Greenwich’s 2022 Real Estate Records - 12/23/22

In 2022, we had 637 single-family home sales which is just above our 10-year pre-Covid average of 621 sales, but that is one of the few normal statistics in this year’s Greenwich real estate market. We had possibly the tightest market ever earlier this year in March 2022. At that time, most price ranges all the way up to $4 million only had a few weeks of supply. Buyer demand was high and houses that had sat on the market for years were selling. The market was in a frenzy for the few houses that were available.

Overall, it was a fascinating ride, that is if you like to go on midnight roller-coaster rides where things go up and down and lurch around corners in unexpected directions and it’s often unclear what is next. So, let’s take a look at the highlights and lowlights from this year’s market. 

I. Inventory & Months of Supply

Fast forward to December 2022 and our months of supply is actually very similar to March 2022 with all price categories under 16 months of supply the traditional dividing line between a buyer’s and a seller’s market. The one exception to this is over $10 million where we are looking at 2.5 years of supply.

Looked at this way our market is doing very well, however, if you take December’s sales and annualize them then everything over $3 million is a buyer’s market even with only 134 total listings, which is a record low for inventory.  Conversely, we still have good demand under $3 million for the 43 houses on the market. Under $1.5 million we only have 14 houses listed, which is almost certainly a record.

II. Highest Sale

A. By Neighborhoods over $10 Million.

1. Backcountry – 435 Round Hill Road - $17,616,666
2. Mid-country – 32 Grahampton Lane - $12,800,000
3. South of Post Road – 2 Broad Rd - $10,675,000
4. Old Greenwich – 25 Nawthorne - $10,550,000

Probably no market changed more year to year than our over $10 million market. We have had 9 sales over $10 million this year and we have another 1 under contract. This compares to 15 sales over $10 million in 2022. While noticeably low, it doesn’t seem that bad until you look at the actual sales.

This year our highest-priced sale of the year was in the backcountry at 435 Round Hill Rd for $17.6 million. Last year our highest sale was for $50,000,000 and we had 3 sales over $27 million. This year our third highest sales was for $12.3 million. In total, we have sold $109 million of houses over $10 million this year compared to last year’s total sales of $272 million for those 15 houses sold for over $10 million.

This drop of $174 million in sales volume at the high-end is due to L.o.W; Loss of Wealth. The stock markets, bond markets and cryptocurrency have erased trillions of dollars of paper wealth. When your portfolio is down by tens of millions of dollars, you are not likely to go out and buy a house for $20 million. Conversely, if you were sitting on a lot of paper gains in 2021, taking some of that off the table and putting it in Greenwich real estate can seem like a good idea.

BTW: These numbers are all based on the Greenwich MLS numbers and do not include private sales. I know of at least one private sale for $25 million, so the high-end may not be as bleak as the publicly reported numbers indicate.

III. Lowest Sales Price

A. By Neighborhood

1. Pemberwick – 16 Homestead Lane - $350,000 OLP - $299,000 = 17.1% over list – 8 DOM
2. Byram – 179 S. Water St - $510,000
3. Old Greenwich – 39 Rockmere Ave - $622,500
4. Riverside – 8 Cary Road - $640,000

As you might expect our two lowest priced sales were in Pemberwick and Byram our two most affordable neighborhoods. Surprisingly, our next two lowest priced neighborhoods were Old Greenwich and Riverside. North of the Post Road, both Old Greenwich and Riverside have R-7 zones (.17 acres minimum lot sizes) that are surprisingly affordable. Then again, none of our lowest priced houses are in move-in condition, so these sales prices do not reflect the buyer’s total first year costs.

IV. Biggest House

B. By Neighborhood

1. Central Greenwich – 17 Hemlock Drive - $10,390,000 – 20,298 s.f.
2. Mid-Country – 504 North St. - $8,300,000 – 16,758 s.f.
3. Backcountry – 44 Mooreland Rd - $9,995,000 – 15,795
4. Riverside – 117 Meadow Rd - $9,600,000 – 9,356 s.f.

Everyone knows if you want a house with a lot of indoor space, backcountry is the place to go. This year to go along with most everything being different, our biggest house was just east of downtown where you could buy 20,300 s.f. for $10.4 million.

Mid-country had our second largest house and even Riverside had a 9,400 s.f. house. NB: These numbers are all done by area, so while Riverside was the fourth neighborhood, you had to go past 29 other larger houses in mid-country and backcountry to get this fourth neighborhood. (But we have to keep our readers from all neighborhoods interested and get people from Riverside to continue reading.)

V. Smallest House

A. By Neighborhood

1. Riverside – 8 Cary Road - $640,000 – 640 s.f.
2. Pemberwick – 16 Homestead Lane - $350,000 – 720 s.f.
3. Byram – 179 S. Water St - $510,000 - 792 s.f.
4. Old Greenwich - 21 Brownhouse Rd - $1,075,000 – 1,020 s.f

What people think of as starter homes are getting bigger and bigger, but we still have homes under 1,000 s.f. that sold this year. OK, there were only 5 homes that sold this year that were less than 1,000 s.f. Interestingly, 3 of those 5 homes are in Riverside, while none are in Old Greenwich. The smallest home you could buy in Old Greenwich was 20 square feet over 1,000 s.f.

VI. Inventory

1. Lowest – 140 listings - 3^rd week of March – (2019 – 581 listings)
2. Highest – 227 listings - 3^rd week of Sept - (2019 – 630 listings)

Every week this year we set a new record for lowest inventory of all time. If you look at the line of weekly inventory in 2022, it never crosses the weekly inventory line for 2021 which was already low

VII. Days on Market

A. By Neighborhood

1. South of Post Rd - 13 Meadow Wood Drive - $2,100,000 – 1,378 DOM = 3.8 years
2. Midcountry – 41 Birchwood Dr. – 1036 DOM
3. North of Parkway – 20 Sherwood Ave - $7,510,00 – 694 DOM
4. Old Greenwich – 8 Tomac Ave - $2,200,000 – 502 DOM

When you are in a tight market, one thing that happens is that houses that have been sitting for over a year find buyers. This year we had a house sell that had been on the market for more than 3.8 years. Of course, last year, when there were active buyers throughout the year, we had a house sell that had been on for 5.2 years. (I’ve always wondered what it’s like to keep a house ready to show year after year, waiting for that special buyer, that bonds with your house.) 

VIII. Acres

1. Largest – 534 Riversville Rd - $7,312,500 – 10.7 acres
2. Smallest – 39 Sherwood Place - $1,425,000 – 0.07 acres

Our smallest lot sale almost matched last year’s 0.06 acres, this year it came in at 0.07 acres or 400 square feet bigger, about the size of some of our kitchens. In fact, at 0.07 acres or 3,050 s.f., the lot is smaller than our average size house’s interior. Then again, I’d take a house with some land over most NYC apartments. :)

IX. OLP vs SP

1. Most over list – 15 Skyridge Rd. LP $1,499,000 – SP $2,100,000 40% over LP
2. 630 sales – 225 over LP, 104 at LP = 329 at or over list or 52%

The first 7 months of the year was very competitive with 52% of houses going for list or over list price. The record was not in Old Greenwich and not in April, but in backcountry in October where 15 Skyridge was listed on October 4^th for $1,499,000 and had signed, non-contingent contract on October 18^th. There is a local saying that you can’t ever price a house in Greenwich too low and this is the perfect illustration of that.

So, for next year it all depends on inventory. My brother Russ and I have 3 houses we are getting ready to put on in January, houses that we probably would have waited in prior  years to put on in March, but we always believe in listing when the market tells you to do so.