days on market. Most of this two months difference in DOM was due to a single high-end Taconic Road listing that has been on and off the market for a total of 1,226 day since January 2023. The GMLS only counts 1,087 days on market, because back in early 2024, it was off the market for more than 90 days, which resets the GMLS days on market. Still this one listing accounted for most of the skew of the average DOM of 92 days compared to the median DOM of 31 days.

I mentioned in December that January 2026 was likely to be a good month, because we had a lot of contracts waiting to close and we finished above average, which is what happened. That is not likely to be true in February. Those 37 January closings sucked up a bunch of contracts, leaving us with only 41 contracts, many of which aren’t going to close until after February. To break our February 10-year average, we would need more than 33 sales, which is not likely to happen due to the extremely low inventory.

On the flip side, our inventory will go up in February, as is normal, but then again inventory actually dropped for most of February, 2025, due to buyers sucking up what inventory did come on the market in February 2025. Inventory did start going up after that, but the highest 2025 inventory was only 151 listing in May. Also, for all of 2025, we didn’t have one week that exceeded the same week in 2024. The odds say 2026 is likely to continue this 4-year trend, but I’m going to go out on limb and say that our inventory will actually exceed last year’s level, at least for part of 2026.

We have many homeowners that have been aging in place for longer than they like. I just had a retired couple call me this week. They are in 7,000 s.f. house with all three kids long gone. The mortgage is paid off, but taxes and landscaping and HVAC and all the other expenses it takes to live here are depleting their savings. They’d like to downsize; they just need a place to go.

The nice thing is that as the market starts to loosen up, we’ll get a positive feedback loop, as more listings come on buyers of this new inventory, becoming sellers of their present home. This leads to more inventory which leads to more sales and more listings. The fly in this salve is whether high buyer demand will eat up any level of increasing new listings keeping inventory low. Also, our stock market has had a very long run. A stock market correction could give some buyers pause, at least enough to accumulate some inventory here in Greenwich. 

It won’t take a huge number of new listings. In every price category, including over $5 million and over $10 million, we have less than 3 months of supply. (OK, most high-end sellers take their house off the market in the winter, particularly this winter, so our months of supply normally drops in January.). Still, we’ve never seen numbers like this

The one exception to these super-low months of supply is from $1.5 to $2 million, where we have 10 months of supply. We got to that high MoS for that price by having 10 listings and only 1 sale in January. The MoS for that price range will come down, but this anomaly is due to only a few more listings and a few less sales.

We also saw a slight upturn in sales in 2025 for the first time since 2022. Our low inventory is a little deceptive as in this hot market, a fair number of houses go to contract within the same month and never show up in the year-end inventory numbers. Condo inventory in 2025 is also up over 2024, so downsizers should have some places to go.

Amazingly, February is actually a good month to list a house. I’m in a bidding battle right now for a house that recently listed, even with all this snow.

Stay tuned, 2026 is going to be an interesting year.

Mark Pruner is a realtor with Compass Connecticut and is a founder of the Greenwich Streets Team. He can be reached at 203-817-2871 pr or [email protected]